技术进步对我国价格贸易条件影响的研究

发布时间：2018-06-24 15:31

本文选题：价格贸易条件 + 技术进步　；参考：《宁波大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：贸易条件是用来衡量在一定时期内一个国家出口相对于进口的盈利能力和贸易利益的指标,反映该国的对外贸易状况。本文通过对我国1981年至2012年总价格贸易条件指数的测算,发现计算期内我国贸易条件指数并非完全恶化,而是呈现出截去两端的正弦波形变化趋势。考虑到实际出口商品的情况十分复杂,本文创新性的按照技术含量高低将我国进出口商品进行分类,分别测算其贸易条件的变化趋势以确定本国的优势产业。此基础上,本文通过选取引起贸易条件变化的典型因素,并对其作用系数进行比较研究,为下一步我国外贸转型、产业结构升级提供理论依据与数据支持。引起贸易条件变化的因素很多,本文将重点放在技术进步对我国价格贸易条件的影响上。理论部分,分别从国家类型、技术进步类别和内生、外生型技术进步出发,对技术进步影响贸易条件的理论发展做了回顾,并对技术进步对一国贸易条件的影响机制进行了分析;实证部分,借助分位数回归与状态空间模型,分别研究了技术进步对不同水平贸易条件的影响效应,以及历年来我国技术进步对价格贸易条件变化的影响,发现技术进步有助于贸易条件的改善,尤其当贸易条件处于较高水平时,效果最为明显,而技术进步的程度对贸易条件的影响效应也表现出一定的动态变化性。此外,本文选取了经济增长、FDI、劳动生产率等指标作为影响贸易条件的辅助因素,使研究更加全面、准确。依据实证结果,本文认为要改善我国贸易条件,实现外贸转型升级,应该加大产品的研发与创新力度,进一步提高产品的核心竞争力,要继续维持比较优势产业出口,逐步调整高科技产业领域,同时应有选择、有计划的引进外资,提高外资利用效率。
[Abstract]:Terms of trade are used to measure the profitability and trade benefits of a country's exports relative to imports for a certain period of time, reflecting the country's foreign trade situation. Based on the calculation of China's total price terms of trade index from 1981 to 2012, it is found that the terms of trade index in China does not deteriorate completely during the calculation period, but shows a sinusoidal wave trend of truncation. Considering the complexity of the actual export commodities, this paper innovatively classifies China's import and export commodities according to the technical content, and calculates the changing trend of its terms of trade to determine its superior industries. On this basis, this paper selects the typical factors that cause the change of the terms of trade, and makes a comparative study of its function coefficient, which provides theoretical basis and data support for the next step of China's foreign trade transformation and industrial structure upgrading. There are many factors that cause the change of terms of trade. This paper focuses on the influence of technological progress on the terms of trade of our country. In the theoretical part, starting from the types of countries, categories of technological progress and endogenous and exogenous technological progress, the author reviews the theoretical development of the influence of technological progress on the terms of trade. In the empirical part, with the help of quantile regression and state space model, the effects of technological progress on different levels of terms of trade are studied. And the influence of China's technological progress on the change of price terms of trade over the years, it is found that technological progress contributes to the improvement of the terms of trade, especially when the terms of trade are at a higher level, the effect is the most obvious. The influence of technological progress on the terms of trade is also dynamic. In addition, this paper selects economic growth FDI, labor productivity and other indicators as auxiliary factors to influence the terms of trade, making the research more comprehensive and accurate. According to the empirical results, in order to improve China's trade conditions and realize the transformation and upgrading of foreign trade, we should increase the R & D and innovation of products, further improve the core competitiveness of products, and continue to maintain the comparative advantage of industrial exports. We should gradually adjust the field of high-tech industry, at the same time, we should choose to introduce foreign capital in a planned way and improve the efficiency of foreign capital utilization.
【学位授予单位】：宁波大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F752.67

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