人民币汇率波动对传递贸易企业出口影响研究

发布时间：2018-01-24 20:00

本文关键词： 汇率波动出口二元边际传递贸易企业　出处：《大连理工大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：中国已经成为世界上最大的工业品制造商和出口商,在国际贸易中具有重要的地位,在交易过程中,汇率作为重要的桥梁对一国的出口有着重要的作用。因此,人民币汇率发生变动时,中国出口企业会受到如何的影响,一直是各方关注的重点,本文将就此展开研究。此外,随着对企业出口的深入研究,大量事实表明在我国出口企业中存在着一类特殊的企业,即传递贸易企业。传递贸易企业在同一商品分类下进行双向贸易,其特征是自身进行生产的同时,出口本身并不生产的产品。大量数据表明,传递贸易企业在我国出口贸易中占据一定地位,那么传递贸易企业存在的优势是什么,面对汇率波动会进行怎样调整,在随后的实证中将会进行研究。本文首先从理论分析入手,对实证研究中的相关概念进行界定,其中关于传递贸易企业的理论在国内研究较少,为此着重对其进行介绍。在此基础上,回顾关于企业出口行为的经典理论,即汇率理论和异质性贸易理论,最终结合经典模型及理论分析,构建回归模型。根据相关研究,本文提出了2个假设,假设汇率变动对于企业出口产品范围,出口目的地数量以及出口产品深度产生全面抑制作用。对于传递贸易企业,在上述研究的基础上,假设汇率升值会使得传递贸易企业从三个方面增加传递贸易产品出口。为验证假设,本文选取了工业企业数据库和海关数据库进行匹配蹄选,对其重要指标进行计算,分类以及回归。最后得到一个包含159965个观测值,涵盖了2001-2006年的样本,对数据进行winsor处理,面板数据固定效应分析。实证结果表明:人民币汇率升值,对我国企业的出口产生全面抑制作用。首先,企业出口产品范围下降,这意味着企业会集中资源进行核心产品的生产出口,提高了企业的出口集中度,加速了企业之间的竞争。同时产品出口总额下降,出口地数量下降,出口覆盖率上升,企业将面临全面出口困境。进一步,为了对我国传递贸易企业的真实出口情况进行研究,在分析传递贸易企业出口二元边际的基础上,研究在汇率波动情况下,其传递贸易产品出口强度的变化,发现随着人民币汇率升值,传递贸易产品出口总额增加,出口种类增加,出口国增加。最后,结合本文结论,提出政策建议。
[Abstract]:China has become the largest manufacturer and exporter of industrial products in the world and plays an important role in international trade. In the course of trading, the exchange rate plays an important role in the export of a country as an important bridge. When the RMB exchange rate changes, how the Chinese export enterprises will be affected has always been the focus of attention. This paper will study this issue. In addition, with the in-depth study of enterprise exports. A large number of facts show that there is a special class of enterprises in China's export enterprises, that is, transfer trade enterprises, which carry out two-way trade under the same commodity classification, which is characterized by their own production at the same time. Export itself does not produce products. A large number of data show that the transmission trade enterprises in China's export trade occupies a certain position, so what is the advantage of the transfer trade enterprises. In the face of exchange rate fluctuations how to adjust, in the subsequent empirical study will be carried out. Firstly, this paper starts with theoretical analysis to define the relevant concepts in empirical research. Among them, the theory of transfer trade enterprises is less studied in China, so it focuses on its introduction. On this basis, we review the classical theory of enterprise export behavior, that is, exchange rate theory and heterogeneous trade theory. Finally, combined with the classical model and theoretical analysis, a regression model is constructed. According to the relevant research, this paper puts forward two assumptions, assuming the exchange rate changes for the scope of enterprise export products. The number of export destinations and the depth of export products have a comprehensive inhibitory effect. For the transfer trade enterprises, on the basis of the above research. Assume that exchange rate appreciation will make the transfer trade enterprises increase export from three aspects. In order to verify the hypothesis, this paper selects the industrial enterprise database and the customs database for matching selection. The important indexes were calculated, classified and regressed. Finally, a sample of 159965 observations covering the period of 2001-2006 was obtained, and the data were processed by winsor. Panel data fixed effect analysis. Empirical results show that: the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate has a comprehensive impact on the export of Chinese enterprises. First, the scope of enterprise export products declined. This means that enterprises will concentrate resources for the production and export of core products, increase the degree of export concentration, accelerate the competition among enterprises, and at the same time, the total export volume of products will decrease, and the number of export places will decrease. With the increase of export coverage, enterprises will face the overall export dilemma. Further, in order to study the real export situation of China's transfer trade enterprises, on the basis of analyzing the dual marginal value of the export of the transfer trade enterprises. In the case of exchange rate fluctuation, the change of export intensity of the transfer trade products is studied. It is found that with the appreciation of RMB exchange rate, the total export volume of the transfer trade products increases, the export types increase, and the exporting countries increase. Finally. Combined with the conclusion of this paper, the policy recommendations are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：大连理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F832.6;F752.62

【参考文献】