出口贸易与我国能源消费碳排放的关系研究

发布时间：2018-06-08 13:18

本文选题：出口贸易 + 能源消费　；参考：《西安科技大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：2009年,我国出口贸易成为全球第一。出口贸易作为我国经济发展的三驾马车之一,拉动了我国经济的快速增长,然而一定程度上破坏了我们赖以生存的生活环境,如不可再生资源的大量消耗,自然资源无节制的开采,使山川、河流、大气受到严重污染等等。近年来,我国向欧洲、美洲、亚洲等出售大量的商品,但生产过程中的污染却没有随商品“比翼双飞”,而是留在了我国。近年来,环境保护与经济发展之间的矛盾日益激化,尤其是大气污染已成为我国环境污染中最可怕的、最迫切需要解决的问题。全国范围频频出现的雾霾天气不仅对我国居民的身体、心理造成极大的伤害,还抑制植物的光合作用,影响到国家的小麦、大米、蔬菜的产量。由于上述原因,本论文将出口贸易与我国能源消费碳排放的关系研究作为研究主题,出口贸易总额、商品结构、方式和地区对我国的碳排放会产生怎样的影响?我国政府以及出口产业和企业又该采取什么样的对策?这些都是本论文研究的重点。本文采用规范分析与实证分析相结合的方法,运用碳排放这个概念,定量估算了1978-2013年间我国能源消费的碳排放情况,数据显示:我国1978-2013年碳排放呈现持续上升趋势,尤其是2002年之后的几年碳排放增长飞速。接着借助相关性分析、单位根检验、协整分析、格兰杰因果关系检验分析研究碳排放总量与我国出口贸易总额、出口贸易商品结构、出口贸易方式、出口贸易地区之间的长期变化影响。研究结论是:我国的出口贸易与能源消费碳排放之间存在着长期均衡和短期波动的关系,碳排放与出口贸易规模互为格兰杰因果原因;中国的碳排放和中国的初级产品、工业制成品的之间呈单向格兰杰原因,中国的碳排放增加是工业制成品的主要推动力之一,即中国的出口货物主要是建立在消耗大量可再生或者不可再生能源基础上;能源消费碳排放是引起出口贸易方式的单向格兰杰原因;东部地区、中部地区和西部地区的出口贸易总量与我国能源消费碳排放是正相关关系。结果表明中国出口贸易是低附加值粗放型、高碳排放的“非环境友好型”发展模式。
[Abstract]:In 2009, China's export trade became the first in the world. As one of the troika of China's economic development, export trade has stimulated the rapid economic growth of our country. However, to some extent, it has destroyed the living environment on which we rely for survival, such as the massive consumption of non-renewable resources. The unrestrained exploitation of natural resources causes serious pollution of mountains, rivers, atmosphere, and so on. In recent years, China has sold a large number of goods to Europe, America, Asia and so on, but the pollution in the production process did not fly with the goods, but stayed in our country. In recent years, the contradiction between environmental protection and economic development has become increasingly acute, especially air pollution has become the most terrible environmental pollution in China, the most urgent need to solve the problem. The frequent occurrence of smog weather in the whole country not only causes great harm to the body and psychology of the residents of our country, but also inhibits the photosynthesis of plants and affects the output of wheat, rice and vegetables in our country. Because of the above reasons, the relationship between export trade and China's energy consumption carbon emissions as the research theme, the total export trade, commodity structure, ways and regions will affect China's carbon emissions. What countermeasures should our government and export industries and enterprises take? These are the key points of this paper. Using the concept of carbon emissions, this paper quantitatively estimates the carbon emissions of energy consumption in China from 1978 to 2013 by combining normative analysis with empirical analysis. The data show that the carbon emissions in China from 1978 to 2013 have continued to increase. In particular, carbon emissions increased rapidly in the years after 2002. Then with the help of correlation analysis, unit root test, cointegration analysis, Granger causality test analysis, the total amount of carbon emissions and China's total export trade, export trade commodity structure, export trade mode, The impact of long-term changes between export trading regions. The conclusions are as follows: there is a long-term equilibrium and short-term fluctuation relationship between China's export trade and energy consumption carbon emissions, carbon emissions and export trade scale are the cause of Granger causality, China's carbon emissions and China's primary products, China's carbon emissions increase is one of the main driving forces of manufactured products, that is, China's exports are mainly based on the consumption of a large number of renewable or non-renewable energy sources. Energy consumption carbon emission is the one-way Granger cause of export trade mode, and the total export trade volume in eastern, central and western regions is positively related to China's energy consumption carbon emissions. The results show that China's export trade is a "non-environmental friendly" development model with low added value and high carbon emissions.
【学位授予单位】：西安科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F752.62

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