日本加入TPP对中国对日出口的影响

发布时间：2018-01-25 02:01

本文关键词： TPP 贸易转移引力模型出口产品相似性指数　出处：《东北财经大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：金融危机后的世界各国经济复苏乏力,步履维艰,越来越希望通过贸易自由化来促进经济增长。特别是21世纪以来,双边或多边自由贸易协议如雨后春笋,“跨太平洋伙伴关系协议”(Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement, TPP)正是此背景下的产物之一。自2009年美国加入TPP后,TPP规模迅速扩大,尤其是日本的加入更是极大的扩充了TPP的经济实力和影响力。目前TPP成员国已经达到12个,经济总量占到全球经济总量40%,贸易额占全球贸易的1/3。有别于以往的自由贸易协定,TPP是一个高水平的自由贸易协定,协定内容不仅包括货物贸易,还涵盖服务贸易、劳动、投资、环境等众多领域。因此,TPP的发展将对世界经济和政治产生重大影响,会改变亚太地区乃至世界范围内的经济合作方式。此外,中国作为世界第二大经济体和亚太地区的重要大国,目前并没有被邀请加入TPP,这将导致中国不可避免地受到TPP的影响。一直以来,日本都是中国的重要贸易伙伴,中日贸易关系取得了长足发展。但当前中日贸易受到诸多负面因素的影响,中日韩自由贸易区谈判也止步不前,而日本却选择加入由美国主导的TPP,其目的和意图值得研究。本文以日本贸易结构为基础,从贸易转移的角度,分析其加入TPP给中国对日出口带来的影响。本文运用定量与定性相结合的研究方法,第一部分简要介绍了研究此论题的背景与意义、国内外的研究成果、研究的思路与内容、研究方法和本文的创新与不足之处：第二部分回顾了TPP的发展历程,分析其内容及特点,并从政治与经济两方面研究了日本加入TPP的背景；第三部分运用大量的中贸易数据,分析中日贸易现状,以及从商品结构、贸易地位和贸易方式三个方面研究中日贸易关系的变化；第四部分首先介绍日本加入TPP对中国对日出口的影响的机理,并通过面板数据引力模型和产品出口相似性指数等工具分析了对中国对日出口产生的影响；第五部分是对前文的总结,并结合中国所面临的现实,提出针对性的建议。研究结果表明,日本加入TPP有其政治和经济两方面的考量,将会对中日贸易的发展前景产生不利影响。特别是日本加入TPP会降低日本对中国商品进口的依赖,转而加强自TPP成员国的进口,使中国相关产业受到负面影响。当前国内外对TPP的研究主要集中在大国动机、制度特征等方面,而成员国间、成员国与非成员国间具体贸易关系变化的研究很少见。因此,本文的创新之处就在于使用引力模型和产品出口相似性指数具体分析日本加入TPP给中国对日出口带来的影响。不足之处在于本文的研究是建立在TPP谈判能够成功的基础之上的,同时由于rPP仍然在不断地发展,还会有更多的国家或地区加入其中,所以,本文的研究结果可能会与现实有所出入。此外,限于笔者的研究能力,对该问题的分析尚不够深入、彻底,还存在进一步完善的空间。
[Abstract]:After the financial crisis, the recovery of the world economy is weak and the world is struggling to promote economic growth through trade liberalization. Especially since 21th century, bilateral or multilateral free trade agreements have sprung up. Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement. TPPs are one of the products in this context. Since 2009, when the United States joined the TPP, the size of the TPP has expanded rapidly. In particular, Japan's entry has greatly expanded the economic strength and influence of the TPP. At present, the number of TPP member countries has reached 12, accounting for 40% of the global total economic volume. The TPP is a high level of free trade agreement, which includes not only trade in goods, but also trade in services, labor, and investment. Therefore, the development of TPP will have a significant impact on the world economy and politics, and will change the way of economic cooperation in the Asia-Pacific region and even around the world. China, the world's second-largest economy and a major power in the Asia-Pacific region, has not been invited to join, which will inevitably lead China to be affected by the TPP. Japan has been an important trading partner of China, and Sino-Japanese trade relations have made great progress. However, at present, Sino-Japanese trade is affected by many negative factors, and Sino-Japanese free trade zone negotiations have also stalled. However, the purpose and intention of Japan to join TPPs led by the United States is worth studying. This paper is based on the trade structure of Japan and from the perspective of trade transfer. This paper analyzes the impact of China's entry into TPP on China's exports to Japan. The first part briefly introduces the background and significance of the research, the research results at home and abroad, the ideas and contents of the research. Research methods and innovations and shortcomings of this paper: the second part reviews the development of TPP, analyzes its content and characteristics, and studies the background of Japan's entry into TPP from the political and economic aspects; The third part uses a large number of Sino-Japanese trade data, analyzes the current situation of Sino-Japanese trade, and studies the changes of Sino-Japanese trade relations from three aspects: commodity structure, trade status and trade mode. In the 4th part, the mechanism of Japan's entry into TPP on China's exports to Japan is introduced, and the influence on China's exports to Japan is analyzed by panel data gravitation model and product export similarity index. The 5th part is a summary of the above, and combined with the reality that China is facing, put forward targeted suggestions. The research results show that Japan's accession to the TPP has its political and economic considerations. In particular, Japan's entry into the TPP will reduce Japan's dependence on Chinese imports and increase imports from TPP member countries. China's related industries have been adversely affected. At present, the research on TPP is mainly focused on the motivation of big countries, institutional characteristics, and so on, while the research on the change of specific trade relations between member countries and non-member countries is very rare. The innovation of this paper lies in the use of gravitation model and product export similarity index to analyze the impact of Japan's entry into TPP on China's exports to Japan. The shortcoming of this paper is that the research is based on the TPP negotiation. On the basis of success. At the same time, as rPP is still developing, there will be more countries or regions to join, so the research results of this paper may be different from the reality. In addition, limited to the author's research ability. The analysis of the problem is not deep enough, thorough, there is room for further improvement.
【学位授予单位】：东北财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F744;F752.7

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