服务贸易影响我国服务业结构升级的实证分析

发布时间：2018-04-04 18:52

本文选题：服务贸易　切入点：服务业结构升级　出处：《山东财经大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：自改革开放尤其是加入WTO以来,随着对服务业重要性认识不断加深,中国服务业得到了快速发展,但是与发达国家相比服务业发展相对落后且服务业内部结构并不是很合理,从而制约了我国经济的可持续发展。在经济全球化的时代背景下,国际因素成为促进一个国家产业结构优化不可或缺的因素之一,特别是发达市场经济国家在服务业上具有比较优势,服务贸易作为跨境服务业,其发展不仅会带动服务业产值的增长,同时还可以通过服务贸易带来的技术外溢、技术转移、人力与资本积累以及改善服务贸易结构促进服务业内部结构的升级。因此,我国应该更加重视服务贸易的发展,以提高服务行业水平,进而优化服务业产业结构,这对加快我国经济结构调整具有重要的战略意义。文章利用1984-2012年中国服务贸易及服务业发展的相关数据,运用协整分析建立服务贸易出口额增长率、收入增长率及服务业产出率三者与服务业结构的回归模型,定量分析服务贸易与服务业结构究竟存在何种关系,并通过Granger因果检验得出,服务贸易与服务业结构升级之间存在因果关系。研究结果表明:服务贸易出口额增长率对服务业结构调整有正向作用,但其作用小于收入增长率,反映了服务贸易对服务业结构升级的作用小于需求拉动服务业结构升级的作用。而服务业产出率不是服务业结构升级的原因,反映了当前服务业产出比例上,传统服务业大于现代服务业,使得服务业产出率对服务业结构升级的影响不明显。除此之外,通过服务贸易影响服务业结构升级机理的分析,发现服务贸易影响服务业结构升级中出现的问题:一是在产出增长率拉动上,传统服务业仍然远高于现代服务业,这使得导致服务业产出增长率对服务业结构升级的影响不明显;二是服务业人力资本积累的增长速度较慢,导致服务贸易人力资本匮乏。并且根据所出现的问题,从继续完善服务贸易管理机制、大力发挥政府作用、提高服务业引资力度、加快服务贸易专业人才的培养、优化服务贸易内部结构等六个方面提升服务贸易发展以促进服务业结构升级。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, especially after China's entry into WTO, with the deepening of the understanding of the importance of the service industry, China's service industry has developed rapidly, but compared with the developed countries, the development of the service industry is relatively backward and the internal structure of the service industry is not very reasonable.Thus restricting the sustainable development of our economy.Under the background of economic globalization, international factors have become one of the indispensable factors to promote the optimization of a country's industrial structure. Especially, the developed market economy countries have comparative advantages in the service industry, and trade in services is regarded as a cross-border service industry.Its development can not only promote the growth of service industry output value, but also promote the upgrading of service internal structure through technology spillover, technology transfer, manpower and capital accumulation and improvement of service trade structure.Therefore, our country should pay more attention to the development of service trade in order to improve the level of service industry, and then optimize the industrial structure of service industry, which has important strategic significance for speeding up the adjustment of economic structure of our country.Based on the data of China's service trade and the development of service industry from 1984 to 2012, the paper establishes the regression model between the growth rate of export value of service trade, the growth rate of income and the output rate of service industry and the structure of service industry by cointegration analysis.Quantitative analysis of the relationship between service trade and service structure, and through the Granger causality test, it is concluded that there is a causal relationship between service trade and service structural upgrading.The results show that the growth rate of export value of trade in services has a positive effect on the adjustment of service industry structure, but its effect is smaller than the growth rate of income.It reflects that the effect of service trade on the upgrading of service industry structure is less than that of demand-driven service industry structure upgrading.The output ratio of the service industry is not the reason of the service industry structure upgrading, which reflects that the traditional service industry is larger than the modern service industry, which makes the service industry output ratio have no obvious influence on the service industry structure upgrading.In addition, through the analysis of the mechanism of service trade influencing the upgrading of service industry structure, it is found that the problems in the service industry structure upgrading are as follows: first, the traditional service industry is still far higher than the modern service industry in terms of output growth rate.As a result, the growth rate of service output has little effect on the upgrading of service industry structure; second, the growth rate of human capital accumulation in service industry is slow, which leads to the shortage of human capital in service trade.And according to the problems, we should continue to improve the management mechanism of service trade, give full play to the role of the government, enhance the intensity of attracting investment in the service industry, and speed up the training of professionals in service trade.Optimize the internal structure of service trade and promote the development of service trade in order to promote the upgrading of service structure.
【学位授予单位】：山东财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F752.68

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