基于面板数据引力模型的广东省贸易潜力分析

发布时间：2018-01-25 03:04

本文关键词： 广东省贸易引力模型贸易潜力　出处：《华南理工大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：地处中国沿海地区的广东省,是我国典型的外向型经济发展区,为我国改革开放三十多年经济能够高速发展的做出了重要贡献。在全球经济复苏缓慢、美国战略重心向亚太转移、阿拉伯世界动乱频繁、中日关系日趋紧张以及东海、南海争端不断的时代背景下,广东省经济高速发展所依赖的对外贸易面临着前所未有的挑战。为进一步使广东省的经济得到可持续发展,这需要我们在多元视角与世界视野中穿越历史、现实与未来,将国际经济、政治、文化、宗教、科学技术等多方面相结合进行研究。本文通过利用贸易引力模型,对广东省与36个主要贸易伙伴国(地区)1993-2012年的贸易流,采用面板数据的方法估计贸易引力模型进行回归分析,以探讨影响广东省对外贸易的主要因素,特别是在加入WTO和区域贸易协定对贸易整体的作用,以及对广东省的贸易潜力进行分析。文章从广东省对外贸易早期发展概况为出发点,在从贸易总量、结构和竞争力三个角度对广东省的贸易现状进行分析的基础上,首先对贸易引力模型进行了修正,并对样本选择和数据来源进行了分析。然后,通过对比不同的数据处理和回归方法的选择,对引力模型的设定和估计方法的选择进行了较为全面的分析。在各种方法估计结果的基础上,选择最合适的贸易引力模型方法,并分析了四个不同样本的贸易引力模型的回归结果,对模型的适用性进行了验证。再次,运用贸易引力模型对广东省的贸易潜力进行分析,估计一个预测值,包括出口潜力和进口潜力。最后,根据四个样本贸易引力模型回归分析结果和贸易潜力分析结果,给出主要结论,并期望能提供相应的政策建议。
[Abstract]:Guangdong Province, which is located in the coastal areas of China, is a typical export-oriented economic development area in China. It has made an important contribution to the rapid economic development of our country for more than 30 years of reform and opening up, and has been slowly recovering in the global economy. The strategic focus of the United States shifted to the Asia-Pacific region, the frequent turmoil in the Arab world, the growing tension between China and Japan, and the East China Sea, the South China Sea disputes in the background of the times. The foreign trade on which the rapid economic development of Guangdong Province depends is facing unprecedented challenges. In order to further make the economy of Guangdong Province sustainable development, we need to cross the history in the view of multiple perspectives and the world. Reality and future, the international economy, politics, culture, religion, science and technology and other aspects of the study. A regression analysis of trade flows between Guangdong Province and 36 major trading partner countries (regions) from 1993 to 2012 was carried out by using panel data to estimate trade gravity model. In order to explore the main factors affecting Guangdong's foreign trade, especially in the accession to WTO and regional trade agreements on the overall role of trade. From the perspective of the early development of foreign trade in Guangdong Province, the paper analyzes the trade potential of Guangdong Province. Based on the analysis of the trade situation in Guangdong Province from the perspective of structure and competitiveness, this paper first modifies the trade gravity model, and analyzes the sample selection and data source. By comparing the selection of different data processing and regression methods, the selection of gravity model and estimation method is analyzed comprehensively. On the basis of the estimation results of various methods. Choose the most suitable trade gravity model method, and analyze the regression results of four different samples of trade gravity model, and verify the applicability of the model. Using the trade gravity model to analyze the trade potential of Guangdong Province, estimate a forecast value, including export potential and import potential. Finally. According to the results of regression analysis of four sample trade gravity models and the results of trade potential analysis, the main conclusions are given, and the corresponding policy recommendations are expected to be provided.
【学位授予单位】：华南理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F752.8

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