中国—新西兰自由贸易区贸易效应实证评估

发布时间：2018-05-10 10:41

本文选题：中国-新西兰自由贸易协定 + 引力模型　；参考：《东华大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：进入20世纪以来,全球经济一体化主要由全球贸易一体化和全球贸易自由化来推进,主要围绕着WTO多边贸易协议的谈判来进行。然而,进入20世纪90年代,关于WTO框架下的进一步和深层次的贸易自由化谈判几乎处于停滞状态。所以,区域经济一体化代替国际多边贸易形式表现出了强劲发展势头,在全世界范围内兴起了一场区域经济一体化的浪潮。中国的自由贸易区战略就起步于这个时期,从区域经济一体化的发展来讲,中国还属于初级阶段,目前签订的自由贸易协定有13个,其中《中国-新西兰自由贸易协定》是中国与其他国家签署的第一个涵盖货物贸易、服务贸易、投资、知识产权、贸易救济等诸多领域的全面自由贸易协定,也是中国与发达国家签订的第一个自由贸易协定。中新自由贸易协定于2008年10月1日正式生效,距今已有8年多的时间,究竟这份协定的签署对中国经济效应有怎么样的影响正是本文的主要研究内容。首先本文对中新自由贸易区的建立和现状进行了描述性分析。中新自由贸易区建立后,中新间贸易产品的关税逐年下降,极大的促进了中新间的经贸合作,使得中新间贸易增长率有着极大的提升,中国也取代了澳大利亚成为新西兰的第一大贸易伙伴国。随后,构建贸易引力模型,分析结果显示中新签订自由贸易协定对中国进出口贸易总额有促进作用,但并不显著,这主要是因为新西兰只是中国对外贸易中较小的伙伴国。通过进一步构建乳制品贸易模型,以关税反映中新自由贸易协定签订的影响,得到中新签署自由贸易协定对中新间乳制品贸易量的增长有显著的促进作用。继续构建第三个模型并评估。构建出口贸易模型,并根据模型计算出出口预测值,通过考察出口实际值与预测值比值的变化,得到中新建立自由贸易区对中国出口贸易潜力的提升作用并不显著。最后,得到结论和启示。通过本文的分析得出中新自由贸易区建成后,中新间贸易量的增长率远高于中国的前五大贸伙伴国;中新建立自由贸易区对中国对外贸易总额的影响有不显著的促进作用,主要是因为新西兰的对外贸易总额与中国相比太小,但是中新自由贸易协定的签署对中新间特定行业(如乳制品行业)贸易量的影响还是非常显著的。
[Abstract]:Since the 20th century, global economic integration is mainly promoted by global trade integration and global trade liberalization, mainly around the negotiation of WTO multilateral trade agreement. However, in the 1990s, negotiations on further and deeper trade liberalization under the framework of WTO were almost stalled. Therefore, regional economic integration, instead of international multilateral trade, has shown a strong momentum of development, and a wave of regional economic integration has emerged all over the world. China's free trade zone strategy started in this period. In terms of the development of regional economic integration, China is still in the primary stage. At present, there are 13 free trade agreements signed. Among them, the China-New Zealand Free Trade Agreement is the first comprehensive free trade agreement signed between China and other countries covering trade in goods, trade in services, investment, intellectual property rights, trade relief, etc. It is also the first free trade agreement between China and developed countries. It has been more than eight years since the Sino-New Free Trade Agreement came into effect on October 1, 2008. What kind of influence on China's economic effect is the main research content of this paper. First of all, this paper describes the establishment and current situation of Sino-New Free Trade area. Since the establishment of the China-Singapore Free Trade area, the tariffs on Sino-Singapore trade products have dropped year by year, which has greatly promoted the economic and trade cooperation between China and Singapore, which has greatly promoted the growth rate of trade between China and Singapore. China has also overtaken Australia as New Zealand's largest trading partner. Then, the trade gravity model is constructed, and the results show that the new free trade agreement between China and China can promote the total import and export trade of China, but it is not significant. This is mainly because New Zealand is only a small partner in China's foreign trade. By further constructing the dairy trade model and reflecting the influence of the signing of the Sino-New Free Trade Agreement with the tariff, it is concluded that the signing of the Free Trade Agreement between China and New Zealand can significantly promote the growth of the volume of dairy trade between China and New Zealand. Continue to build the third model and evaluate it. The export trade model is constructed, and the export forecast value is calculated according to the model. By examining the change of the ratio between the actual value and the forecast value, it is concluded that the new free trade zone between China and China has no significant effect on the promotion of China's export trade potential. Finally, the conclusion and enlightenment are obtained. Through the analysis of this paper, it is concluded that the growth rate of Sino-Singapore trade volume is much higher than that of China's top five major trading partners after the establishment of the China-New Zealand Free Trade area, and the impact of the establishment of the China-New Zealand Free Trade area on China's total foreign trade volume is not significantly promoted. This is mainly due to the fact that New Zealand's total foreign trade volume is too small compared with China's, but the signing of the Sino-New Zealand Free Trade Agreement (FTA) has a significant impact on the volume of trade between China and New Zealand in specific industries (such as dairy products).
【学位授予单位】：东华大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F752.7;F756.12

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