欧元贬值对中部非洲与中国的贸易有何影响

发布时间：2018-04-14 11:41

本文选题：欧债危机 + 中非经济　；参考：《东南大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：本研究旨在从理论上分析欧洲货币联盟的主权债务危机对于“中部非洲国家经济与货币共同体”的经济的影响。全球经济深度放缓的中心在美国。美国主要住房市场的繁荣的衰退引发次级贷款的崩溃,从而影响到金融和房地产行业,并通过银行间流动性的缺乏扩展到欧洲货币联盟内的银行。而且,我们发现金融危机以及后来的欧洲主权危机通过欧元和非洲法郎之间建立的货币联系而扩展到中部非洲国家经济与货币共同体国家。1998年,欧洲委员会同意在欧元、非洲法郎和科摩罗法郎之间建立联系并将欧元和非洲法郎的兑换比例定位1欧元=655非洲法郎。在这个关系中,中非国家最关心的是欧元的波动情况,此波动使得在引言中解释的主权债务很难管理。另外一个关心的事情是为了克服所有国际金融和货币危机而需要的国家货币储备量。因此作为一个反通胀机构,中非经济和货币共同体不应该担心通胀的打击。但是中非经济和货币共同体国家应该会受到低汇款额和外商直接投资的影响,同时接受到的帮助也受到了威胁,包括原材料的出口需求的减少。然而,由于他们(一般的低收入国家,特别是中部非洲国家经济和货币共同体)的出口和经济伙伴的多样化而引起的他们和新兴国家的关系,使得欧洲主权危机扩展对中部非洲国家经济和货币共同体的影响低于预期或者推测。另外,事实上中部非洲国家经济和货币共同体国家通过贸易和世界的联系变得更加紧密。外商直接投资平衡了他们对欧元区的出口,出口量从20年前的50%变成最近的25%。而且,针对中部非洲国家经济与货币共同体地区的主权债务,例如由国际货币基金组织和世界银行联合发起的针对负担最重的穷国,例如喀麦隆、刚果共和国和乍得的债务减免政策,减轻了主权债务对金融行业的影响,官方发展援助的下降和降低移民的转移。在2011年-2012年第一季度这段时间,在全球经济动荡的背景下,中部非洲国家经济与货币共同体地区出现了繁荣的宏观经济,GDP以5%的速度增长。这主要是受到向新兴市场例如中国出口石油和其他原材料的影响。然而,我们可以肯定,尽管主权债务危机的影响有限,但是中部非洲国家经济与货币共同体地区也容易受到全球经济放缓,特别是作为中部非洲国家经济与货币共同体地区经济的主要进口商和投资者的欧元区国家的经济的放缓的间接影响。中部非洲国家经济与货币共同体地区的整体经济没有完全融合：通信网络落后、劳动力转移范围较窄、经济增长由第一产业带动,而且银行只在中央银行的层面上相互联系。中部非洲国家经济与货币共同体国家应该将财政政策和整个宏观经济结构整合在一起,增加第二产业和第三产业的经济,发展区域内部的贸易和通信基础设施。
[Abstract]:The purpose of this study is to theoretically analyze the impact of the sovereign debt crisis of the European Monetary Union on the economy of the Central African Economic and Monetary Community.The center of the deep slowdown in the global economy is in the United States.The boom recession in America's main housing market triggered the collapse of subprime loans, affecting the financial and real estate sectors and extending to banks within the European Monetary Union through a lack of interbank liquidity.Furthermore, we found that the financial crisis and the subsequent European sovereign crisis extended to the countries of the Central African Economic and Monetary Community through the monetary link between the euro and the CFA.To establish a link between the CFA franc and the Comorian franc and to place the conversion ratio of the euro and CFA franc at 1 euro or 655 CFA francs.In this relationship, the central African countries are most concerned about the volatility of the euro, which makes the sovereign debt explained in the introduction difficult to manage.Another concern is the amount of national currency reserves needed to overcome all international financial and currency crises.Therefore, as an anti-inflation agency, the Central African Economic and Monetary Community should not worry about the impact of inflation.But the Central African Economic and Monetary Community should be affected by low remittances and foreign direct investment, as well as a threat to help, including reduced demand for exports of raw materials.However, as a result of their exports and diversification of their economic partners (in general low-income countries, in particular the Central African Economic and Monetary Community), their relationship with emerging countries,The spread of the European sovereign crisis has had less or less than expected impact on the economic and monetary communities of Central African countries.In addition, the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) countries have become more closely connected through trade and the world.Foreign direct investment balanced their exports to the euro zone, from 50% 20 years ago to 25% more recently.Moreover, with regard to the sovereign debt of the Central African Economic and Monetary Community region, such as the joint initiative of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank aimed at the most burdensome poor countries, such as Cameroon,The debt relief policies of the Republic of Congo and Chad have reduced the impact of sovereign debt on the financial sector, reduced official development assistance (ODA) and reduced migration.Between 2011 and the first quarter of 2012, amid the global economic turmoil, the region of the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) experienced a booming macroeconomic growth rate of 5 percent.This is mainly affected by the export of oil and other raw materials to emerging markets such as China.However, we can be sure that, despite the limited impact of the sovereign debt crisis, the region of the Central African Economic and Monetary Community is also vulnerable to a global economic slowdown.In particular, the indirect effects of the slowdown in the economies of the euro zone, which are major importers and investors of the economies of the Central African Economic and Monetary Community region.The economies of the Central African countries and the monetary community as a whole are not fully integrated: the communication network is backward, the scope of labor transfer is narrower, the economic growth is driven by the primary industry, and the banks are only interconnected at the level of the central bank.The countries of the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) should integrate fiscal policies with the overall macroeconomic structure, increase the economy of the secondary and tertiary industries, and develop intra-regional trade and communications infrastructure.
【学位授予单位】：东南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F835;F754

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