中国与中南半岛经济走廊的贸易潜力研究

发布时间：2018-01-26 09:02

本文关键词： 中南半岛经济走廊贸易潜力随机前沿引力模型　出处：《山东师范大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：“一带一路”战略是中国对外开放的一项重大战略决策,具有重大的历史和现实意义。中国-中南半岛经济走廊为“一带一路”战略建设的六大经济走廊之一,其建设的核心和实质是新时代背景下的区域合作战略,为中国与中南半岛各国之间的经济贸易合作提供了新思路和新机遇,将进一步深化中国和中南半岛国家之间的交流与合作,开创中国与中南半岛之间贸易和经济合作的历史新时代。本文以中国与中南半岛之间的贸易为研究对象,通过理论研究与实证分析相结合的方法,重点论证中南半岛经济走廊建设对中国与中南半岛贸易潜力的影响。首先对中南半岛经济走廊、贸易潜力和贸易效率等概念进行了界定,随后分别从“一带一路”、中南半岛经济走廊、贸易潜力以及随机前沿引力模型应用四个角度进行综述,为整篇论文的开展奠定理论基础。之后探讨了中南半岛经济走廊建设对中国与中南半岛贸易潜力影响的作用机理:根据空间价格均衡模型,基础设施建设互通互联提高贸易效率;根据投资产生的贸易创造效应,丝路基金拓展贸易合作。利用空间价格均衡模型和贸易创造效应,阐述中国-中南半岛经济走廊建设中,基础设施互通互联提高贸易效率、丝路基金拓展贸易合作,从理论层面对中南半岛经济走廊建设对中国与中南半岛经济走廊贸易潜力的影响进行研究,从而为实证研究做铺垫。在理论分析的基础上,研究了中国与中南半岛贸易发展现状和潜力以及影响贸易潜力的主要因素,中国与中南半岛的贸易潜力巨大,主要表现在:贸易额保持快速增长;经济和贸易合作的互补性较强;贸易投资存在巨大潜力。紧接着从理论层面探索了中国与中南半岛贸易潜力的影响因素,主要有经济发展水平、航运距离、中国-东盟自贸区的成立以及打造中国-东盟自贸区升级版、海上经贸合作等。在分析贸易现状和潜力的基础上,为了从数量上测算中南半岛经济走廊建设对中国与中南半岛贸易潜力的影响,本文采用随机前沿分析方法,对2006-2015年中南半岛7国10年的面板数据进行随机前沿分析,通过建立随机前沿引力模型与贸易非效率模型,对中国与中南半岛经济走廊国家的贸易潜力及其影响因素进行分析,用双边贸易效率反映贸易潜力,得出如下结论:(1)随机前沿分析方法适用于研究双边贸易潜力的估测;(2)贸易非效率项具有时变性;(3)贸易潜力的影响因素;(4)双边贸易处于非效率状态,双边贸易具有很大的提升空间;(5)贸易非效率项对双边的影响。最后,本文基于理论与实证分析提出通过中南半岛经济走廊建设,发掘中国与中南半岛贸易潜力的建议。
[Abstract]:The "Belt and Road" strategy is a major strategic decision of China's opening to the outside world, and has great historical and practical significance. The China-Indochina Peninsula Economic Corridor is one of the six economic corridors of the strategic construction of "Belt and Road". The core and essence of its construction is the strategy of regional cooperation under the background of the new era, which provides new ideas and opportunities for the economic and trade cooperation between China and the countries of Indochina Peninsula. It will further deepen the exchanges and cooperation between China and the Indochina Peninsula countries, and create a new historical era of trade and economic cooperation between China and the Indochina Peninsula. This paper takes the trade between China and the Indochina Peninsula as the research object. Through the combination of theoretical research and empirical analysis, this paper focuses on the impact of the construction of the Indochina Peninsula Economic Corridor on the trade potential between China and the Indochina Peninsula. First of all, the Indochina Peninsula Economic Corridor. The concepts of trade potential and trade efficiency are defined and summarized from four perspectives: Belt and Road, Indochina Economic Corridor, Trade potential and Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model. After that, the paper discusses the influence mechanism of the economic corridor construction on the trade potential between China and the Indochina Peninsula: according to the spatial price equilibrium model. (B) Infrastructure connectivity to improve trade efficiency; According to the trade creation effect of investment, the Silk Road Fund expands the trade cooperation. Using the spatial price equilibrium model and the trade creation effect, the paper expounds the construction of the economic corridor between China and the Indochina Peninsula. Infrastructure interconnection to improve trade efficiency, the Silk Road Fund to expand trade cooperation, from a theoretical level to the Indochina Peninsula Economic Corridor construction on the trade potential of China and Indochina Peninsula Economic Corridor. On the basis of theoretical analysis, the paper studies the current situation and potential of trade development between China and Indochina Peninsula and the main factors affecting trade potential. The trade potential between China and Indochina Peninsula is huge. The main manifestations are as follows: the volume of trade keeps increasing rapidly; Economic and trade cooperation is highly complementary; There is great potential in trade and investment. Then it explores the influence factors of trade potential between China and Indochina Peninsula from the theoretical level, mainly the level of economic development, shipping distance. The establishment of the China-ASEAN Free Trade area and the creation of an upgraded version of the China-ASEAN Free Trade area, maritime economic and trade cooperation, etc. Based on the analysis of the current situation and potential of trade. In order to measure quantitatively the influence of the construction of Indochina Economic Corridor on the trade potential between China and the Indochina Peninsula, this paper adopts the stochastic frontier analysis method. The panel data of 7 countries in the Indochina Peninsula from 2006 to 2015 were analyzed by stochastic frontier analysis, and the random frontier gravity model and trade inefficiency model were established. This paper analyzes the trade potential between China and the Indochina Peninsula Economic Corridor countries and its influencing factors, and reflects the trade potential with bilateral trade efficiency. The conclusion is as follows: 1) the stochastic frontier analysis method is suitable for estimating the potential of bilateral trade; (2) the term of trade inefficiency is time-varying; (III) factors affecting trade potential; (4) bilateral trade is in an inefficient state, and bilateral trade has great room for improvement; Finally, based on the theoretical and empirical analysis, this paper puts forward some suggestions to explore the trade potential between China and the Indochina Peninsula through the construction of the Indochina Economic Corridor.
【学位授予单位】：山东师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F752.7

【参考文献】