中日贸易隐含能驱动因素实证研究

发布时间：2018-05-30 05:22

本文选题：中日贸易 + 隐含能　；参考：《东华大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：自国家实施改革开放以后,中国的经济与贸易发展一直保持高速增长的模式。中国GDP水平的高速增长离不开庞大的能源供给,我国目前处在工业化、城镇化快速布局时期的同时也面临着能源消耗的庞大缺口。按照《BP世界能源统计》资料显示,2016年中国一次性能源的消费总规模为43.6亿吨标准煤,占全球总规模的23%,连续5年成为世界上能量消费最高的国家。巨大的能源资源不单造成能源供需的紧张,高耗能、高排放还会引起一系列的环境矛盾,直接导致一部分国家鼓吹“中国能源威胁论”等说法,让中国承担能源和环保问题的国际舆论。本文通过提出“隐含能”这个概念,揭示一国能源使用和贸易之间的联系。通过计算中日双边贸易中的隐含能规模以及隐含能规模变动的驱动因素分析,能够更加直观、清楚的揭示出中国能源使用及对外贸易的本质,为中国“十三五”计划中的节能降排提供政策建议。本文在此背景下,根据WIOD世界投入产出数据库,编制2002年、2007年和2014年中日双边投入产出表,结合中日各部门的能源消耗数据,并将部门整合为22个,分别测算了中日22个部门的完全能耗强度和双边贸易隐含能总量。实证研究发现:中国和日本各部门能源消耗强度皆表现出不同程度的减少趋势,且中国的能耗强度相较与日本降幅巨大,这表明中日两国的能源使用效率均有一定程度的上升。中日双边贸易隐含能总量呈现“先升高,后降低”的趋势。在中日贸易中,中国一直处在能源净出口国的地位。接着利用SDA结构分解模型,将中日双边贸易隐含能规模变动的驱动因素分成内部技术效应、贸易结构效应和贸易规模效应。实证研究发现:贸易规模的变动对贸易隐含能起到了最重要的拉动作用,相比之下,贸易结构因素对隐含能变化值的贡献率非常小。内部技术效应对贸易隐含能的规模有较强的抑制作用,能源使用效率的上升对贸易隐含能规模产生一定的抑制作用。最终本文根据中日贸易隐含能的测算结果以及驱动因素分析结果提供了合理化的政策建议,给出符合中国目前经济发展趋势的政策意见。
[Abstract]:Since the implementation of reform and opening up, China's economic and trade development has maintained a high-speed growth model. The rapid growth of China's GDP level can not be separated from the huge energy supply. At present, China is in the period of industrialization and urbanization, and is also facing the huge gap of energy consumption at the same time. According to "BP World Energy Statistics", China's total consumption of one-off energy in 2016 is 4.36 billion tons of standard coal, accounting for 23% of the world's total scale, becoming the world's highest energy consumption for five consecutive years. Huge energy resources not only cause tension between energy supply and demand, high energy consumption, and high emissions will also cause a series of environmental contradictions, leading directly to some countries advocating the "China Energy threat Theory" and other statements. Let China bear the energy and environmental issues of international public opinion. In this paper, the concept of "implied energy" is proposed to reveal the relationship between a country's energy use and trade. Through the analysis of the driving factors of the change of implied energy scale and implied energy scale in bilateral trade between China and Japan, the essence of China's energy use and foreign trade can be revealed more intuitively and clearly. To provide policy advice for energy saving and reduction of schedule in China's 13th five-year Plan. In this context, according to the WIOD world input-output database, this paper compiled the bilateral input-output tables of China and Japan in 2002, 2007 and 2014, combined with the energy consumption data of various sectors in China and Japan, and integrated them into 22 sectors. The total energy consumption intensity of 22 sectors and the total implied energy of bilateral trade are calculated. The empirical study shows that the energy consumption intensity of China and Japan shows a decreasing trend to varying degrees, and the energy consumption intensity of China is much lower than that of Japan, which indicates that the energy use efficiency of China and Japan has increased to a certain extent. Bilateral trade between China and Japan shows a trend of "increase first, then decrease". China has been a net exporter of energy in Sino-Japanese trade. Then, by using the SDA structure decomposition model, the drivers of the potential scale change of bilateral trade between China and Japan are divided into the internal technical effect, the trade structure effect and the trade scale effect. The empirical study finds that the change of trade scale plays the most important role in stimulating the implied value of trade, in contrast, the contribution rate of trade structure factor to the change value of implied energy is very small. Internal technological effect has a strong inhibition on the scale of trade implied energy, and the increase of energy use efficiency has a certain inhibitory effect on the scale of trade implied energy. Finally, based on the calculated results of the implied energy of Sino-Japanese trade and the results of the analysis of the driving factors, this paper provides some rational policy suggestions, and gives some policy suggestions which are in line with the current economic development trend of China.
【学位授予单位】：东华大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F752.7;F753.13

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