我国对外承包工程发展前景预测及对策研究

发布时间：2018-06-17 20:14

本文选题：我国对外承包工程 + GM(1　；参考：《石家庄铁道大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：2008年国际金融危机的爆发对我国对外承包工程事业产生了较大冲击,增速相比金融危机爆发前明显放缓。可以说,近年来我国对外承包工程已经进入到了一个新的阶段。在新阶段,如何迅速适应新的发展环境、及时调整海外经营策略是当前摆在我国对外承包工程企业面前亟需解决的一项重要课题。在对我国对外承包工程发展历史及现状深入分析的基础上,本文采用定性与定量分析相结合的研究方法,比选并设计出了GM(1,1)模型与回归分析相结合的预测模型,对2014~2018年我国对外承包工程完成营业额与新签合同额进行合理预测。预测结果表明:未来五年我国对外承包工程发展态势虽逐步回暖,但明显后劲不足,发展形势依然严峻。根据上述预测结果,本文归纳了近年来国际上出现的工程承包新趋势及发展契机,并分别针对亚非传统建筑市场及欧美建筑市场给出了相应的发展对策与建议,可能对我国对外工程承包企业的海外经营决策具有一定的指导作用。
[Abstract]:The outbreak of the international financial crisis in 2008 had a great impact on the undertaking of foreign contracting engineering in China, and the growth rate was obviously slower than that before the outbreak of the financial crisis. It can be said that in recent years, China's foreign contracting project has entered a new stage. In the new stage, how to adapt to the new development environment quickly and adjust the overseas management strategy in time is an important subject that needs to be solved urgently in front of our country's foreign contracting engineering enterprises. On the basis of the deep analysis of the history and present situation of China's foreign contracting projects, this paper adopts the research method of combining qualitative and quantitative analysis, and compares and designs a prediction model combining GMX1) model with regression analysis. The turnover and newly signed contract amount of China's foreign contracting projects from 2014 to 2018 are reasonably forecasted. The forecast results show that although the development situation of China's foreign contracting projects in the next five years is gradually warming up, the situation is still grim. Based on the above prediction results, this paper summarizes the new trends and development opportunities of engineering contracting in recent years, and puts forward the corresponding development countermeasures and suggestions for the traditional construction market in Asia and Africa and the construction market in Europe and the United States, respectively. It may have a certain guiding effect on the overseas management decision of our country's foreign engineering contracting enterprises.
【学位授予单位】：石家庄铁道大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F752.68

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