创新投入与服务出口复杂度的提升

发布时间：2018-05-24 10:46

本文选题：创新投入 + 服务贸易　；参考：《浙江大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着技术革命和世界产业结构的重大调整,全球经济由原本依赖自然资源和制造业的发展模式正逐渐向倚重服务的发展模式过渡。国际服务贸易呈现蓬勃的发展,成为各国贸易竞争的新领域和全球经济发展的新亮点。中国服务贸易虽发展的时间不长但经过快速的成长也逐渐加入了世界市场的竞争中。但我国的服务出口结构还不够均衡,在新兴技术水平较高的服务出口方面还较为薄弱,导致我国服务出口技术水平始终没能得到提升。本文将服务出口复杂度作为衡量一国服务出口技术水平的指标,考察创新投入的资本和人力两个角度对服务出口复杂度的影响。本文首先回顾了创新投入和服务出口复杂度相关文献并进行梳理;随后,对创新投入进行现状分析并加以比较,同时构建服务出口复杂度指标比较分析若干国家的服务出口技术水平;在上述分析之后,本文通过借鉴Aghion和Howitt(1992)模型,理论分析创新投入与服务出口复杂度的直接影响机制,并同时分别从需求和供给端两个方面分析其间接影响机制。在上述分析的基础上,本文利用2000-2014年来自34个国家的面板数据,并利用固定效应模型对所建面板进行回归,实证分析了创新资本投入和创新人力投入对服务出口复杂度的影响并分发达国家和发展中国家面板进行比较,同时实证检验了创新投入的滞后效应和交互效应。研究结果表明,创新资本投入对服务出口复杂度有明显的正效应,其中发达国家投入一定创新资本对服务出口复杂度的影响程度大于发展中国家;创新人力投入对服务出口复杂度有显著的正影响,而其对发展中国家正影响更为强烈;同时,创新资本对服务出口复杂度的影响以短期效应为主,在发达国家效果存续时间更长,并且短期效果更加强烈;创新资本投入和创新人力投入之间存在交互效应,从事创新活动的人力在一个国家人口中所占的比例越高,则增加其创新资本投入所导致服务出口复杂度上升的越快。
[Abstract]:With the technological revolution and the major adjustment of the world industrial structure, the global economy is gradually transitioning from a development model that relies on natural resources and manufacturing to a service-dependent development model. International trade in services is booming, becoming a new field of trade competition and a new bright spot of global economic development. Although China's trade in services has not developed for a long time, it has gradually joined the competition in the world market after rapid growth. However, the export structure of our country's service export is not balanced, and it is weak in the aspect of service export with higher level of emerging technology, which leads to the technical level of our country's service export being unable to be improved all the time. In this paper, the complexity of service export is taken as an index to measure the technological level of a country's service export, and the influence of the capital and manpower of innovation input on the complexity of service export is investigated. This paper reviews and combs the literature on the complexity of innovation input and service export, and then analyzes and compares the current situation of innovation investment. At the same time, the complexity index of service export is constructed to compare and analyze the technical level of service export in several countries. After the above analysis, this paper analyzes the direct influence mechanism of innovation input and service export complexity by using Aghion and Howitt 1992) model for reference. At the same time, the indirect influence mechanism is analyzed from two aspects of demand and supply. On the basis of the above analysis, the panel data from 34 countries from 2000 to 2014 are used in this paper, and the fixed effect model is used to regress the panel. This paper empirically analyzes the influence of innovation capital input and innovation manpower input on the complexity of service export and compares them into developed and developing countries. At the same time, it tests the lag effect and interaction effect of innovation investment. The results show that the investment of innovation capital has obvious positive effect on the complexity of service export, and the degree of influence of investment of innovation capital on the complexity of service export in developed countries is greater than that in developing countries. Innovation manpower input has a significant positive impact on the complexity of service exports, while it has a stronger impact on developing countries. At the same time, the impact of innovation capital on the complexity of service exports is mainly short-term. In developed countries, the effects are longer and stronger in the short term; there is an interaction between investment in innovative capital and investment in innovative human resources, and the higher the proportion of people engaged in innovative activities in a country's population, The higher the complexity of service export caused by increasing the investment of innovation capital.
【学位授予单位】：浙江大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F746.18

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