中国价格贸易条件影响因素的实证研究

发布时间：2018-05-14 03:22

本文选题：贸易条件 + 货币波动性　；参考：《北京外国语大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：中国加入世界贸易组织以来,对外贸易连续多年实现较快发展。作为拉动经济增长的三驾马车之一,对外贸易的发展对我国经济增长的贡献是十分巨大的。但是我国对外贸易整体出现大而不强的局面,长期处于国际分工价值链的低端,加之出口企业的恶性价格竞争等因素,使我国的贸易条件长期处于恶化的趋势。在这样的背景下,研究贸易条件的影响因素有重要的现实意义,有助于政府从宏观政策层面权衡利弊,探索改善我国的贸易条件之道。本文首先对贸易条件问题的前期研究成果进行梳理和总结,把我国的贸易条件现状与世界其他国家相比较,发现我国的价格贸易条件明显低于世界其他国家和地区,且出现显著恶化的趋势,然后对影响我国价格贸易条件的主要因素进行理论分析,在理论分析的基础上采用实证研究的方法,利用世界银行、国际货币基金组织等数据库,搜集整理了41个国家从2003年至2011年的相关数据,通过建立面板数据的计量模型,除了考察关税、劳动生产率、FDI、汇率等传统影响因素以外,创新性得引入货币波动性这一外部环境因素,以期考察货币供给冲击是否会影响一国的贸易条件,以及影响的程度如何。最后,根据实证研究的结果给出相应的政策建议。本文有诸多创新之处。首先,在研究视角方面,首次引入货币波动性这一外部环境因素进行实证研究。拓展了贸易条件问题的研究范围。其次,在数据选取上,以往的研究多采用时间序列数据,本文通过世界银行等国际组织的数据库采用面板数据,样本容量涵盖了世界主要的国家和地区。再次,在研究方法上,无论是检验的方法还是实证分析的思路,都力求全面详细准确,除了常规的异方差、自相关和多重共线的检验,还运用了豪斯曼检验来判断固定效应和随机效应,并且用不同方法进行了五种估计。
[Abstract]:Since China joined WTO, foreign trade has been developing rapidly for many years. As one of the troika to stimulate economic growth, the development of foreign trade contributes greatly to the economic growth of our country. However, the overall situation of China's foreign trade is large and not strong, it is in the low end of the international division of labor value chain for a long time, coupled with the vicious price competition of export enterprises and other factors, the terms of trade of our country have been deteriorating for a long time. Under this background, it is of great practical significance to study the influencing factors of terms of trade, which is helpful for the government to weigh the pros and cons from the macro policy level and to explore the ways to improve the terms of trade of our country. In this paper, the preliminary research results of terms of trade are summarized and compared with other countries in the world. It is found that the terms of trade of our country are obviously lower than those of other countries and regions in the world. Then the main factors affecting the terms of trade of our country are analyzed theoretically. On the basis of the theoretical analysis, the empirical research method is adopted, and the databases such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund are used. Collect and collate the relevant data of 41 countries from 2003 to 2011. Through the establishment of panel data measurement model, besides examining the traditional factors such as tariff, labor productivity, FDI, exchange rate and other traditional factors, It is innovative to introduce the external environmental factor of currency volatility in order to investigate whether the impact of money supply shocks will affect a country's terms of trade and the extent of the impact. Finally, according to the results of empirical research, the corresponding policy recommendations are given. There are many innovations in this paper. Firstly, the external environmental factor of currency volatility is introduced for the first time. Expand the scope of research on terms of trade. Secondly, in the data selection, the previous research mostly uses the time series data, this article uses the panel data through the database of the World Bank and other international organizations, the sample size covers the main countries and regions of the world. Third, in the research methods, both the test method and the idea of empirical analysis, all strive to be comprehensive, detailed and accurate, in addition to the conventional heteroscedasticity, autocorrelation and multiple collinear test, The Hausmann test is also used to judge the fixed effect and random effect, and five kinds of estimations are carried out with different methods.
【学位授予单位】：北京外国语大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F752.6

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