“一带一路”战略下中国与东盟十国深化贸易合作的路径研究

发布时间：2018-04-27 02:35

本文选题：“一带一路” + 国际贸易　；参考：《吉林大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：改革开放后,中国经济获得了长足的发展,当前国民生产总值已然位居世界第二。而中国的经济发展始终得益于中国对外贸易的不断扩张和优化。2008年金融危机发生后,全球消费市场随全球经济环境一道出现了不断恶化的现象。中国作为全球最大贸易国,对外贸易导向型经济面临着严峻的挑战。为了解决现实问题,我国于2013年年末提出了“一带一路”战略,2015年由多个部委联合发表的文件明确了其核心目标,强调实现“贸易畅通”是策略的重中之重。东盟十国是“一带一路”战略中“21世纪海上丝绸之路”的起点,也是未来中美竞争的前沿阵地,从地缘优势和国际战略的角度考量,需要给于这片地区足够的关注。从经贸关系角度考虑,东盟十国在进入21世纪后不断强化与我国的经贸往来,彼此的贸易量出现了快速的提升,2010年中国-东盟自由贸易区成立后,东盟超过日本成为我国第三大贸易伙伴,东盟国家已然成为影响我国对外贸易质与量的重要部分。寻找能与东盟十国深化贸易合作的路径具有深刻的现实意义。自里昂惕夫之谜被提出后,产业内贸易理论不断发展,得到了众多经济学家的不断补充。当前学者也多以具有融合化性质的产业内贸易理论作为理论依据,来解释中国与东盟国家的贸易现象和问题,这说明“一带一路”战略中除“贸易畅通”以外的其余“四通”会对“贸易畅通”产生影响。要素禀赋理论也对中国与东盟十国之间进行产业间贸易提供了很好的解释。本文首先详尽地交待了研究背景和研究意义,来说明研究中国与东盟十国彼此贸易合作路径的必要性。并借助对已有文献的梳理和对相关贸易理论的分析,为下文研究提供足够的铺垫;其次,将从正反两个维度说明中国与东盟十国的贸易合作现状,且不仅要展现出彼此已获得的贸易合作中可喜成果和可以进一步合作的潜力空间,也着重强调彼此关系中存在一些风险会影响到贸易畅通的实现,需要时刻警惕和妥善处理。再次,本文将分析中国与东盟十国的贸易相似性及其变化过程,并给于相应的解释,以便清晰地认识中国同东盟国家进一步扩大贸易额并最终可以实现贸易畅通的潜力空间。再从“一带一路”战略中提出的“五通”思想中选取影响因素,查找2005-2014十年跨度的中国与东盟十国贸易的面板数据,并通过构建合适的引力模型,观察和解释引力模型中各个自变量系数的结果,得到具有解释力的实证依据。最后,根据引力模型反映的结果,结合“一带一路”战略的实际内容,给出中国与东盟十国可以进一步深化贸易合作的思考与建议。
[Abstract]:After reform and opening up, China's economy has achieved considerable development, the current gross national product has ranked second in the world. China's economic development has always benefited from the continuous expansion and optimization of China's foreign trade. After the financial crisis of 2008, the global consumer market along with the global economic environment has been deteriorating. As the largest trading country in the world, China's foreign trade-oriented economy is facing severe challenges. In order to solve the practical problems, China put forward the "Belt and Road" strategy at the end of 2013. The document published jointly by many ministries and departments in 2015 defined its core goal and emphasized that "smooth trade" is the most important strategy. The ten ASEAN countries are the starting point of the "21st Century Maritime Silk Road" in the "Belt and Road" strategy, and also the frontier position of the future competition between China and the United States. Considering the geographical advantages and international strategy, it is necessary to pay enough attention to this region. From the perspective of economic and trade relations, after entering the 21st century, the ten ASEAN countries have continuously strengthened their economic and trade contacts with China, and the volume of their trade has increased rapidly. After the establishment of the China-ASEAN Free Trade area in 2010, ASEAN has surpassed Japan as the third largest trading partner of China, and ASEAN countries have become an important part of the quality and quantity of China's foreign trade. It is of great practical significance to find a way to deepen trade cooperation with the ten ASEAN countries. Since Leontief's riddle was put forward, the theory of intra-industry trade has been continuously developed and supplemented by many economists. At present, scholars mostly use the theory of intra-industry trade with the nature of integration as the theoretical basis to explain the trade phenomena and problems between China and ASEAN countries. This shows that "Belt and Road" strategy in addition to "open trade" the rest of the "four links" will have an impact on "trade flow." The theory of factor endowment also provides a good explanation for the inter-industry trade between China and ASEAN. In this paper, the background and significance of the research are described in detail to illustrate the necessity of studying the trade cooperation path between China and ASEAN. And with the help of the existing literature and the analysis of the relevant trade theory, it provides sufficient groundwork for the following research; secondly, it will explain the current situation of trade cooperation between China and ASEAN from the positive and negative dimensions. And we should not only show the gratifying achievements and potential space of further cooperation, but also emphasize that some risks in our relationship will affect the realization of smooth trade, and we should always be vigilant and deal with them properly. Thirdly, this paper will analyze the trade similarity and its changing process between China and ASEAN countries, and give the corresponding explanation, so as to clearly understand the potential space of further expanding the trade volume between China and ASEAN countries and realizing the smooth trade finally. From the "five links" thought put forward by "Belt and Road" strategy, the paper selects the influencing factors, looks up the panel data of the trade between China and ASEAN ten years from 2005 to 2014, and constructs an appropriate gravity model. By observing and explaining the results of the coefficients of each independent variable in the gravitational model, the empirical basis with explanatory power is obtained. Finally, according to the result of gravity model and the actual content of Belt and Road's strategy, the paper puts forward some thoughts and suggestions that China and 10 ASEAN countries can further deepen their trade cooperation.
【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F752.7

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