人民币汇率波动与中美货物贸易的关系研究

发布时间：2018-04-13 05:13

本文选题：人民币汇率 + 中美货物贸易　；参考：《哈尔滨工业大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着中美货物贸易逆差的不断增大、国际市场的萧条以及贸易保护主义的发展,中美货物贸易在总量迅速增长的同时,也面临着贸易结构不平衡以及逆差额不断增大等问题。多国认为人民币汇率是引发中美货物贸易问题的导火索,由此引发争论不断。人民币是否会对中美货物贸易产生影响且其作用程度是个值得关注的问题,因此本文对此进行深入的研究。人民币汇率波动的影响涉及多方面,多种因素相互作用同时对贸易产生影响。综合考虑相关理论及研究,本文从局部均衡的角度出发,选取了人民币汇率水平、人民币汇率波动率、贸易对方工业增加值以及汇率改革四个变量作为自变量,建立ARDL模型以及相应的ECM模型,并从贸易总额以及分产业贸易额的水平研究人民币水平和垂直波动对中美货物贸易的影响。研究发现,贸易伙伴经济增长可以很大程度的促进中美货物贸易总额以及分产业贸易额的发展。人民币升值可以在长期内显著地抑制中美货物贸易出口,且其抑制效应同样作用于短期及滞后期;对进口在长期内具有较小的促进作用而在短期及滞后期内影响为负;从分产业看,人民币升值更倾向于对初级产品以及初级加工产业具有显著的抑制作用,而对高附加值的消极影响较小,可以很好地推动改善中美货物贸易的结构。人民币垂直波动在整体上对中美货物贸易的作用效果不显著,但是从分产业来看,在短期及其滞后期内波动率增大可以对低端制造产业产生抑制效应。汇率改革可以非常小程度地促进中美货物贸易总量差额的增大;从分产业看,其在长期中倾向于加剧中美间初级产品贸易的不平衡,而在短期内倾向于改善中美间初级加工产品的不平衡状况。基于以上分析结果可以发现,人民币水平和垂直波动均可以对中美货物贸易结构有所改善,虽然汇改会小幅度的加剧两国间的贸易差额,但不会导致其如此快速度的增长,要根本的解决问题还需从产生中美货物贸易大量差额的真正原因入手。
[Abstract]:With the unceasing increase of Sino-American trade deficit in goods, the depression of international market and the development of trade protectionism, Sino-US goods trade is facing the problems of unbalanced trade structure and increasing reverse balance while the total amount of goods trade is increasing rapidly.Many countries see the yuan as a trigger for trade in goods between China and the United States, sparking controversy.Whether or not the RMB will have an impact on Sino-US trade in goods and the extent of its effect is a matter of concern, so this paper makes an in-depth study of this issue.The impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuation involves many aspects, and the interaction of many factors has an impact on trade.Considering the relevant theory and research, this paper selects the RMB exchange rate level, the RMB exchange rate volatility, the industrial added value of the other side of the trade and the exchange rate reform as independent variables from the angle of partial equilibrium.The ARDL model and the corresponding ECM model are established, and the effects of RMB horizontal and vertical fluctuations on Sino-US goods trade are studied from the level of total trade volume and sub-industry trade volume.It is found that the economic growth of trading partners can greatly promote the development of Sino-American total trade in goods and the volume of trade in different industries.RMB appreciation can significantly restrain Sino-American goods trade export in the long term, and its inhibitory effect is similar to that of short-term and lag period, and it has a small promoting effect on imports in the long term, but negative effect in short and late period of time, while in the long term, RMB revaluation can significantly inhibit the export of goods between China and the United States.From the point of view of industry, the appreciation of RMB tends to restrain the primary products and the primary processing industry, but has little negative effect on the high value-added, which can promote the improvement of the structure of Sino-US trade in goods.The vertical fluctuation of RMB has little effect on Sino-US goods trade, but the increase of volatility in the short term and lag period can restrain the low end manufacturing industry.Exchange rate reform can to a very small extent contribute to the increase of the total trade gap in goods between China and the United States; in the long run, it tends to aggravate the imbalance in the trade in primary commodities between China and the United States.In the short term, there is a tendency to improve the imbalance of primary processed products between China and the United States.Based on the above analysis results, it can be found that both the horizontal and vertical fluctuations of the RMB can improve the structure of Sino-US trade in goods. Although the Exchange Reform Commission will increase the trade balance between the two countries by a small margin, it will not lead to such a rapid growth.In order to solve the problem, we must start with the real cause of the large difference in goods trade between China and the United States.
【学位授予单位】：哈尔滨工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F752.7;F757.12;F832.6

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