中国企业进口贸易持续时间影响机制研究

发布时间：2018-05-14 04:20

本文选题：中国企业 + 进口持续时间　；参考：《大连理工大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来,国内外涌现出一批学者对进出口贸易持续时间进行研究,利用K-M生存分析方法、cos或离散时间序列cloglog、logit、probit模型对其从产品、企业层面进行研究并提供了相关的指导意义。通常,建立一段进口贸易需要搜寻成本、试探成本和培训成本,如果相关的措施能延长进口贸易持续时间,则可以减少甚至避免这些成本,从而增加企业利润。本文依据中国海关与工业企业数据库中的HS-8位产品与企业层面的匹配数据,运用生存分析方法K-M对2000-2006年中国不同类型的数据进行估计,发现总体上中国企业进口贸易的持续时间比较短暂,平均持续期只有1.8年,同时分不同关税和企业所有制进行了测算,发现低关税产品进口企业与外资企业进口关系持续时间较长。运用离散时间cloglog模型对中国39309个企业的2000-2006年的333288段贸易持续时间段影响因素估计发现,进口关税与企业所有制等进口来源国和企业特征因素均对中国进口贸易持续时间产生了显著影响,并且得出的结果与K-M方法得出的结果一致。同时运用logit及probit模型对该结果进行检验发现其是稳健的。本文的结论对中国企业和政府部门的政策提出有着现实的指导意义。企业方面,本文详细考察了影响进口贸易持续时间的进口来源国特征因素,这使企业在选择进口供应商时可参考本文给出的结论,便于选择一段能持续稳定发展的进口贸易持续时间从而节约成本。同时文中指出中国企业进口贸易持续时间存在门槛效应,企业在增加进口时不应该盲目的增加供应商,应考虑巩固现有的进口贸易关系。政府方面,文中分析了税率和企业所有制等企业特征变量对进口贸易持续时间的影响,笔者建议政府在制定保护性关税保护国内经济的同时应该考虑税率对进口贸易持续时间的影响,在允许的前提下最大限度的降低企业进口贸易的转换成本。同时政府在制定贸易政策过程中,应在贸易自由化导向的前提下,考虑到不同进口所有制企业的差异性,延长企业进口的持续时间,保证中国进口的稳定性。
[Abstract]:In recent years, a group of scholars have emerged at home and abroad to study the duration of import and export trade, and using K-M survival analysis method or discrete time series cloglogitu probit model to study it from the product, enterprise level and provide relevant guidance significance. Usually, establishing a period of import trade requires searching costs, testing costs and training costs, which can be reduced or even avoided if the relevant measures can prolong the duration of import trade, thus increasing the profits of enterprises. Based on the matching data of HS-8 bit product and enterprise level in the database of Chinese customs and industrial enterprises, this paper estimates the different types of data in China from 2000 to 2006 by using the survival analysis method K-M. It was found that the duration of Chinese enterprises' import trade was relatively short in general, with an average duration of only 1.8 years, and was measured by different tariffs and enterprise ownership. It is found that the import relationship between low tariff import enterprises and foreign-funded enterprises lasts a long time. Using discrete time cloglog model, we estimate the influence factors of 333288 period of trade duration of 39309 enterprises in China from 2000 to 2006. Import tariff and enterprise ownership have a significant impact on the duration of China's import trade, and the results are consistent with those obtained by K-M method. At the same time, the logit and probit models are used to test the results and it is found that the results are robust. The conclusion of this paper is of practical significance to the policy of Chinese enterprises and government departments. In the aspect of enterprises, this paper makes a detailed study of the characteristic factors of the country of origin that affect the duration of import trade, which enables enterprises to refer to the conclusions given in this paper when selecting import suppliers. Easy to choose a sustainable and stable development of import trade duration, thus saving costs. At the same time, it is pointed out that there is a threshold effect in the duration of Chinese enterprises' import trade. Enterprises should not blindly increase their suppliers when increasing imports, and should consider consolidating the existing import trade relationship. On the government side, the paper analyzes the influence of the enterprise characteristic variables, such as tax rate and enterprise ownership, on the duration of import trade. The author suggests that the government should consider the influence of tax rate on the duration of import trade while formulating protective tariff to protect domestic economy, and reduce the conversion cost of enterprise import trade to the maximum extent. At the same time, in the process of formulating trade policy, the government should take into account the differences of enterprises with different import ownership under the premise of trade liberalization orientation, prolong the duration of enterprises' import, and ensure the stability of China's imports.
【学位授予单位】：大连理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F752.61

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