中美服务贸易不平衡研究

发布时间：2018-04-20 12:53

本文选题：中美服务贸易 + 贸易不平衡　；参考：《安徽财经大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：21世纪以来,全球经济一体化程度不断地加深,各个国家的政治和经济关系变得更加密切,贸易竞争也更加的激烈。为了适应经济发展趋势,以在激烈的国际竞争中得以生存,各国经济结构都在逐渐向“服务型”转化,服务业在经济中的占比不断增加。同时,服务贸易快速发展,其规模和占世界贸易的比重持续增加。由于我国服务业开始较迟,基础比较薄弱,导致我国服务业整体水平较低,生产的服务产品多是低利润率、缺乏技术含量的资源和劳动密集型产品。这些原因造成我国在与其他国家的服务贸易竞争中处于劣势地位,服务出口小于进口,且进口的服务产品中,新兴服务产品占了很大比重,导致我国服务贸易逆差规模不断扩大,结构不平衡等问题突出。特别是在与美国的服务贸易中,不平衡情况更加严重。美国是我国第一大贸易伙伴国,在我国的对外贸易中起着举足轻重的作用。自从开展双边贸易以来,我国与美国间的贸易规模持续增长。从上世纪90年代开始,中国在对美贸易中一直处于顺差地位,特别是货物贸易顺差不断扩大,但持续增长的服务贸易逆差却没有得到双方足够的重视。中美服务贸易不平衡的问题不仅影响着我国经济的健康发展,也影响着我国与美国的双边政治和经济关系。美国是世界上服务贸易最发达的国家,研究分析其与中国服务贸易不平衡的问题,有助于借鉴其发展经验,提升中国的服务贸易竞争力。本文分析了1999-2014年中国与美国服务贸易进口、出口、进出口总额和进出口差额的发展趋势,并对进出口差额的部门分布进行了具体的研究。在对中美服务贸易不平衡现状进行分析的基础上,本文利用迈克尔·波特的国际竞争优势理论,对造成这一现状的原因进行了进一步的研究,根据“钻石模型”将其概括为四个方面：(1)生产要素：人力资本和技术水平低；(2)需求状况：人口总数大,人均国内生产总值提高；(3)相关及支持产业：服务业发展水平低,产业结构不合理,货物贸易拉动作用小；(4)企业战略、结构和竞争：我国服务企业竞争力低下,美国对进入其市场的我国企业的限制。随后,本文将这四个方面的因素总结为四个可量化的指标进行了实证分析：人力资本水平、人均GDP、服务业经济贡献度和货物贸易。协整检验的结果表明：各变量对模型的影响都很显著,其中人均GDP的提高会促进我国进口,从而加剧中美服务贸易不平衡,而人力资本水平、服务业经济贡献度和货物贸易出口都会促进我国服务出口,从而缓解我国对美国的服务贸易不平衡。文章最后在理论和实证分析的基础上提出改善中美服务贸易不平衡的对策建议,包括大力发展服务业、优化服务贸易结构、完善体制法规、加大人力资本和科技投入、发挥货物贸易带动作用和促进跨国公司发展。
[Abstract]:Since the 21st century, the degree of global economic integration has deepened, the political and economic relations of various countries have become closer, and the trade competition has become more intense. In order to adapt to the trend of economic development and survive in the fierce international competition, the economic structure of all countries is gradually changing to the "service type", and the proportion of service industry in the economy is increasing. At the same time, trade in services has developed rapidly, and its scale and proportion in world trade have continued to increase. Because the service industry of our country starts late and the foundation is weak, the whole level of service industry in our country is low, the service products produced are mostly low profit margin, lack of technical resources and labor-intensive products. These reasons result in our country being in the inferior position in the service trade competition with other countries, the service export is smaller than the import, and the emerging service products account for a large proportion of the imported service products. As a result, the scale of China's service trade deficit continues to expand, structural imbalance and other problems stand out. Especially in services trade with the United States, the imbalance is even more serious. The United States is China's largest trading partner, and plays a pivotal role in China's foreign trade. Since the development of bilateral trade, the scale of trade between China and the United States has continued to grow. Since the 1990s, China's trade surplus with the United States has been in a position of surplus, especially in goods trade, but the growing trade deficit in services has not received enough attention from both sides. The imbalance in service trade between China and the United States not only affects the healthy development of China's economy, but also affects the bilateral political and economic relations between China and the United States. The United States is the most developed country in service trade in the world. To study and analyze the imbalance between service trade and China is helpful to draw lessons from its development experience and enhance the competitiveness of China's service trade. This paper analyzes the development trend of import, export, total import and export volume and import / export difference between China and the United States in service trade from 1999 to 2014, and makes a specific study on the sectoral distribution of import and export difference. Based on the analysis of the imbalance of service trade between China and the United States, this paper makes a further study on the causes of this situation by using Michael Porter's theory of international competitive advantage. According to the Diamond Model, it can be summed up as four aspects: factors of production: low level of human capital and technology and demand: large population, increase in GDP per capita / related industries and support industries: low level of service development, The industrial structure is unreasonable, and the goods trade plays a small role in promoting the enterprise strategy, structure and competition: the competitiveness of our service enterprises is low, and the restriction of the United States on the Chinese enterprises entering its market. Then, this paper summarizes the four factors into four quantifiable indicators: human capital level, GDP per capita, economic contribution of service industry and trade in goods. The results of cointegration test show that: each variable has a significant impact on the model, among which the increase of GDP per capita will promote China's imports, thus exacerbating the imbalance of service trade between China and the United States, and the level of human capital. Both the economic contribution of service industry and the export of goods will promote China's service export, thus alleviating the imbalance of service trade between China and the United States. Finally, on the basis of theoretical and empirical analysis, the paper puts forward countermeasures and suggestions to improve the imbalance of service trade between China and the United States, including vigorously developing the service industry, optimizing the structure of service trade, perfecting the system and regulations, and increasing human capital and scientific and technological input. Play a leading role in goods trade and promote the development of transnational corporations.
【学位授予单位】：安徽财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F752.68;F757.12

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