中国与“一带一路”主要国家贸易的竞争性与互补性研究

发布时间：2018-04-27 18:31

  本文选题：一带一路 + 比较优势　； 参考：《延边大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：2013年9月和10月,随着习近平主席对中亚和东南亚的访问,"一带一路"战略应运而生,"五通"作为其重点合作领域,是今后各国努力的发展方向,而其中起步最早、不涉及政治和安全等敏感问题的"贸易畅通"或将成为最易实现的领域,但对于涵盖人口过半、涉及国别最多的区域合作平台来说,要实现中国与其间的"贸易畅通"目标并非易事,必须先对其间的竞争性与互补性进行研究,以为中国与"一带一路"国家的贸易发展提供理论依据。基于此,本文采用了定量与定性分析法、比较分析法和归纳法,着重分析了中国与"一带一路"主要国家贸易的竞合关系。开篇之处,笔者一是对选题背景、目的及意义,国内外研究现状,研究方法、内容及结构,本文的创新和不足之处进行了阐述;二是对比较优势理论、要素禀赋理论、国家竞争优势理论、产业内贸易理论等进行了简述。篇中部分为本文的实证分析部分,也是本文的重中之重,在对中国与"一带一路"主要国家的贸易规模、双边贸易地位、商品结构进行研究的基础上,分别从RTA指数、TC指数、ESI指数和贸易互补性指数、产业间和产业内贸易互补指数等视域对中国与这15个国家间贸易的竞争性与互补性进行了测算和解析,分析结果显示:从双边贸易来看,马来西亚、俄罗斯、新加坡、印度、泰国在中国外贸中的地位最高,且贸易额大体上以增长为主,而与欧洲五国的贸易额相对较小,各国的商品结构则以其优势产品为主;受自然要素禀赋和经济发展水平的影响,中国的比较优势和占据竞争力优势的行业主要集中在制成品SITC6+7+8上,而15国则集中在初级产品SITC2+3+4上,总体上中国的优势和竞争力要高于各国;在出口相似度上,中国与东南亚三国(马来西亚、新加坡、泰国)、中欧波兰和捷克、南欧的罗马尼亚和斯洛文尼亚的产品结构十分相似,竞争性较高,而与其余国家则不存在严重的利益冲突;在贸易互补关系上,除印度、新加坡、乌克兰和埃及外,中国与其余11国的互补性均较强,且各国与中国在初级产品贸易上以产业间贸易为主,而在工业制成品上以产业内贸易为主,总体上来说,产业内贸易占据中国与各国贸易的主导模式地位。基于上述结果,在篇末之处本文得出了五点推动中国与"一带一路"国家间贸易的政策性启示,即:有选择、有重点、分阶段地推进与各区各国的贸易发展;趋利避害,提升国内外贸易互补性;借助于构建高标准的自贸区来提高贸易的便利化和自由化;构建以人民币为主导币种的"丝绸之路"货币区,推动贸易和投资便利化、自由化;通过加强对设施联通、资金融通、政策沟通和民心相通的建设来间接地实现"贸易畅通"目标。
[Abstract]:In September and October 2013, with President Belt and Road's visit to Central and Southeast Asia, the "Belt and Road" strategy emerged as the times require. As its key area of cooperation, the "five links" are the development direction of the future efforts of various countries, among which the earliest is the beginning. "Open trade", which does not address sensitive issues such as politics and security, may be the most achievable area, but for regional cooperation platforms that cover more than half of the population and involve the largest number of countries, It is not easy to realize the goal of "smooth trade" between China and China. It is necessary to study the competition and complementarity between China and "Belt and Road" so as to provide a theoretical basis for the development of trade between China and "Belt and Road" countries. Based on this, this paper uses quantitative and qualitative analysis, comparative analysis and induction to analyze the competing relationship between China and Belt and Road. At the beginning, the author expounds the background, purpose and significance of the topic, the present research situation, research methods, content and structure of this paper, the innovation and deficiency of this paper, the theory of comparative advantage, the theory of factor endowment, the theory of comparative advantage, the theory of factor endowment, the theory of comparative advantage and the theory of factor endowment. The theory of national competitive advantage and the theory of intra-industry trade are briefly described. The part of this paper is the empirical analysis part, which is also the most important part of this paper. On the basis of the research on the trade scale, bilateral trade status and commodity structure between China and the main countries of Belt and Road, The competitiveness and complementarities of trade between China and these 15 countries are measured and analyzed from the perspectives of RTA index, trade complementarity index, inter-industry and intra-industry trade complementarity index, etc. The results show that Malaysia, Russia, Singapore, India and Thailand have the highest position in China's foreign trade from the perspective of bilateral trade, and the trade volume is mainly increased, while the trade volume with the five European countries is relatively small. Affected by natural factor endowment and economic development level, China's comparative advantage and the industry with competitive advantage are mainly concentrated on manufactured SITC6 78. On the other hand, the 15 countries are concentrated on the primary product SITC2 34, and China's advantages and competitiveness are generally higher than those of other countries. In terms of export similarity, China and the three Southeast Asian countries (Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Central Europe, Poland and the Czech Republic), Romania and Slovenia in southern Europe have very similar product structures and are highly competitive, while there is no serious conflict of interest with the rest of the world; in terms of trade complementarities, except India, Singapore, Ukraine and Egypt, The complementarity between China and the other 11 countries is relatively strong, and the primary commodity trade between China and China is dominated by inter-industry trade, while the intra-industry trade on manufactured goods is the main trade. In general, Intra-industry trade occupies the dominant mode of trade between China and other countries. Based on the above results, at the end of the paper, the paper draws five policy implications for promoting trade between China and "Belt and Road" countries, that is, selective, focused and phased trade development with all countries in various regions; To promote the complementarity of domestic and foreign trade, to improve trade facilitation and liberalization by establishing a high standard free trade zone, to construct a "Silk Road" currency area with RMB as the dominant currency, to promote trade and investment facilitation, and to liberalize trade; The goal of "unimpeded trade" can be indirectly realized by strengthening the construction of facilities connectivity, financing, policy communication and the mutual understanding of the people.
【学位授予单位】：延边大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F752.7
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本文编号：1811829