中国与欧盟贸易成本的变动及其启示

发布时间：2018-04-04 06:39

本文选题：中国与欧盟　切入点：贸易成本　出处：《广东外语外贸大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：贸易成本被传统贸易理论视为外生变量,从没有被纳入贸易理论模型的讨论框架之内。然而国际贸易理论随着经济全球化的深入发展而不断创新,愈发多的学者意识到贸易成本的关键作用。因此与贸易成本相关的研究越发重要,并使其成为国际贸易理论的核心概念。欧盟自2005年东扩后,与中国的贸易量大幅增加,2013年其跃居为中国第一大贸易伙伴国,并始终保持着龙头地位。若能够对中国与欧盟贸易的经济成本进行测度,不仅可以理解中国的国际分工和专业化模式,还可以为中国的日益开放提供直接证据。本文主要借鉴了基于Novy改进的引力模型以及基于Anderson多边一般均衡重构的新模型这两种方法测度了1994-2013年中国与欧盟的双边贸易成本,并做了对比分析。反映出两种测算方法的计算结果有很大的区别:一、Novy改进的引力模型的测算结果是中国与欧盟的贸易成本持续保持着下降趋势,这与大部分学者的研究结果保持一致。而新模型的测算结果是中国与欧盟成员国的贸易成本有波动趋势,甚至一些国家的双边贸易成本是上升的。二、新模型的测算结果反映的是两国贸易总额大不一定贸易成本低,贸易成本只是影响贸易流量的其中一个因素。1997年中国与欧盟27国贸易成本最低的前6国分别是荷兰、芬兰、德国、罗马尼亚、保加利亚、瑞典。而2013年爱沙尼亚晋升首位,其次是丹麦、匈牙利、荷兰、德国、比利时,与各国的贸易总量水平不一致。三、新模型的一个假设条件是市场份额的不对称,这与Novy改进的引力模型的假设条件不一样,本文还利用新模型测度了中国与欧盟其中8国的单边贸易成本,发现中国对欧盟的单边成本与欧盟对中国的单边成本是不对称的,即目前大多数学者采用的测算方法假设双方的市场份额对称与现实不符。此外,本文还测度了行业的贸易成本,测算结果是纺织类贸易成本从0.98锐减到0.31,下降幅度达69%,同时反映了纺织类是我国的出口优势产业,而矿物、木材类产业;化工、塑胶类产业;机械电子类、杂项制品类产业的贸易成本呈现平缓的上升趋势。动物、食品类产业;鞋帽类产业,交通工具产业的贸易成本呈现波动的趋势。本文最后对贸易成本的影响因素进行分析,发现国家开放程度、人均收入差异、信息壁垒、基础设施和是否为统一贸易组织均与贸易成本有显著的负相关关系。最后在理论分析和实证研究的基础上,提出减少中国贸易成本的政策建议。
[Abstract]:Trade cost is regarded as an exogenous variable by traditional trade theory and is never included in the framework of trade theory model.However, with the development of economic globalization, more and more scholars realize the key role of trade cost.Therefore, the research related to trade cost becomes more and more important and becomes the core concept of international trade theory.Since its eastward expansion in 2005, the European Union's trade with China has increased sharply, and in 2013 it became China's largest trading partner and has always maintained a leading position.If we can measure the economic cost of trade between China and EU, we can not only understand China's international division of labor and specialization mode, but also provide direct evidence for China's opening up day by day.This paper mainly draws lessons from the improved gravitation model based on Novy and the new model based on the reconstruction of Anderson multilateral general equilibrium to measure the bilateral trade cost between China and EU from 1994 to 2013 and makes a comparative analysis.The results show that the calculation results of the two methods are very different: the result of Novy's improved gravity model is that the trade cost between China and the European Union keeps decreasing, which is consistent with the research results of most scholars.The result of the new model is that the trade cost between China and EU member countries is fluctuating, and even the bilateral trade cost of some countries is rising.Second, the results of the new model reflect that the total trade volume of the two countries is not necessarily low in terms of trade costs. Trade costs are only one of the factors affecting trade flows. In 1997, the top six countries with the lowest trade costs between China and the 27 European Union countries were the Netherlands and Finland, respectively.Germany, Romania, Bulgaria, Sweden.Estonia rose to the top in 2013, followed by Denmark, Hungary, the Netherlands, Germany and Belgium, which did not match the overall level of trade.Third, one of the hypothetical conditions of the new model is the asymmetry of market share, which is different from that of Novy's improved gravitational model. This paper also uses the new model to measure the unilateral trade costs between China and eight of the EU countries.It is found that the unilateral cost of China to the EU and the unilateral cost of the EU to China are asymmetric, that is to say, the current calculation method adopted by most scholars assumes that the symmetry of the market share of both sides is not in accordance with the reality.In addition, this paper also measures the trade cost of the industry. The result of the calculation is that the trade cost of textile industry has been sharply reduced from 0.98 to 0.31, which has dropped by 69%. At the same time, it reflects that the textile industry is the dominant export industry of our country, while the mineral and timber industries; the chemical industry.Plastic industry, machinery and electronics, miscellaneous products industry trade costs show a gentle upward trend.Animal, food industry, shoes and hats industry, transportation industry trade costs show a fluctuating trend.Finally, the paper analyzes the influencing factors of trade cost, and finds that the degree of national openness, the difference of per capita income, the information barrier, the infrastructure and whether the trade organization is unified have significant negative correlation with the trade cost.Finally, on the basis of theoretical analysis and empirical research, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions to reduce China's trade costs.
【学位授予单位】：广东外语外贸大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F752.7;F755

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