税负、管制与服务业发展

发布时间：2018-01-29 11:24

本文关键词： 税负管制服务业发展供给侧改革　出处：《浙江大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：2016年5月16日,中共中央总书记习近平指出"当前我国经济发展中有周期性、总量性问题,但结构性问题最突出,矛盾的主要方面在供给侧"。那么在当前供给侧结构性改革的深化阶段,"简政减税"作为新一届政府大力推行的改革将如何解决"服务业滞后发展"这一我国最主要的供给侧结构问题呢?为了回答这一问题,本文基于现有研究,首先从理论上探讨了税负、管制影响服务业发展的作用机制,并提出四个基本假说:假说1:税负、管制会抑制服务业的发展;假说2:税负在经济发展水平的作用下会对服务业发展产生异质性的影响,随着经济发展水平的提高,税负对服务业发展的负效应逐步减小,而管制对服务业发展的抑制效应愈加凸显;假说3:税负、管制在经济周期的作用下会对服务业发展产生异质性的影响。税负在经济衰退期的负效应更大,管制在经济繁荣期将对服务业发展产生抑制效应,而在经济衰退期产生促进效应;假说4:不同服务业行业中,税负、管制对行业发展的影响可能有所差异。其次,本文选取2004-2013年中国31个省份的省级面板数据,分别利用静态面板模型和动态面板模型验证了假说1。同时本文又利用交互项回归、门限回归、分组回归等方法,探究了税负、管制对服务业发展影响的基于经济发展水平、经济周期、行业差异的非线性特征,检验了假说2、假说3和假说4。实证结果表明,税负、管制会对服务业发展会产生显著的抑制作用,但这种作用在不同经济发展阶段、不同经济周期、不同行业中的表现都有差异。具体来说,相较于欠发达经济体,在发达经济体中税负对服务业发展的负效应较小,而管制对服务业发展的负效应要更加明显。在经济衰退阶段,税负将会对服务业发展产生更为严重的负向影响,管制将对服务业的发展表现为促进效应。在经济繁荣期,管制则表现为抑制效应。且由于行业差异,在不同行业中,税负、管制对其发展的影响亦有所不同。上述结论的启示是,当前推进的供给侧改革需因地制宜、因时制宜,结合行业特征,制定差异化的"简政减税"政策,全面促进我国服务业的发展。
[Abstract]:In May 16th 2016, Xi Jinping, general secretary of the CPC Central Committee, pointed out that "at present, there are cyclical and total problems in China's economic development, but structural problems are most prominent." The main aspect of the contradiction lies on the supply-side ". Then, in the deepening stage of the structural reform on the supply-side at present. How to solve the problem of "lagging development of service industry", which is the main supply-side structure problem of our country, is "simplified administration tax reduction" as the reform that the new government vigorously implements? In order to answer this question, based on the existing research, this paper first discusses the mechanism of tax burden and regulation affecting the development of service industry theoretically, and puts forward four basic hypotheses: hypothesis 1: tax burden. Control will inhibit the development of the service industry; Hypothesis 2: under the action of economic development, the tax burden will have a heterogeneous impact on the development of service industry. With the improvement of economic development level, the negative effect of tax burden on the development of service industry will gradually decrease. The inhibitory effect of regulation on the development of service industry is more and more prominent. Hypothesis 3: tax burden, regulation under the role of the economic cycle will have a heterogeneous impact on the development of the service industry. Regulation will have an inhibitory effect on the development of service industry during the period of economic prosperity and a promoting effect in the period of economic decline. Hypothesis 4: in different service industries, the impact of tax burden and regulation on industry development may be different. Secondly, this paper selects the provincial panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2004 to 2013. Using static panel model and dynamic panel model to verify the hypothesis 1. At the same time, this paper uses interactive regression, threshold regression, group regression and other methods to explore the tax burden. The influence of regulation on the development of service industry is based on the nonlinear characteristics of economic development level, economic cycle and industry differences. Hypothesis 2, hypothesis 3 and hypothesis 4. The empirical results show that the tax burden. Regulation can have a significant inhibitory effect on the development of the service industry, but this effect varies in different stages of economic development, in different economic cycles, in different industries, in particular, compared with less developed economies. In the developed economies, the negative effect of tax burden on the development of service industry is relatively small, while the negative effect of regulation on the development of service industry is more obvious. The tax burden will have a more serious negative impact on the development of the service industry. Regulation will have a positive effect on the development of the service industry. In the period of economic prosperity, the regulation will have a negative effect on the development of the service industry. In different industries, the impact of tax burden and regulation on its development is also different. The enlightenment of the above conclusion is that the current supply-side reform should be adapted to local conditions and times, combined with the characteristics of the industry. To formulate the differential tax reduction policy to promote the development of our service industry.
【学位授予单位】：浙江大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F719;F812.42;F715.5

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