中国贸易开放的碳排放效应研究

发布时间：2018-03-06 05:28

本文选题：贸易开放　切入点：规模效应　出处：《西北大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：2016年全球平均温度较工业革命前上升1.3摄氏度,紧逼《巴黎协定》设定的温控目标,中国受厄尔尼诺现象影响严重,气候出现明显异常。1978年以来,中国对外贸易获得了突破性进展,同时二氧化碳排放大幅增加,贸易开放与碳排放之间的矛盾日益凸显。如果将碳成本考虑在内,中国出口的低成本优势会不断的弱化甚至消失,贸易开放与碳减排之间的矛盾冲突将会进一步加剧。过去粗放型的增长方式给中国实施可持续发展战略增添了很大阻力,在当前的低碳经济发展背景下,如何处理好贸易发展与低碳转型的关系,发展以“低碳经济”为焦点的绿色贸易,实现贸易与碳排放和谐发展,意义极其重大。中国迫切需要建立低度消耗资源体系,采取节能技术尽可能少地利用资源,提升能源利用效率,加快低碳商品的生产,缓解贸易与碳排放之间的矛盾。基于2000-2014年中国30个省区的数据,本文估算了二氧化碳排放量,利用Global Malmquist-Luenberger指数将二氧化碳排放总量变动分为人均GDP变动、产业结构变动、技术水平变动引起的碳排放;并建立以扩展的STIRPAT模型为基础的数据模型,对全国及东中西三大区域贸易开放的碳排放效应进行测度和分析。笔者认为碳减排不是一下就能实现的,是一个长期的控制约束过程;贸易固然不能从根本上增加碳排放,但确实提高了全球的碳排放水平;对外贸易能够显著促进经济发展;FDI流入会通过溢出效应提升生产效率,带动经济增长;贸易开放会加速提升本国技术水平,提高要素生产效率;贸易自由化能通过加快投入产出结构的优化调整降低碳排放。就不同区域而言,规模效应、技术效应和结构效应效果存在显著差异。为了在保护环境的前提下实现贸易的持续性发展,协调贸易开放与碳排放之间的矛盾冲突,早日实现已经承诺的碳减排目标,促进绿色、低碳经济发展。笔者提出强化公众的环保意识,形成低碳生活理念;促进“低碳”技术发展;增强环境规制的建设,完善环境保护监管制度;优化能源消费结构等合理化建议。
[Abstract]:In 2016, the global average temperature rose by 1.3 degrees Celsius from before the industrial revolution, pressing the temperature control target set by the Paris Accords. China was seriously affected by the El Ni 帽 o phenomenon and the climate was obviously abnormal. Since 1978, China's foreign trade has made a breakthrough, while carbon dioxide emissions have increased dramatically, and the contradiction between trade opening and carbon emissions has become increasingly prominent. If the cost of carbon is taken into account, The low cost advantage of China's exports will continue to weaken or even disappear, and the conflict between trade opening and carbon reduction will be further aggravated. The extensive growth pattern in the past has added great resistance to the implementation of China's sustainable development strategy. Under the background of low-carbon economy development, how to deal with the relationship between trade development and low-carbon transformation, how to develop green trade with "low-carbon economy" as the focus, and how to realize the harmonious development of trade and carbon emissions, It is of great importance. China urgently needs to establish a system of low consumption of resources, adopt energy-saving technologies to use resources as little as possible, improve energy efficiency, and speed up the production of low-carbon commodities. Based on the data of 30 provinces and regions in China from 2000 to 2014, this paper estimates the carbon dioxide emissions, and uses the Global Malmquist-Luenberger index to divide the total carbon dioxide emissions into GDP changes per capita and industrial structure changes. Carbon emissions from changes in technology levels; and data models based on extended STIRPAT models, This paper measures and analyzes the carbon emission effect of the opening up of the three major regional trade in China, East, West and East. The author thinks that carbon emission reduction is not realized in a short time, it is a long-term controlling and binding process, and that trade can't fundamentally increase carbon emissions. But it does raise the global level of carbon emissions; foreign trade can significantly promote economic development; FDI inflows will boost production efficiency and economic growth through spillover effects; trade liberalization will accelerate the upgrading of domestic technology. Increase factor production efficiency; trade liberalization can reduce carbon emissions by accelerating optimal adjustment of input-output structure. In order to achieve the sustainable development of trade under the premise of protecting the environment, to coordinate the contradiction between trade opening and carbon emissions, and to realize the promised carbon emission reduction target at an early date, there are significant differences between the technological and structural effects. To promote the development of green and low-carbon economy, the author proposes to strengthen the public's awareness of environmental protection, to form the concept of low-carbon life, to promote the development of "low-carbon" technology, to strengthen the construction of environmental regulation, and to improve the regulatory system of environmental protection. Optimization of energy consumption structure and other rationalization proposals.
【学位授予单位】：西北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：X22;F752

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