贸易增加值视角下中国出口技术复杂度测算及影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-05-27 22:25

本文选题：贸易增加值 + 非竞争型投入产出模型　；参考：《湖南大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：参与垂直专业化分工,积极发展外向型加工贸易,究竟是形成对国外进口核心中间投入品的依赖而导致中国实际产业技术水平的下降,还是因获得技术溢出效应而促进国内产业实现“干中学”而提升产业技术含量?在贸易总量通关口径数据引起加工贸易国出口技术水平畸高的现实背景下,从贸易增加值角度切入,剔除进口中间投入品的技术贡献,还原和分解一国贸易出口净技术复杂度的研究是十分必要的。在贸易增加值统计口径下,利用非竞争型投入产出模型,对我国货物贸易和服务贸易行业国内增加值率进行测算,据此厘清各行业贸易出口的国内贡献与进口中间品的国外技术贡献,对1997-2011年我国贸易出口净技术复杂度进行测算分析和国际比较,并利用实证模型分析我国贸易出口净技术复杂度的影响因素。结果发现:从各行业局部来看,服务贸易行业国内增加值率显著高于工业制成品出口行业,这与工业制成品出口行业大量使用进口中间投入品有关。从一国整体来看,我国贸易出口净技术复杂度指数水平随贸易规模的扩张正逐步攀升,贸易出口技术内涵得到一定程度的优化,但仍远低于世界和发达国家整体平均水平,在与发展中国家的比较上也并不存在优势,中国出口技术复杂度异常性结论在一定程度上是国际贸易分工下的“统计假象”。最后,通过构建跨国面板回归模型和灰色关联度模型发现外商直接投资能显著提升一国货物贸易的出口技术水平,而对服务贸易的出口技术内涵影响不大;货物贸易开放度对提升一国服务贸易出口技术水平有逆向作用。
[Abstract]:Participation in vertical specialization and active development of export-oriented processing trade is the result of the dependence on foreign imports of core intermediate inputs, which leads to a decline in China's actual industrial technological level. Or is it because of the technology spillover effect to promote the domestic industry to achieve "dry middle school" and enhance the industrial technology content? Under the realistic background that the export technology level of processing trade countries is extremely high due to the data of total trade volume clearance, the technical contribution of imported intermediate inputs is excluded from the perspective of added value of trade. It is necessary to study the complexity of reducing and decomposing a country's net export technology. Based on the non-competitive input-output model, this paper calculates the domestic value added rate of China's trade in goods and services. Based on this, the domestic contribution of trade exports of various industries and the foreign technical contribution of imported intermediates are clarified, and the net technological complexity of China's trade exports from 1997 to 2011 is calculated and analyzed and compared internationally. The empirical model is used to analyze the factors influencing the complexity of net technology in China's trade exports. The results show that the domestic value added rate of service trade industry is significantly higher than that of industrial manufactured goods export industry, which is related to the heavy use of imported intermediate inputs. In a country as a whole, the level of net technical complexity index of China's trade exports is gradually rising with the expansion of trade scale, and the technical connotation of trade exports has been optimized to a certain extent, but it is still far below the average level of the world and developed countries as a whole. There is no advantage in comparison with developing countries, and the conclusion of Chinese export technology complexity is, to some extent, "statistical illusion" under the division of labor in international trade. Finally, through the establishment of transnational panel regression model and grey correlation model, it is found that FDI can significantly improve the export technology level of a country's trade in goods, but has little effect on the connotation of export technology of service trade. The openness of goods trade has a reverse effect on improving the technical level of a country's export of services.
【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F752.62

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