制造业出口结构影响出口不稳定性的实证研究

发布时间：2018-03-03 05:10

本文选题：制造业　切入点：出口结构　出处：《湖南大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着经济的全球化发展,出口贸易规模不断扩大,其对于经济发展也产生了重要的影响作用。而在出口快速增长的同时,出口贸易的不稳定性和波动较为明显,全球金融危机的爆发暴露了大部分国家出口容易受到外部冲击。在出口不稳定性的成因中,出口结构一直是最重要的影响因素,但对出口结构方面的定量研究主要集中在商品结构和市场结构,鲜有涉及技术结构对出口不稳定性的影响。而制造业作为一国经济发展的引擎,与经济中其他部门存在紧密的联系和溢出效应,是推动技术进步的主要动力,所以本文构建了制造业的“多维度”出口结构体系,考察出口结构对出口不稳定性的影响,以提出有利于优化出口结构和促进出口稳定的针对性建议。本文在分析出口结构影响出口不稳定性机制的基础上,测算了1999-2012年OECD国家及其主要贸易伙伴国的制造业出口结构指标值和各国出口不稳定性指数,并分析了变化趋势,可知制造业出口商品集中度和出口技术复杂度都呈现上升的趋势,而出口市场集中度总体呈现下降的趋势;出口不稳定性指数受到金融危机的影响呈现“M”型波动。同时结合系统GMM方法,实证研究了出口结构对出口不稳定性的影响。结果显示:出口产品的技术复杂度越高,越有助于保持出口稳定性;商品结构越集中化则越容易导致出口不稳定;而集中化的市场结构在实证分析中表现出对出口稳定微弱的促进作用,但由于当今世界经济的开放性,各国却呈现出市场多元化的趋势。基于实证结果,为平抑出口不稳定性,促进各国经济的持续稳定发展,迫切需要提高出口产品的技术含量,实施出口多元化战略,有效引进外资,以更自如地应对不确定性的国际贸易环境。
[Abstract]:With the development of economic globalization, the scale of export trade is expanding, which has an important effect on economic development. While export is growing rapidly, the instability and fluctuation of export trade are obvious. The outbreak of the global financial crisis has exposed the vulnerability of most countries' exports to external shocks. Among the causes of export instability, the export structure has been the most important factor. However, quantitative studies on export structure are mainly focused on the structure of commodities and markets, and rarely on the impact of technological structure on export instability. Manufacturing is the engine of a country's economic development. There are close relations with other sectors of the economy and spillover effect, which is the main driving force to promote technological progress. Therefore, this paper constructs the "multi-dimensional" export structure system of manufacturing industry, and examines the impact of export structure on export instability. On the basis of analyzing the mechanism of export structure influencing export instability, the paper puts forward some specific suggestions which are beneficial to the optimization of export structure and the promotion of export stability. The index value of manufacturing export structure and the export instability index of OECD countries and their main trading partners from 1999 to 2012 are calculated, and the changing trend is analyzed. It can be seen that the degree of concentration of manufacturing export commodities and the complexity of export technology are both increasing, while the degree of concentration of export market is on the whole decreasing; The impact of the financial crisis on the export instability index is of "M" type. At the same time, the impact of export structure on export instability is studied empirically with the system GMM method. The results show that the technical complexity of export products is higher. The more it helps to maintain export stability; the more centralized the commodity structure, the more likely it is to lead to export instability; and the more centralized the market structure, the weaker the contribution to export stability in empirical analysis, but due to the openness of today's world economy, On the basis of empirical results, in order to stabilize export instability and promote the sustained and stable development of national economies, there is an urgent need to increase the technical content of export products and implement export diversification strategies. Effective introduction of foreign investment to deal with the uncertainty of the international trading environment more freely.
【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F752.62

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