苏州社会消费品零售总额简析

发布时间：2018-04-14 12:01

本文选题：社会消费品零售总额 + 聚类　；参考：《苏州大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着时代的不断发展与进步,人们的消费需求不断增长,社会消费品零售总额不断发展,随着‘十一五’期间政府对内需、消费的一系列调整,使得消费需求成为我国经济发展的一大要素,而社会消费品零售总额很好地反映了这一要素的特征。现今,对市场经济的波动幅度及时了解、及时反应成为了各大国家经济工作的一大重点,而对国民消费需求的了解恰好可以利用社会消费品零售总额很好地反映出来。而且,从‘十一五’到近年来,国内市场上消费需求不足的现象一直存在,又因为国际形势的复杂,使得国家处于缺少外需和内需之中。因此利用社会消费品零售总额进行预测对国家解决内需问题有着及其大的积极影响。本文首先对部分往年的社会消费品零售总额进行聚类,分析出过往消费需求经历过几大变动。然后重点论述了社会消费品零售总额利用时间序列分析方法进行建模以及预测的相关事宜,其中包括对ARMA模型、ARIMA模型的简单介绍。而后利用ARIMA(p,d,q)*(P,D,Q)^s模型对社会消费品零售总额的预测,最终利用时间序列分析方法成功建立模型,确定了相对最优模型之后,首先对原始数据进行拟合,当发现拟合很好之后,则利用2013年的真实数据与使用模型预测的预测值进行对比,确定了模型的有效性。
[Abstract]:With the continuous development and progress of the times, people's consumption demand continues to increase, the total amount of retail sales of consumer goods continues to develop, and with the government's adjustment of domestic demand and consumption during the Eleventh Five-Year Plan period,Consumer demand has become a major factor in the economic development of our country, and the total amount of retail sales of consumer goods reflects the characteristics of this factor.Nowadays, the understanding of the fluctuation range of market economy and the timely response have become a major focus of the economic work of the major countries, and the understanding of the national consumption demand can well reflect the total amount of retail sales of the social consumer goods.Moreover, from the 11th Five-Year Plan to recent years, the phenomenon of insufficient consumer demand in the domestic market has always existed, and because of the complexity of the international situation, the country is in a lack of external demand and domestic demand.Therefore, it has a great positive effect to solve the problem of domestic demand by using the forecast of total retail sales of consumer goods.In this paper, we first cluster the total retail sales of consumer goods in previous years, and find out that consumer demand has experienced several changes in the past.Then the paper focuses on the modeling and prediction of the total retail sales of consumer goods using time series analysis, including a brief introduction to the Arima model of ARMA model.Then we use the Arima model to predict the total retail sales of consumer goods. Finally, we use the time series analysis method to set up the model successfully. After determining the relative optimal model, we first fit the original data, and when we find that the fitting is very good,The validity of the model is determined by comparing the real data of 2013 with the predicted values of the model.
【学位授予单位】：苏州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F727

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