政策不确定性对企业出口行为的影响机理与实证分析

发布时间：2018-05-07 16:18

本文选题：政策不确定性 + 企业出口行为　；参考：《浙江工商大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：后金融危机时代以来,我国出口增速在2010年和2011年分别出现31%和22%的短暂“V”型反弹后,自2012年开始,出口增速逐年下滑,2012年至2014年出口增速分别为7.9%、7.8%和6%,且在2015年出现1.8%的负增长,2016年上半年货物贸易出口同期下降2.1%。同时,作为我国主要出口市场的发达经济体经济复苏态势稳固向前,出现需求端的良好态势与我国出口增速放缓并行的现象。我国作为贸易大国,出口贸易一直是推动经济发展的重要引擎之一,出口增速放缓甚至出现负增长将会严重影响我国经济增长,在这样的背景下,我们认为有必要对需求端的良好态势与我国出口增速放缓并行的现象成因进行研究。反观国内,我国政府为应对危机推出了“4万亿人民币经济刺激计划”及相应配套措施、“降准降息”“工业2.5”以及“互联网+”一系列宏观经济政策,这些政策一方面在短期内有效降低了危机对我国经济带来的负面冲击,另一方面也加剧了我国的政策不确定性。事实上,企业对于宏观政策的变化具有较高的敏感度,企业高管已经把国家宏观政策作为公司发展战略的重要考量之一1。较高的不确定性将产生较大的等待期权价值,此时企业会延时投资和雇佣劳动力,利率、工资和价格的下降对减缓经济下滑只能起到有限的短期效应,意味着宏观经济政策干预实体经济只能产生较小1 2013年中欧国际工商学院对中外企业1214位高管的问卷调查结果显示,约46%的本土企业高管将“宏观经济政策”作为其主要顾虑,外企中这一比例达到37%。的影响(Bloom,2009;Carriere-Swallow and Cespedes,2013)。故本文将研究视角从代表需求侧的出口市场转移至代表供给侧的国内宏观经济环境,提出在出口市场需求稳中有升的情况下,国内经济政策不确定性的增加是导致出口增速连年放缓的重要原因之一。本文在异质性企业理论框架下构建理论模型,得出核心理论假设:出口国政策不确定性增加将导致企业出口参与和出口量均下降。之后,本文使用中国工业企业数据库中微观企业样本和地市级市委书记更替数据分别对企业出口状况和政策不确定性进行统计分析。在理论模型和现状分析的基础上,本文使用中国工业企业数据库中2001-2007年非平衡面板数据与中国人民共和国地市级党委书记数据库的匹配数据建立Heckman选择模型实证检验了理论假设,得到与理论假设一致的稳健性结果。本文最后在研究结论的基础上提出相关对策建议,以期为企业出口保持稳健增长提供一定的政策参考依据。
[Abstract]:Since the post-financial crisis era, China's export growth rate in 2010 and 2011 after a brief "V" type rebound of 31% and 22% respectively, since 2012, Export growth slowed year by year, rising by 7.9 percent and 6 percent from 2012 to 2014, with a negative growth of 1.8 percent in 2015. Exports of goods fell 2.1 percent in the same period in the first half of 2016. At the same time, as the main export market of our country, the economic recovery of the developed economies is firmly forward, and the good situation on the demand side is parallel to the slowdown of the export growth rate of our country. As a big trading country, China's export trade has always been one of the important engines to promote economic development. A slowdown in export growth or even a negative growth rate will seriously affect China's economic growth. We think it is necessary to study the causes of the phenomenon that the good situation on the demand side and the slowing export growth rate in China. On the other hand, in order to cope with the crisis, the Chinese government has put forward a "4 trillion yuan economic stimulus plan" and its corresponding supporting measures, "reducing interest rates," "industry 2.5" and "the Internet" a series of macroeconomic policies. These policies, on the one hand, effectively reduce the negative impact of the crisis on China's economy in the short term, on the other hand, aggravate the uncertainty of China's policies. In fact, companies are highly sensitive to changes in macro policy, and executives have made national macro policy one of the most important considerations in the company's development strategy. Higher uncertainty creates greater value of waiting options, when firms delay investing and hiring labor, interest rates, wages, and price declines that have only a limited short-term effect on slowing the economic downturn. This means that macroeconomic policy intervention in the real economy can only produce a smaller one. According to a survey of 1214 senior executives of Chinese and foreign enterprises conducted by CEIBS in 2013, about 46 percent of local executives consider "macroeconomic policy" as their main concern. This proportion of foreign enterprises reached 37. Effect of Bloom 2009 Carriere-Shop and Caval Swallow. Therefore, this paper shifts the research perspective from a demand-side export market to a supply-side domestic macroeconomic environment, and puts forward that if the export market demand is rising steadily, An increase in uncertainty about domestic economic policy is one of the main reasons for the slowdown in export growth over the years. In this paper, a theoretical model is constructed under the framework of heterogeneous firm theory, and the core theoretical hypothesis is obtained: the increase of policy uncertainty in exporting countries will lead to the decrease of both export participation and export volume. After that, this paper makes statistical analysis on the export status and policy uncertainty of enterprises by using the sample of micro enterprises in the database of China's industrial enterprises and the data of the replacement of municipal party committee secretaries at the prefectural and municipal levels. On the basis of theoretical model and current situation analysis, Using the matching data of non-equilibrium panel data from 2001 to 2007 in the database of China's industrial enterprises and the database of party secretaries of the people's Republic of China, this paper establishes a Heckman selection model to empirically test the theoretical hypothesis. A robust result consistent with the theoretical hypothesis is obtained. At the end of this paper, some suggestions are put forward on the basis of the conclusion of the research, in order to provide a certain policy reference for the firm to maintain the steady growth of export.
【学位授予单位】：浙江工商大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F752.62

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