山东省进出口商品结构合理性研究

发布时间：2018-06-10 07:49

本文选题：进出口商品结构 + 进出口商品结构合理性　；参考：《燕山大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：进出口商品结构对一个国家或者地区对外贸易的发展以及经济的发展至关重要。本文以山东省进出口商品结构能否促进地区经济增长和能否促进地区产业结构升级为评价山东省进出口商品结构合理性的标准,通过实证分析,判断出山东省进出口商品结构的合理性,并且对优化山东省进出口商品结构提出建议。首先对山东省进出口商品结构的现状,以及近十年进出口商品结构的演进趋势进行了深入的分析。研究表明,山东省出口商品结构有了良好改善,出口的高新技术产品以及机电产品不断增加,进口商品结构还存在不足,进口的先进技术和关键设备不足。其次,运用灰色关联分析法计算出山东省不同进出口商品种类与山东省经济增长之间的关联度,计算结果发现高新技术产品的出口对经济的促进作用超过纺织服装品,高新技术产品以及机电产品的进口对经济增长的促进作用较大。再次,运用协整检验以及格兰杰因果关系检验法分析了初级产品的进出口与山东省第一产业发展的关系以及工业制成品的进出口与第二产业发展的关系,检验结果发现初级产品的出口对于第一产业以及工业制成品的出口对于第二产业发展的促进作用不明显,而且初级产品的进口对于第一产业以及工业制成品的进口对于第二产业的发展具有负面影响。最后根据实证分析结果找出山东省进出口商品结构发展中存在的不合理地方,并且为优化山东省进出口商品结构提出建议。
[Abstract]:The structure of import and export commodities is very important to the development of foreign trade and economy of a country or region. Based on the criteria of whether the structure of import and export commodities in Shandong Province can promote regional economic growth and promote the upgrading of regional industrial structure, this paper makes an empirical analysis on the rationality of the structure of import and export commodities in Shandong Province. The rationality of the structure of import and export commodities in Shandong Province is judged, and some suggestions for optimizing the structure of import and export commodities in Shandong Province are put forward. Firstly, the present situation of the structure of import and export commodities in Shandong Province and the evolution trend of the structure of import and export commodities in recent ten years are analyzed deeply. The research shows that the structure of export commodities of Shandong Province has been improved well, the export of high-tech products and mechanical and electrical products has been increasing, the structure of imported commodities is still insufficient, and the import of advanced technology and key equipment is insufficient. Secondly, the correlation degree between different kinds of import and export commodities in Shandong Province and economic growth of Shandong Province is calculated by using grey correlation analysis. The results show that the export of high-tech products has more promoting effect on the economy than textile and clothing products. The import of high-tech products and mechanical and electrical products has played a greater role in promoting economic growth. Thirdly, by using co-integration test and Granger causality test, this paper analyzes the relationship between primary product import and export and the development of primary industry in Shandong Province, and between the import and export of manufactured goods and the development of secondary industry. The results showed that the export of primary products to the primary industry and the export of manufactured goods to the secondary industry did not promote the development of the secondary industry. Moreover, the import of primary products has a negative impact on the development of the secondary industry. Finally, based on the results of empirical analysis, this paper finds out the unreasonable places in the development of the structure of import and export commodities in Shandong Province, and puts forward some suggestions for optimizing the structure of import and export commodities in Shandong Province.
【学位授予单位】：燕山大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F752.8

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