人民币实际汇率变动对中国与东盟贸易的影响研究

发布时间：2018-05-21 12:15

本文选题：人民币国际化 + 汇率变动　；参考：《广西师范学院》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：纵观当前世界经济的发展轨迹,全球化依旧是当前世界经济发展的必然趋势,如果自由贸易区的区域合作代表着全球化的开启,那么20世纪90年代便是人民币国际化的开端之年。人民币国际化进程起始于20世纪90年代,起初是由于边境贸易快速发展所导致的“被动”结果。特别是2008年爆发的国际金融危机更加充分的暴露了人民币非国际化的局限性。2009年7月,国内五座城市正式启动了跨境贸易人民币结算业务,这也代表着人民币国际化的序幕正式拉开。近年来,人民币国际化也取得了一些重大进展,毋庸置疑,人民币国际化即是大势所趋,也是中国的必然选择。东盟地区因其优越的地理位置、与中国密切的经济联系,加之中国-东盟贸易区提供的务实合作平台,是中国进行人民币国际化的首选区域,因此,研究如何依托中国-东盟自由贸易区,在中国与东盟的经济合作中不断推进人民币国际化,是一个极具理论和现实意义的课题。随着经济全球化的不断深入,作为经济全球化重要组成部分的金融全球化,特别是人民币汇率问题和贸易问题的争论,已经引起了学术界的广泛关注。本文选择了当前经济的热点问题——人民币汇率变动对我国对外贸易进出口的影响问题作为切入点,参考国内外文献,运用定性与定量分析、规范与实证分析相结合的模式对人民币实际有效汇率变动与中国-东盟的贸易进出口的影响进行研究。由于东盟六国(印度尼西亚、马来西亚、泰国、新加坡、越南和新加坡)的贸易额占东盟国家贸易总额的八成以上,因此,本文主要选取东盟六国为代表进行研究。本文首先分析了我国汇率变动对贸易的影响机制,其次通过对2005-2015年人民币实际有效汇率和人民币兑东盟六国双边汇率的变动情况以及中国-东盟贸易区的贸易现状进行归纳分析,然后将贸易引力模型运用到中国与东盟贸易的定量分析中,利用2005-2015年的数据建立了包括人均GDP,距离等基本变量的贸易引力模型,并在此基础上增加了人民币兑东盟六国的双边加权汇率这一变量,从而得到扩展性的贸易引力模型。其次运用得到的这一模型来评价在人民币国际化背景下人民币汇率变动对东盟各国贸易进出口的影响情况。最后,基于上述分析的结果,本文从汇率政策、贸易政策和产业政策这三个方而对中国-东盟贸易的发展提出了相关政策建议。
[Abstract]:Throughout the current development trajectory of the world economy, globalization is still the inevitable trend of the current world economic development. If the regional cooperation in the free trade area represents the opening of globalization, So the 1990 s was the beginning year of RMB internationalization. The process of RMB internationalization began in the 1990s and was initially a passive result of the rapid development of border trade. In particular, the international financial crisis broke out in 2008 more fully exposed the limitations of RMB non-internationalization. In July 2009, five cities in China officially launched cross-border trade RMB settlement business. This also represents the prelude of RMB internationalization. In recent years, RMB internationalization has also made some significant progress. Undoubtedly, RMB internationalization is not only the trend of the times, but also the inevitable choice of China. Because of its superior geographical location, close economic ties with China, and the practical cooperation platform provided by the China-ASEAN Trade area, ASEAN region is the preferred region for China to internationalize the renminbi. It is of great theoretical and practical significance to study how to promote the internationalization of RMB in the economic cooperation between China and ASEAN on the basis of China-ASEAN Free Trade area. With the deepening of economic globalization, financial globalization as an important part of economic globalization, especially the issue of RMB exchange rate and trade issues, has attracted extensive attention in academic circles. This paper chooses the hot issue of the current economy, the influence of RMB exchange rate change on China's foreign trade import and export, as a starting point, referring to domestic and foreign literature, using qualitative and quantitative analysis. This paper studies the influence of the real effective exchange rate of RMB and the trade import and export between China and ASEAN by the combination of normative and empirical analysis. Since the trade volume of the six ASEAN countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore, Vietnam and Singapore) accounts for more than 80% of the total trade volume of ASEAN countries, this paper mainly selects the six ASEAN countries as the representative of the study. This paper first analyzes the influence mechanism of China's exchange rate changes on trade. Secondly, through the analysis of the real effective exchange rate of RMB from 2005 to 2015 and the change of RMB / ASEAN bilateral exchange rate, as well as the current trade situation of China-ASEAN Trade area, Then the trade gravity model is applied to the quantitative analysis of the trade between China and ASEAN, and the trade gravity model, which includes the basic variables such as per capita GDP, distance and so on, is established by using the data from 2005 to 2015. On this basis, the bilateral weighted exchange rate of RMB against ASEAN six countries is added, and the extended trade gravity model is obtained. Secondly, this model is used to evaluate the impact of RMB exchange rate changes on ASEAN countries' trade imports and exports under the background of RMB internationalization. Finally, based on the results of the above analysis, this paper puts forward some policy recommendations on the development of China-ASEAN trade from three aspects: exchange rate policy, trade policy and industrial policy.
【学位授予单位】：广西师范学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.6;F752

【参考文献】