出口跟随者获益于出口先行者的效应研究

发布时间：2018-03-07 14:25

本文选题：市场进入次序　切入点：先行企业　出处：《大连理工大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：中国自改革开放、加入世贸组织以来,积极参与国际分工与经济合作,不断扩大对外贸易与对外投资规模,国际贸易发展迅猛。随着贸易大国的地位不断得到提升和巩固,中国已跃居世界第一货物贸易大国。但继金融危机爆发之后,全球经济增长趋缓,加之贸易保护主义持续蔓延,围绕资源、市场、标准和规则的博弈日趋激烈,我国面临的外贸环境日益严峻,出口市场结构失衡问题突出,外贸传统优势逐渐减弱,传统的贸易发展模式难以持续。这必然要求我们要推动对外贸易从规模扩张向提高质量效益转变,从单一、集中化出口市场向全球、多元化市场拓展延伸,促进对外贸易持续稳定增长,培育我国参与国际竞争的新优势。本文首先总结了企业引入新产品倾向的影响因素以及基于企业进入次序的先动优势和后动优势,在此基础上,从新产品进入出口市场的角度入手,研究出口企业的市场进入次序,考察跟随企业是否可以从先行企业中获益,从而总结出开拓出口市场、促进出口市场多元化的政策建议。在实证研究部分,本文选取了中国海关数据库2000-2006年的出口贸易数据及企业数据,构造微观面板数据模型,以新产品进入为切入点,采用微观计量经济方法评估企业性质、规模对企业市场进入次序的影响,论证出口企业中先动者与跟随者之间出口行为的相互影响。在本文最后,针对本文理论及实证研究成果,提出完善中国出口市场结构、发展多元化对外贸易的战略路径与政策建议。通过理论分析与实证研究,本文得出以下五个主要结论：第一,在出口企业中,无论是先行者还是跟随者,私营企业都占据最大的外贸主体地位,外资企业次之,国有企业市场占比最小；第二,跟随企业进入的可能性与先行者的存活时间正相关,先行企业持续出口时间越长,跟随企业进入的可能性就越大；第三,先行者的存活时间与跟随企业数量成反比,跟随企业进入越多,先行企业持续出口的时间越短；第四,小规模企业充当出口先行者的可能性更大,大规模企业会持观望态度等待合适的机会跟随出口；第五,先行者在进入市场时和进入市场后,其出口规模和出口收益都小于跟随者,跟随者从先行企业那里获得了正的外部效应。
[Abstract]:Since China's reform and opening up and its accession to the WTO, China has actively participated in the international division of labor and economic cooperation, continuously expanded the scale of foreign trade and foreign investment, and international trade has developed rapidly. China has leapt to the number one trade in goods in the world. However, following the outbreak of the financial crisis, global economic growth has slowed down, and trade protectionism has continued to spread. The game over resources, markets, standards and rules has become increasingly fierce. The foreign trade environment facing our country is becoming increasingly severe, the structural imbalance of the export market is prominent, and the traditional advantages of foreign trade are gradually weakening. The traditional pattern of trade development is unsustainable. This inevitably requires us to promote the transformation of foreign trade from scale expansion to higher quality and efficiency, from a single, centralized export market to a global and diversified market. To promote the sustained and stable growth of foreign trade and to foster the new advantages of China's participation in international competition, this paper first summarizes the factors that influence the tendency of enterprises to introduce new products, as well as the first-mover advantages and second-mover advantages based on the entry order of enterprises, on the basis of which, From the perspective of the entry of new products into the export market, this paper studies the market entry order of the export enterprises, and examines whether the following enterprises can benefit from the leading enterprises, thus summing up the development of the export market. In the part of empirical research, this paper selects export trade data and enterprise data of China Customs Database from 2000 to 2006, constructs micro panel data model, and takes the entry of new products as the starting point. Using the microeconometric method to evaluate the influence of the nature and scale of the enterprise on the order of market entry, and to demonstrate the interaction between the first mover and the follower in the export enterprise. At the end of this paper, In view of the theoretical and empirical research results of this paper, this paper puts forward the strategic path and policy recommendations for perfecting the structure of China's export market and developing diversified foreign trade. Through theoretical analysis and empirical research, this paper draws the following five main conclusions: first, Among export enterprises, whether they are pioneers or followers, private enterprises occupy the largest position in foreign trade, followed by foreign-funded enterprises, and state-owned enterprises account for the smallest proportion of the market; second, The possibility of following the enterprise to enter is positively related to the survival time of the forerunner. The longer the leading enterprise continues to export, the more likely it will be to follow the enterprise; third, the survival time of the forerunner is inversely proportional to the number of the following enterprises. The more entry followed, the shorter the duration of export; in 4th, small-scale enterprises were more likely to be export pioneers, and large-scale enterprises would wait and see for the right opportunities to follow exports; 5th, When the forerunner enters the market and after entering the market, its export scale and export income are smaller than those of the follower, and the follower obtains the positive external effect from the leading firm.
【学位授予单位】：大连理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F752.62

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