广东省对外贸易结构与产业结构互动关系研究

发布时间：2018-04-23 00:13

本文选题：对外贸易结构 + 产业结构　；参考：《广东外语外贸大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：近二十年来,广东省的贸易格局和产业发展都取得了巨大的进步。但随着人口红利衰减,国际经济格局深刻调整等一系列内因和外因的作用,广东省经济发展进入新的阶段。广东省产业发展面临结构性问题,生产效率低下,中低端产业产能过剩,高端产业发展不足。在供给侧结构性改革背景下,优化产业结构,使产业结构转型升级,实现经济可持续发展成为改革的主要内容。在结构性改革背景下,广东省对外贸易结构与产业结构的互动关系如何?如何实现广东省对外贸易结构转换与产业结构升级的良性互动发展?这些问题都成为了亟待解决的热点问题。本文从对外贸易商品结构和方式结构两个角度研究了广东省对外贸易结构与产业结构的互动关系,为制定基于产业结构升级的广东省对外贸易政策提供科学依据。首先,运用产业经济学和国际贸易学的相关理论,介绍了对外贸易结构与产业结构的相关概念和内涵,界定了本文的研究范围。然后,通过描述1990-2015年广东省对外贸易结构与产业结构的演进过程及现状,定性分析了广东省对外贸易结构与产业结构的关系。进一步,通过构建反映对外贸易结构和产业结构优化程度的指数,运用结构向量自回归(SVAR)模型定量分析了对广东省对外贸易结构与产业结构的互动关系,并探究广东省对外贸易结构变动对产业结构调整升级的影响路径。最后,根据分析结果提出能够促进广东省产业结构升级的产业政策和贸易政策。研究结果表明,广东省对外贸易结构与产业结构之间存在显著的相互影响关系,进口结构与产业结构之间存在较强的相互促进关系,产业结构调整能够促进出口结构变动,而出口结构变动并不能促进产业结构升级。因此,本文认为广东省应积极发挥进口结构调整与产业结构升级的相互促进作用,加强出口结构调整对产业结构升级的促进作用,制定能够促进产业结构升级的贸易政策,为供给侧结构性改革提供良好的外部环境。
[Abstract]:In the past 20 years, Guangdong Province's trade pattern and industrial development have made great progress. However, with the decline of population dividend, the profound adjustment of international economic pattern and a series of internal and external factors, the economic development of Guangdong Province has entered a new stage. The industrial development of Guangdong Province is faced with structural problems, low production efficiency, overcapacity of middle and low-end industries and insufficient development of high-end industries. Under the background of supply-side structural reform, optimizing the industrial structure, upgrading the industrial structure and realizing the sustainable development of economy become the main contents of the reform. Under the background of structural reform, what is the interactive relationship between Guangdong's foreign trade structure and industrial structure? How to realize the benign and interactive development of foreign trade structure transformation and industrial structure upgrading in Guangdong Province? These problems have become a hot issue to be solved. This paper studies the interaction between the structure of foreign trade and industrial structure of Guangdong Province from the perspective of commodity structure and mode structure of foreign trade, and provides a scientific basis for formulating the foreign trade policy of Guangdong Province based on upgrading of industrial structure. First of all, using the relevant theories of industrial economics and international trade, this paper introduces the related concepts and connotations of foreign trade structure and industrial structure, and defines the scope of this paper. Then, by describing the evolution process and present situation of Guangdong's foreign trade structure and industrial structure from 1990 to 2015, this paper qualitatively analyzes the relationship between Guangdong's foreign trade structure and industrial structure. Furthermore, by constructing an index reflecting the degree of optimization of foreign trade structure and industrial structure, the interaction between foreign trade structure and industrial structure in Guangdong Province is quantitatively analyzed by using the structural vector autoregressive model (SVARM). And explore the foreign trade structure changes in Guangdong Province to adjust and upgrade the industrial structure of the impact of the path. Finally, according to the results of the analysis, the industrial policies and trade policies which can promote the upgrading of industrial structure in Guangdong Province are put forward. The results show that there is a significant interaction between Guangdong's foreign trade structure and industrial structure, a strong mutual promotion relationship between import structure and industrial structure, and the adjustment of industrial structure can promote the change of export structure. The change of export structure can not promote the upgrading of industrial structure. Therefore, this paper holds that Guangdong Province should play an active role in promoting the adjustment of import structure and upgrading of industrial structure, strengthen the role of export structure adjustment in promoting the upgrading of industrial structure, and formulate trade policies that can promote the upgrading of industrial structure. To provide a good external environment for structural reform on the supply side.
【学位授予单位】：广东外语外贸大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F752.8;F127

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