贸易利得：二元扩张边际视野的分析与基于中国的实证

发布时间：2018-03-15 22:20

本文选题：二元扩张边际　切入点：专业化利得　出处：《浙江大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：贸易利得即一国得自对外贸易的收益,这是一国参与国际贸易的原始动力以及国际贸易存在和扩张的基础,因而是国际贸易研究的一个永续的核心问题。理论上来看,贸易利得内涵广泛,随着世界贸易规模不断扩张,形式不断多样化,经济学界对其定义与解读也在不断拓展,各国贸易政策目标也从最初单纯追求贸易数量的扩张,到更加注重贸易质量的提升与对国家深层次经济利益的影响。现实层面来看,中国改革开放30多年尤其是加入WTO十几年以来的经济快速发展和国民收入水平的快速提升,在很大程度上得益于对外贸易的超高速扩张。然而,问题在于,中国究竟从对外贸易中获得了多大的利得?对外贸易的利得主要体现在哪些方面?用怎样的方法可以测度这种利得?本文主旨在于就上述问题进行机理而实证的探讨。本文运用了机理结合实证分析的方法。机理分析上,本文基于新贸易理论产品多样性和规模经济的假设,从贸易二元扩张的视野将贸易利得分解为消费者层面和生产者层面两部分,并分别进行了理论分析；实证研究上,本文利用UNComtrade产品数据库所有中国进口的HS1992六位码商品数据,对贸易扩张不同方式的贸易利得效应分别进行了测算。研究结果显示,消费者利得方面,基于Armington (1969)对商品种类的定义,中国1993-2013年进口商品的种类数不断上升,即商品-国家组合数不断增加,外延扩张趋势明显,造成的价格指数向上偏误1.34%,带来的交换利得占到2013年GDP的0.53%；生产者利得方面,本文通过将出口商品六位码细分数据与中国制造业各行业数据进行匹配回归,得到出口内涵扩张与行业全要素生产率之间的正向关系,出口在内涵边际上扩张1%,全要素生产率则会增长近0.6%。由此分别得到中国进口外延扩张的利得效应与出口内涵扩张分别的利得效应。最后结合全文结论,本文给出了相关政策建议。
[Abstract]:A country gains from trade by foreign trade income, this is the original power for a country to participate in international trade and international trade and expansion, so it is a perpetual issue at the core of the study of international trade. In theory, the connotation of trade gains widely, with the scale of world trade expansion, form diversification and economics circles on its definition and interpretation is also expanding, the goal of trade policy from the initial pursuit of trade expansion, to pay more attention to the trade and the improvement of the quality of the national deep economic interests. The influence of the reality point of view, China 30 years of reform and opening up especially the rapid increase of more than ten years since joining the WTO the rapid development of economy and national income level, ultra high speed expansion is largely due to foreign trade. However, the problem is, what Chinese obtained from foreign trade What are the main gains? What are the main aspects of the gains of foreign trade? How can we measure such gains? The purpose of this paper is to conduct a mechanism and Empirical Discussion on the above problems.
This paper uses the empirical analysis method. According to the theory of mechanism analysis, the new trade theory of product diversity and scale economy based on the assumption that trade from two yuan to expand the view of the gains from trade is divided into two parts of consumer and producer level, and make theoretical analysis; empirical research, this paper use the UNComtrade product database all China imported HS1992 six digit commodity data, trade gains effect on trade expansion in different ways was analyzed.
The results of the study show that the consumer gains, Armington (1969) based on the definition of the types of goods, the number of types of imported goods for 1993-2013 years Chinese rising, namely commodity - state combination number increasing, expansion trend is obvious, caused by the price index upward bias exchange gains brought by 1.34%, accounted for 0.53% of GDP in 2013 this article through profits; producers, by matching the regression of the industry export commodity code six subdivision data and manufacturing Chinese data, obtained the positive relationship between TFP export expansion and connotation of industry, exports in the connotation of marginal expansion of 1%, total factor productivity will increase nearly 0.6%. yielding gains and export expansion effect the connotation of the extension and expansion of the import China respectively. Finally the conclusion gains effect, this paper gives the relevant policy recommendations.

【学位授予单位】：浙江大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F224;F752

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