安徽省城镇化与第三产业协调发展的实证分析

发布时间：2018-02-21 07:36

本文关键词： 城镇化第三产业协调发展度耦合协调度模型　出处：《上海师范大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：一个国家或地区经济发展水平的重要标志是城镇化水平的高低。城镇化的进程就是第二产业和第三产业不断聚集的过程,随着发达国家工业现代化的实现,第二产业对城镇化的促进作用减弱,第三产业对城镇化的促进作用不断增强。安徽省的城镇化水平目前正处于加速发展的阶段,因此研究安徽省城镇化与第三产业是否协调发展,制约二者协调发展的因素,对政府部门制定协调二者发展的经济政策有直接参考意义。本文以安徽省的城镇化与第三产业的协调发展关系为研究对象。首先根据1 9 9 0一2 0 1 3年的相关历史数据,直观清晰地描述安徽省的城镇化与第三产业的发展历程,以及它们在此时间范围内的现状特征,并与邻近省份的发展现状进行对比。然后运用耦合协调度模型计算2 0 0 0—2 0 1 3年安徽身城镇化与第三产业综合发展水平的协调发展度。安徽省城镇化水平1 9 9 0年到2 0 1 3年间处于加速时期,一直在逐年增加,但是始终低于全国平均城镇化率,且人均生产总值与全国水平相比差距逐渐拉大,增长速度低于全国平均水平,发展水平低于邻近省份且城镇化发展不平衡,城镇化水平的提高主要表现在经济的增长、城镇人口增加及第一产业和第二产业就业人口的增加,而基础设施和居民生活水平方面还有待提高;第三产业方面,目前安徽省的产业结构还处于“二、三、一”的阶段,第三产业产值占地区生产总值的比重依旧远低于第二产业,发展依然集中在传统服务业。与邻近省份相比,发展较落后。运用耦合协调度模型计算2 0 0 0—2 0 1 3年安徽身城镇化与第三产业综合发展水平的协调发展度,通过实证分析得到,在协调发展方面,安徽省城镇化与第三产业的发展从2 0 0 7年开始才勉强进入协调发展类,2 0 0 7年以前一直属于失调、濒临失调状态,城镇化水平发展滞后。随着耦合协调度的提高,城镇化与第三产业发展进入中级协调发展阶段,但城镇化综合发展水平依然低于第三产业。因此得到结论:安徽省城镇化发展滞后于第三产业的发展,二者在发展过程中没有很好的起到相互推动的作用。政府应采取相应措施来提高城镇化水平,如深化户籍改革,实施灵活的人口迁移政策,实现人口有序向城镇聚集;加强安徽省地区第三产业建设,拉动城镇化发展;建设有规模高质量的基础设施,例如道路交通、邮电通讯等关乎国计民生的大事,促进地区经济的发展。
[Abstract]:An important sign of a country's or a region's economic development level is the level of urbanization. The process of urbanization is a process of continuous agglomeration of secondary and tertiary industries. With the realization of industrial modernization in developed countries, The role of the secondary industry in promoting urbanization has weakened, while the role of the tertiary industry in promoting urbanization has been continuously strengthened. At present, the level of urbanization in Anhui Province is at a stage of accelerated development. Therefore, to study the coordinated development of urbanization and tertiary industry in Anhui Province, and the factors restricting their coordinated development, It is of direct reference significance for government departments to formulate economic policies to coordinate their development. This paper takes the coordinated development of urbanization and tertiary industry in Anhui Province as the research object. Firstly, according to the relevant historical data of 190-203, The development course of urbanization and tertiary industry in Anhui Province is described intuitively and clearly, as well as their current characteristics in this time range. By comparing with the current situation of neighboring provinces, the paper calculates the coordinated development of Anhui urbanization and tertiary industry from 2000 to 2003 by using the coupling coordination degree model. The urbanization level of Anhui Province is 1. Between 1990 and 2010, the period was accelerated. It has been increasing year by year, but it is always lower than the national average urbanization rate, and the gap between the per capita GDP and the national level is gradually widening, the growth rate is lower than the national average, the level of development is lower than that of the neighboring provinces and the development of urbanization is not balanced. The increase in the level of urbanization is mainly reflected in the growth of the economy, the increase in the urban population and the increase in the number of employed people in the primary and secondary industries, and the need to improve the infrastructure and living standards of the residents; in the third industry, At present, the industrial structure of Anhui Province is still in the stage of "two, three, one". The proportion of the output value of the tertiary industry in the region's gross domestic product is still far lower than that of the secondary industry, and the development is still concentrated in the traditional service industry. Compared with the neighboring provinces, The coupling coordination degree model is used to calculate the coordinated development degree of Anhui's urbanization and tertiary industry from 2000 to 2003. Through the empirical analysis, it is concluded that, in the aspect of coordinated development, Since 2007, the development of urbanization and tertiary industry in Anhui Province has only reluctantly entered the category of coordinated development before 2007. It has been on the verge of maladjustment, and the level of urbanization has lagged behind. With the increase of coupling and coordination degree, the development of urbanization level is lagging behind. The development of urbanization and tertiary industry has entered the stage of intermediate and coordinated development, but the level of comprehensive development of urbanization is still lower than that of tertiary industry. Therefore, it is concluded that the development of urbanization in Anhui Province lags behind the development of tertiary industry. The government should take corresponding measures to improve the level of urbanization, such as deepening the reform of household registration, implementing flexible policy of population migration, and realizing population gathering to cities and towns in an orderly manner. Strengthening the construction of the tertiary industry in Anhui Province, promoting the development of urbanization, building a high quality infrastructure, such as road traffic, post and telecommunications, and other important issues related to the national economy and people's livelihood, to promote the development of regional economy.
【学位授予单位】：上海师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F299.27;F719

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