中俄双边货物贸易与生产性服务贸易相关性研究

发布时间：2018-05-21 02:11

本文选题：中俄双边 + 生产性服务贸易　；参考：《湖南大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：中国与俄罗斯是山水相邻的友好邦国,两国之间的经济互补性强,潜在的双边贸易市场巨大。近年来,随着两国战略协作伙伴关系的平稳推进以及睦邻友好条约的签署,双边贸易关系取得了稳步的发展。但是,就目前来看,由于受诸多因素的影响,中俄两国的服务贸易规模并不是很大,作为其中一个部分的并且与货物贸易息息相关的生产性服务贸易发展也刚刚处于起步阶段,可以说中俄两国的服务贸易合作远远落后于政治合作。然后,西方发达国家的生产性服务贸易的规模和结构都有着迅猛的发展。所以两国加强生产性服务贸易领域的合作与协同发展,对促进中俄两国的经济发展,推动东北亚地区经济协作,以适应经济全球化这一发展总趋势,具有重要的现实意义。已有研究一方面没有注重对中俄双边贸易的研究,另一方面很少探究生产性服务贸易与货物贸易的相关关系。本文旨在弥补上述不足,对中俄双边货物贸易与生产性服务贸易的相关关系作进一步研究。另外,2015年,中国经济发展步入新常态,正是以调结构助推转型升级之时,与此同时,全面推进“一带一路”建设也成为我国今年外交战略的“一个重点”,而“一带一路”战略的实施将成为中俄发展全面战略协作伙伴关系的新平台,所以中俄两国在国际市场上处于弱势地位的生产性服务贸易的发展,必然是亟待研究和提升的方向。本文以价值链和规模经济效应及产品生命周期理论作为理论基础,首先分析了生产性服务贸易与货物贸易可能产生相关关系的作用机制,然后运用中俄货物贸易与生产性服务贸易数据进行对现状的分析,原始数据所呈现出的变化趋势可以推断出二者的相关性,进而运用VAR模型、协整检验、Granger因果关系检验、脉冲响应函数等计量经济方法,首先从宏观方面分析了中俄双边货物贸易与生产性服务贸易总额之间的动态影响关系,进而从微观方面探讨了具体生产性服务贸易部门与货物贸易进、出口间,具体货物贸易部门与生产性服务贸易进、出口间的长期均衡关系与动态影响作用,证实了中俄双边货物贸易与生产性服务贸易确实存在着相关关系。文章最后结合理论分析基础和实证检验结果,为促进两国今后的生产性服务贸易与货物贸易协同发展,有针对性地提出了例如把握产品生命周期、充分利用货物贸易与生产性服务贸易协同发展的机制,提升价值链质量、充分发挥规模经济效应、重点优化贸易结构,以及抓住一带一路政策机遇、经贸合作发挥区域优势等方面的政策建议。
[Abstract]:China and Russia are friendly countries with strong economic complementarities and huge potential bilateral trade markets. In recent years, with the smooth advancement of the strategic partnership between the two countries and the signing of the good-neighborly treaty, bilateral trade relations have made steady progress. However, at present, due to the influence of many factors, the scale of trade in services between China and Russia is not very large. The development of productive trade in services, which is a part of it and is closely related to trade in goods, is just in its infancy. It can be said that the service trade cooperation between China and Russia lags far behind the political cooperation. Then, the scale and structure of productive service trade in western developed countries have developed rapidly. Therefore, it is of great practical significance for the two countries to strengthen the cooperation and coordinated development in the field of productive service trade, to promote the economic development of China and Russia, to promote economic cooperation in Northeast Asia and to adapt to the general trend of economic globalization. On the one hand, there is little attention to the bilateral trade between China and Russia, and on the other hand, the relationship between productive services trade and trade in goods is seldom explored. The purpose of this paper is to make up for the above deficiencies and to further study the relationship between Sino-Russian bilateral trade in goods and productive services trade. In addition, in 2015, when China's economic development entered the new normal, it was the time to promote transformation and upgrading by adjusting the structure. At the same time, comprehensively promoting the construction of "Belt and Road" has also become a "key point" of China's diplomatic strategy this year. The implementation of the "Belt and Road" strategy will become a new platform for the development of a comprehensive strategic partnership between China and Russia. Therefore, the development of productive services trade in which China and Russia are in a weak position in the international market, Must be an urgent need to study and promote the direction. Based on the theory of value chain, economies of scale and product life cycle, this paper first analyzes the mechanism of the correlation between the productive services trade and the trade in goods. Then using the Sino-Russian trade in goods and productive services trade data to analyze the current situation, the change trend of the original data can be inferred the correlation between the two, and then use the VAR model, cointegration test Granger causality test. Based on the impulse response function and other econometric methods, this paper first analyzes the dynamic relationship between Sino-Russian bilateral trade in goods and total trade in productive services from the macro point of view. Then it discusses the long-term equilibrium and dynamic effects between the specific productive services trade sector and the import of goods, the export, the specific trade in goods and the import of productive services, and the export from the micro aspect. It is proved that there is a correlation between Sino-Russian bilateral trade in goods and productive trade in services. Finally, based on the theoretical analysis and empirical results, in order to promote the coordinated development between the two countries' trade in productive services and goods in the future, this paper proposes, for example, how to grasp the product life cycle. We should make full use of the mechanism of coordinated development between trade in goods and productive services trade, improve the quality of value chain, give full play to the effect of economies of scale, focus on optimizing the trade structure, and seize the opportunity of Belt and Road policy. Economic and trade cooperation to give play to regional advantages and other aspects of policy recommendations.
【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F752.68

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