贵州外贸商品结构优化研究

发布时间：2018-06-21 11:36

本文选题：外贸商品结构 + 投入产出分析　；参考：《贵州财经大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：自我国加入世界贸易组织以来,中国的进出口货物贸易规模呈现出基数级的增长态势,同时中国在贸易质量和效益方面也取得了一定的成绩,对外贸易的长足发展已经成为中国社会主义经济发展的主要推动力。截止到2015年12月,中国对外贸易进出口货物总额已经达到4万亿美元。但我们也应该注意到,毋庸置疑的事实是中国对外贸易的快速发展基于“贸易规模”,贸易质量与效益存在诸多问题,比如出口商品多集中于劳动密集型商品、对外贸易结构不尽优化、对外贸易商品结构不尽合理等问题。现如今,中国要想在新一期的国际分工中占据有利地位,必须尽快的调整对外贸易发展思路,首当其冲要优化布局产业结构,大力发展高精尖产业使其具有竞争优势,进出口商品结构要与产业结构同步匹配使其尽可能的得到调整优化,贵州也不例外。2010~2015年间,贵州虽说在对外贸易总额上呈现逐年上升的趋势,但对外贸易发展质量尤其是外贸商品结构亟待优化。本文从贵州外贸商品结构优化视角出发,重点分析贵州在2010年到2015年间的货物贸易进出口商品结构发展现状和变动轨迹;通过构建投入产出模型,利用2012年贵州投入产出表(42部门的价值型投入产出表),借鉴刘启运(2012)关于改进传统影响力系数和感应度系数的方法思想,测算贵州42个产业部门修正后的影响力系数和感应度系数,根据外贸商品结构合理度指数从而计算贵州42个出口产业部门和进口产业部门的影响力和推动力;再根据实证检验结果分析贵州外贸商品结构合理度的现实状况;最后要根据上文的贵州外贸商品结构现状分析和实证分析提出相关的对策建议,以期更好的引导贵州尽可能的优化自身外贸商品结构,认为贵州政府要给予支柱产业以政策倾斜,具体来说,对于制约贵州整个国民经济发展的瓶颈产业的进口部门应该尽可能的加强扶持力度,最大限度的支持支柱产业部门的出口,同时要积极引进国外前沿科技技术,加快模仿创新和自主创新进程,更好的转变经济发展方式等措施调整和优化升级贵州对外贸易商品结构。通过本文的研究发现,贵州的进口商品结构要明显好于出口商品结构,贵州外贸商品结构调整和优化存在较大的空间,贵州应借助于发展内陆型经济开放区的契机,尽快的调整和优化升级外贸商品结构,以促进贵州整个国民经济的发展。
[Abstract]:Since China's entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO), the scale of China's import and export trade in goods has shown a growth trend at the base level, and China has also made certain achievements in terms of trade quality and efficiency. The rapid development of foreign trade has become the main driving force of China's socialist economic development. By December 2015, China's foreign trade imports and exports had reached US $4 trillion. However, we should also note that there is no doubt that the rapid development of China's foreign trade is based on the "scale of trade", and there are many problems in the quality and efficiency of trade, such as the concentration of export commodities on labor-intensive commodities. Foreign trade structure is not optimized, foreign trade commodity structure is unreasonable and so on. Nowadays, if China wants to occupy a favorable position in the new issue of international division of labor, it must adjust its thinking of foreign trade development as soon as possible, bear the brunt of optimizing the industrial structure of the layout, and vigorously develop sophisticated industries so that it has a competitive advantage. The structure of import and export commodities should be synchronized with the industrial structure so that it can be adjusted and optimized as far as possible. Guizhou is no exception. During the period of 20102015, although the total volume of foreign trade in Guizhou has been increasing year by year, However, the quality of foreign trade development, especially the structure of foreign trade commodities needs to be optimized. From the perspective of optimizing the commodity structure of Guizhou's foreign trade, this paper focuses on the analysis of the current situation and the changing track of the commodity structure of Guizhou's import and export in goods trade from 2010 to 2015, and constructs the input-output model. Using the value input-output table of Guizhou input-output table No. 42 in 2012 to learn from Liu Qiyun's ideas on improving traditional influence coefficient and sensitivity coefficient, According to the rationality index of foreign trade commodity structure, the influence and driving force of 42 export and import industrial departments in Guizhou are calculated according to the revised influence coefficient and sensitivity coefficient of 42 industrial departments in Guizhou. Then according to the empirical test results to analyze the real situation of Guizhou foreign trade commodity structure rationality; finally, according to the above Guizhou foreign trade commodity structure analysis and empirical analysis to put forward the relevant countermeasures and suggestions. In order to better guide Guizhou to optimize its foreign trade commodity structure as much as possible, it is believed that the Guizhou government should give policy preference to the pillar industries, specifically, The import departments of the bottleneck industries that restrict the development of the entire national economy in Guizhou should, as far as possible, strengthen their support, maximize the support for the export of the pillar industries, and at the same time actively introduce foreign cutting-edge science and technology. Speed up the process of imitation innovation and independent innovation, better change the mode of economic development and other measures to adjust and upgrade Guizhou's foreign trade commodity structure. Through the study of this paper, it is found that the structure of Guizhou's import commodities is obviously better than the structure of export commodities, and there is much room for readjustment and optimization of Guizhou's foreign trade commodity structure. Guizhou should resort to the opportunity of developing inland open economic areas. Adjust and optimize the structure of foreign trade commodities as soon as possible to promote the development of the whole national economy of Guizhou.
【学位授予单位】：贵州财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F752.8

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