低碳经济背景下我国出口商品结构与经济增长的关系研究

发布时间：2018-01-29 11:52

本文关键词： 低碳经济出口商品结构初级产品工业制成品经济增长　出处：《哈尔滨工业大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：在我国的经济发展水平和国际化水平不断提高的同时,我国的出口商品构成也在一定程度上发生了转变,出口贸易完成了从初级产品向工业制成品的过渡。然而,这种长期高能耗、高排放、高污染、低附加值的对外贸易模式,导致大量资源被耗费,CO2排放量也日益提高。如今全球气候变化对经济增长和出口商品结构优化造成了严重威胁,因此,在低碳经济的背景下研究出口商品结构与经济增长的关系对优化对外贸易结构、保证经济的可持续发展具有重要意义。研究运用回归分析的方法建立向量自相关模型对低碳经济背景下我国出口商品结构与经济增长关系进行分析。在考察低碳经济、出口商品结构和经济增长之间的联系时发现,一方面,为了促进经济和对外贸易发展,大量资源被消耗,如若经济发展和对外贸易的结构不相适应则还有可能会对环境造成破坏,即经济与对外贸易不协调会造成资源短缺、环境污染等问题。另一方面,由于我国长期三高一低落后的经济发展模式导致环境的恶化和损坏,资源匮乏、生态破坏等一系列问题又阻碍了我国的商品出口和经济增长。研究选取了我国1985-2013年间的初级产品出口、工业制成品出口、国内生产总值和二氧化碳排放量的年度数据,其中,初级产品出口和工业制成品出口是出口商品结构的测度,国内生产总值是经济发展的衡量指标,CO2排放量是生产对经济发展产生的负效应和低碳经济约束,运用多种计量分析方法对模型进行回归和检验。结果表明,我国的商品出口与经济增长之间存在着非常紧密的关系,并且从长期来看,工业制成品在拉动经济增长方面的作用要明显大于初级产品,但是在短期却恰好相反;工业制成品的出口会产生大量的CO2排放,但是反过来CO2的排放却没有对工业制成品的出口产生影响,即,工业制成品的出口是造成环境恶化的原因。总结探讨低碳经济、对外贸易和经济增长的短期动态调整和长期平衡关系,说明发展低碳经济在优化我国出口商品结构保证我国经济的持续、稳定、健康发展方面的重要作用。根据实证结果提出相应的对策建议,说明为缓解对外贸易和经济增长所面临的环境压力,我国需要推动加工贸易转型升级,提高出口产品附加值、促进产业结构转型,优化出口商品结构、鼓励低碳能源技术创新,大力发展低碳产业。
[Abstract]:In the continuous improvement of China's economic development level and the international level at the same time, China's export commodity structure has changed to a certain extent, the export trade completed the transition from primary products to manufactured goods. However, the long-term high energy consumption, high emissions, high pollution and low added value of foreign trade mode, resulting in a large number of resource waste, CO2 emissions are increasing. Now the global climate change on economic growth and optimization of export commodity structure caused a serious threat, therefore, research on export commodity structure and the economic growth in the low carbon economy under the background of the relationship to optimize the foreign trade structure, it has important meaning to ensure the sustainable development of the economy. Study on using regression analysis method to analyze the establishment of vector auto correlation model of low carbon economy under the background of the export commodity structure and the economic growth in China. In the study of low carbon economy, On the one hand, between commodity export structure and economic growth relations, in order to promote economic and trade development, a large number of resources consumption, economic development and foreign trade structure should not adapt to and may cause damage to the environment, the economy and the foreign trade coordination will cause the shortage of resources, environmental pollution etc. the problem. On the other hand, because of our long three high and one low backward mode of economic development leads to the deterioration and damage the environment, lack of resources, a series of problems of ecological damage has hindered China's commodity exports and economic growth. The research selects China's 1985-2013 years of primary products exports, exports of manufactured goods, the annual the data of GDP and CO2 emissions in the export of primary products and manufactured goods export is a measure of the export commodity structure, the gross domestic product of economic development Measure, CO2 emissions are negative effects on economic development and production of low carbon economic constraints, using quantitative analysis method and regression to test the model. The results show that there is a very close relationship between exports and economic growth in China, and in the long run, the effect of industrial manufactured goods in terms of the economic growth is significantly higher than that of primary products, but in the short term is the opposite; the export of manufactured goods will produce a large amount of CO2 emission, but the emission of CO2 in turn has not affected the export of manufactured goods, that is, the export of manufactured goods is the cause of the deterioration of the environment. To investigate the low carbon economy, short-term dynamic adjustment and the long-term equilibrium relationship between foreign trade and economic growth, indicating the development of low carbon economy to ensure sustained, the stability of China's economy in China's export commodity structure optimization, health The important role of development. Puts forward the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions according to the empirical results, that faces to alleviate the foreign trade and economic growth environmental pressure, China needs to promote the transformation and upgrading of processing trade, improve the added value of export products, and promote the transformation of industrial structure, optimize the structure of export commodities, encourage low-carbon energy technology innovation, vigorously develop low carbon industry.

【学位授予单位】：哈尔滨工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F752.62;F124.5

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