中国出口增长的二元边际分析

发布时间：2018-06-23 01:54

本文选题：二元边际 + 中国出口增长　；参考：《浙江工商大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：改革开放的一系列政策使得中国与世界的联系越来越紧密,中国在国际贸易发展中正扮演着越来越重要的角色。从大体上看。中国对外贸易有其自身的发展规律。20世纪70年代末至80年代这段时间正是中国改革开放初期。而在20世纪80年代至90年代这段时期,中国除了产业转移政策导向外,还加大了利用外资的力度。因而可以说这段时期在中国对外发展中显得尤为关键。中国在2001年的入世再一次为中国出口贸易的发展增添了动力。随着走出去和引进来战略的实施,通过吸引跨国公司的在国内投资及建立研发基地,中国可以凭借国外的先进技术和管理理念来提高出口产品的规模和种类,进一步推进了中国出口的可持续增长道路。通过改革开放,中国逐渐于世界经济接轨,对外贸易在中国经济中占有越来越重要的地位。但与此同时,我们也看到中国出口在历次金融危机面前所表现出来的不稳定性也非常明显,充分说明中国的出口贸易对外部环境的冲击抵御能力较弱。基于中国出口增长大幅波动和贸易条件持续恶化的事实,本文以异质性企业贸易理论为指导,从贸易的二元边际视角切入,通过分解中国出口总量数据,分析中国出口增长的周期波动及其特征。通过对异质性企业与出口增长理论体系及相关研究脉络梳理和理论分析,揭示贸易的二元边际对出口增长的作用机理。通过对Melitz (2003)模型扩展和采用Tobit技术,实证研究中国出口增长中的二元边际决定因子,揭示中国出口大幅波动的深层原因,据此提炼出中国出口可持续增长的机制和路径,并依理提出后危机时代我国制定出口贸易政策的思路和策略。
[Abstract]:China is playing a more and more important role in the development of international trade because of a series of policies of reform and opening to the outside world. By and large. China's foreign trade has its own law of development. The period from the late 1970s to the 1980s is the beginning of China's reform and opening up. During the period of 1980s and 1990s, China increased the use of foreign capital in addition to industrial transfer policy. Therefore, this period can be said to be particularly critical in China's external development. China's accession to the WTO in 2001 once again added impetus to the development of China's export trade. With the implementation of the strategy of going out and bringing in, by attracting multinational companies to invest in China and establishing research and development bases, China can increase the scale and variety of export products by virtue of advanced foreign technology and management concepts. It further promoted the sustainable growth of China's exports. Through reform and opening up, China is gradually in line with the world economy, foreign trade plays an increasingly important role in China's economy. But at the same time, we also see that the instability of China's exports in the face of previous financial crises is very obvious, which fully shows that the impact of China's export trade on the external environment is weak. Based on the fact that China's export growth fluctuates sharply and the terms of trade continue to deteriorate, this paper, under the guidance of heterogeneous enterprise trade theory, cuts through the dual marginal perspective of trade and decomposes the total export data of China. This paper analyzes the cyclical fluctuation of China's export growth and its characteristics. By combing and analyzing the theoretical system of heterogeneous enterprises and export growth, the paper reveals the mechanism of dualistic marginal trade on export growth. By extending the Melitz (2003) model and adopting Tobit technology, this paper empirically studies the dualistic marginal determinants in China's export growth, reveals the deep reasons for the large fluctuation of China's exports, and extracts the mechanism and path of China's sustainable export growth. And put forward the thinking and strategy of our country's export trade policy in the post-crisis era.
【学位授予单位】：浙江工商大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F752.62;F224

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