服务贸易与货物贸易互动发展研究

发布时间：2018-06-06 08:42

本文选题：服务贸易 + 货物贸易　；参考：《宁波大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：服务贸易与货物贸易是国际贸易的两个主要组成要素,发展态势呈现出较强相关性:货物贸易先于服务贸易,其发展引致了服务需求和提高了服务供给能力,而服务贸易的产生和发展在提供支撑、降低成本、提升竞争力等方面促进了货物贸易的可持续发展。把服务贸易与货物贸易结合起来研究和两者在总量上、结构上的互相作用日益成为学者们探讨的热点。研究两者互相促进、互动发展的原因、机制以及路径等问题亟待我们研究和解决。中国服务贸易与货物贸易在规模和增速上都形成了跨越式发展,但两者发展不平衡现象不容忽视,常年顺差的货物贸易和常年逆差的服务贸易之反差也值得我们深思。本文选取“服务贸易与货物贸易互动发展”作为研究主题。结合国际贸易、经济学理论和现代计量工具,主要从理论、实践、实证三视角展开分析。首先,本文从宏观层面初步探讨了服务贸易与货物贸易之间的互动发展问题,对国内外理论成果进行系统梳理和总结,选取微笑曲线理论、生产区段和服务链理论、产品生命周期理论作为支撑,并深入阐述两者互动发展的内在机制。其次,从微观层面比较分析全球与中国的服务贸易和货物贸易发展实践,总结全球发展规律和互动趋势,并通过对比总结出中国服务贸易与货物贸易互动发展差距。再次,用协整分析、VEC和VAR等计量模型实证检验了服务贸易与货物贸易互动发展关系,先将全球总体、美国(发达国家代表)、中国(发展中国家代表)的贸易总量进行实证对比分析,结果显示美国、全球的服务贸易与货物贸易之间存在长期稳定的互动发展关系,而中国存在的互动发展关系不显著;为深入研究中国落后之原因,本文再从中国货物贸易商品结构和服务贸易部门结构两方面进行实证分析,结果显示中国服务贸易对燃料和矿产品、钢铁制品、化学品、机械和运输设备四类货物贸易发展的促进作用较为显著,中国货物贸易对服务贸易中代表高附加值的其它商业服务促进效应逐渐增强。最后,针对前文的理论、实践、实证分析结果,在优化贸易结构、重视发展服务贸易、引入竞争机制、完善立法政策等方面提出对策建议。
[Abstract]:Trade in services and trade in goods are two main elements of international trade, and the development trend shows a strong correlation: trade in goods precedes trade in services, its development leads to demand for services and improves the capacity of service supply. The emergence and development of trade in services promote the sustainable development of trade in goods in the aspects of providing support, reducing costs and enhancing competitiveness. The research on the combination of trade in services and trade in goods and the interaction between them in total amount has become a hot topic for scholars. It is urgent for us to study and solve the problems of mutual promotion, mutual development, mechanism and path between the two. China's trade in services and goods has developed by leaps and bounds on both scale and growth rate, but the imbalance between them can not be ignored, and the contrast between the trade in goods in surplus and the trade in services in deficit all the year round is worth our deep thinking. This paper chooses the interactive development of trade in services and goods as the research topic. Combined with international trade, economic theory and modern econometric tools, this paper mainly analyzes from three perspectives: theory, practice and demonstration. First of all, this paper discusses the interactive development between trade in services and goods at the macro level, systematically combs and summarizes the theoretical achievements at home and abroad, selects the theory of smile curve, the production section and the theory of service chain. Product life-cycle theory as the support, and in-depth elaboration of the internal mechanism of the interaction between the two. Secondly, it compares and analyzes the development practice of global trade in services and goods trade with China at the micro level, sums up the law of global development and the trend of interaction, and sums up the gap between China's trade in services and trade in goods through comparison. Thirdly, the paper empirically tests the relationship between trade in services and trade in goods by using the econometric models such as cointegration analysis, such as VEC and VAR. A comparative analysis of the total volume of trade between the United States (a representative of the developed countries) and China (a representative of a developing country) shows that the United States has a long-term, stable and interactive relationship between trade in services and trade in goods. In order to study the causes of China's backwardness, this paper makes an empirical analysis from the commodity structure of China's goods trade and the structure of service trade sector. The results show that China's trade in services contributes significantly to the development of trade in fuel and mineral products, iron and steel products, chemicals, machinery and transport equipment. The promotion effect of China's goods trade on other commercial services which represent high added value in service trade is gradually strengthened. Finally, in view of the above theory, practice, empirical analysis results, in the optimization of the structure of trade, attach importance to the development of trade in services, the introduction of competition mechanism, improve the legislative policy and other aspects of countermeasures and suggestions.
【学位授予单位】：宁波大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F752.68;F752.6

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