境外水电BOT项目经济风险管理研究

发布时间：2018-03-05 21:13

本文选题：境外水电BOT项目　切入点：经济风险　出处：《北京交通大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：当前,中国政府积极推进“一带一路”建设,稳步发展国际产能合作。面对错综复杂的国际形势,基础设施建营一体化如BOT模式正在成为中国企业对外投资合作的主要方式和载体。水电行业是我国基础产业国际竞争力最强的部门之一,采用BOT方式进行境外水电项目投资,有利于我国电力企业实现全产业链发展,在更高层次参与国际竞争,进行资源和价值链整合,提高综合国际竞争力。但国际形势的多变和投资东道国经济环境政策的不确定性,对境外水电BOT项目的经济风险评估和防范提出了挑战。我国企业境外水电BOT项目起步晚,对于相对陌生的投资方式,存在着诸多经济风险,风险评估和防范不当会给投资企业带来巨大的损失。本文主要研究了境外水电BOT项目经济风险的识别、评估和防范。本文以境外水电BOT项目经济风险为研究对象,在分析水电项目境外经济风险特点的基础上,综合运用文献分析和典型案例分析对境外水电BOT项目存在的经济风险做了系统识别和总结。本文认为境外水电BOT项目经济风险主要分为汇率风险、利率风险、通货膨胀风险和经济政策风险。在识别境外水电BOT项目经济风险的基础上,利用专家打分法和模糊综合评估法建立境外水电BOT项目经济风险评估模型,对境外水电BOT项目经济风险进行评估,并通过柬埔寨甘再水电站项目进行实证分析。最后,本文从企业和政府两个层面提出境外水电BOT项目经济风险应对措施和对策建议。
[Abstract]:At present, the Chinese government is actively promoting the construction of "Belt and Road" and steadily developing international capacity cooperation. In the face of the complicated international situation, The integration of infrastructure construction and management, such as BOT mode, is becoming the main mode and carrier of Chinese enterprises' overseas investment and cooperation. Hydropower industry is one of the most competitive international departments in China's basic industries, and overseas hydropower projects are invested by BOT mode. It is beneficial for Chinese electric power enterprises to realize the development of the whole industry chain, participate in international competition at a higher level, integrate resources and value chains, and improve the comprehensive international competitiveness. This paper presents a challenge to the economic risk assessment and prevention of offshore hydropower BOT projects. The overseas hydropower BOT projects of Chinese enterprises started late, and there are many economic risks for relatively unfamiliar investment modes. Improper risk assessment and prevention will bring huge losses to investment enterprises. This paper mainly studies the identification, evaluation and prevention of economic risks of offshore hydropower BOT projects. On the basis of analyzing the characteristics of overseas economic risks of hydropower projects, The economic risk of offshore hydropower BOT project is systematically identified and summarized by comprehensive literature analysis and typical case analysis. This paper holds that the economic risk of offshore hydropower BOT project is mainly divided into exchange rate risk and interest rate risk. Inflation risk and economic policy risk. On the basis of identifying economic risk of offshore hydropower BOT project, the economic risk assessment model of offshore hydropower BOT project is established by using expert scoring method and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. The economic risk of offshore hydropower BOT project is evaluated, and the empirical analysis is carried out through the Ganzao Hydropower Project in Cambodia. Finally, this paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions on economic risk of offshore hydropower BOT project from the two aspects of enterprise and government.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F282;F416.61;F752.68

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