基于目的地视角的我国出口贸易二元边际研究

发布时间：2018-05-20 20:10

本文选题：二元边际 + 产品　；参考：《东南大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：改革开放以来,中国与世界贸易的联系更加紧密。由于我国劳动力资源丰富,在很长一段时间中,劳动密集型产品在我国出口中占主导地位。我国自1991年开始实行“市场多元化”战略,希望通过开拓发展中国家出口目的地,降低我国对发达国家出口目的地的依赖程度,并以此降低出口风险。但是近几年来我国出口贸易出现了许多问题,如：针对我国的贸易摩擦不断出现,外部经济环境对我国的出口有着较大影响、巨额贸易顺差导致外汇储备数目不断上升,人民币升值压力不断扩大,劳动力成本上升使得劳动密集型行业出口优势逐渐丧失等。想要解决这些问题,必须研究我国出口增长背后的具体动因是什么。以Melitz(2003)为代表的企业异质性贸易理论模型突破以往贸易理论中企业是同质的假设,解释了新产品种类在国际贸易中的作用,并发现出口新的产品种类是促进企业生产率水平提高的原因(Bernard etl,2006)和获得国际贸易利得的重要来源之一(Bernard etl,2007; Feenstra,2009).许多学者开始从集约边际和扩展边际角度研究一国的出口增长。随着二元边际作用机制的理论基础的发展完善及其在贸易实践中得以证实(Feenstra,2006),二元边际的结构分析成为理解出口模式差异的重要因素(Bernard et al.,2009).在以上研究理论框架的基础之上,本文将从产品与目的地视角展开二维分析,构建二元边际分解法。本文首先对国内外对二元边际的研究文献进行系统性的梳理,然后研究了我国出口贸易的整体情况,研究了我国向不同的贸易区域或贸易集团的出口情况,以及我国制造业中各个行业出口增长的二元边际变化等典型化事实和变动趋势。随后,本文,把目的地多样化引入至我国出口增长的二元边际研究中,由此,本文的扩展边际分解就包括产品和目的地多样化两个角度。本文增加了视角考虑中国的出口增长,使得研究的结果更加全面、稳健。最后,在实证研究方面,本文利用1995-2011年Comtrade数据库对制造业28个行业出口的影响因素进行特征分析,研究相关贸易数据和量化指标,试图给出以上问题的答案。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China and the world trade links more closely. Because our country is rich in labor resources, labor-intensive products play a leading role in China's export for a long time. China has implemented the strategy of "market diversification" since 1991, hoping to reduce its dependence on the export destinations of developed countries by developing the export destinations of developing countries, and thus reduce the export risks. However, in recent years, there have been many problems in China's export trade, such as the appearance of trade frictions, the external economic environment has a great impact on China's exports, and the huge trade surplus has led to an increase in the number of foreign exchange reserves. The rising pressure of RMB appreciation and the rising labor cost make the export advantage of labor-intensive industries gradually lose. In order to solve these problems, we must study the specific motivation behind China's export growth. The heterogeneous trade theory model represented by Melitzn 2003 breaks through the hypothesis that enterprises are homogeneous in previous trade theory, and explains the role of new product types in international trade. It is also found that the export of new products is one of the important sources of increasing the productivity level of enterprises (Bernard etlite 2006) and one of the important sources of the gains from international trade. Many scholars begin to study a country's export growth from the angle of intensive marginal and extended marginal. With the development and perfection of the theoretical basis of the dualistic marginal mechanism and its verification in trade practice, the structural analysis of the dualistic marginal has become an important factor in understanding the differences in export modes. On the basis of the above theoretical framework, this paper will carry out two-dimensional analysis from the perspective of product and destination, and construct a binary marginal decomposition method. Firstly, this paper systematically combs the domestic and foreign literature on dualistic margin, then studies the overall situation of China's export trade, and studies the export situation of our country to different trade regions or trade groups. And the dualistic marginal change of export growth of various industries in China's manufacturing industry, such as typical facts and changing trends. Then, this paper introduces the destination diversification into the dual marginal study of export growth in China. Therefore, the extended marginal decomposition of this paper includes two angles: product and destination diversification. This paper increases the perspective of China's export growth, making the results more comprehensive and robust. Finally, in the empirical research, this paper uses Comtrade database from 1995 to 2011 to analyze the factors affecting the export of 28 industries in manufacturing industry, studies the related trade data and quantitative indicators, and tries to give the answers to the above questions.
【学位授予单位】：东南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F752.62

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