TPP对我国对外贸易的潜在影响研究

发布时间：2018-06-25 01:25

本文选题：TPP + 区域经济一体化　；参考：《山东师范大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：TPP最初只有新西兰、智利、文莱、新加坡四个初始成员国,自2009年11月美国宣布正式加入TPP谈判后,直接提高了TPP在亚太地区的影响力,也激发了其他国家参与TPP谈判的兴趣。随后,澳大利亚、马来西亚、日本等国相继加入TPP谈判,从而使TPP成员国迅速扩展至12国。2015年10月5日,在美国亚特兰大举行的TPP成员国部长级会议上,美、日、加、新等12国就TPP贸易协定基本达成一致,各国同意逐步进行自由贸易。紧接着,在2016年2月4日的新西兰奥克兰市,12成员国经贸部长正式签署了TPP协定。然而,离签署还不到一年,TPP的命运就因美国新任总统的产生迎来了巨大变化。2017年1月,特朗普上台后签署了总统行政命令宣布退出TPP,这使得TPP将面临更多不确定性。目前情况下,TPP在亚太地区甚有影响,其不确定性因素也会对亚太地区的贸易发展以及我国的对外贸易形成了巨大挑战,而且对我国而言,对外贸易一直是促进我国经济增长的重要引擎之一,而亚太地区在我国的对外经贸网络中又至关重要,因此,加强对TPP未来走向及其可能对中国造成潜在影响的研究具有十分重要的现实意义。本文共分为七部分。第一部分主要阐述本文的研究背景与意义、国内外研究文献综述、研究框架和方法以及本文的创新点。第二部分分析了TPP的相关理论基础和主要特点,并重点对TPP的未来发展前景进行了分析。第三部分析了我国与TPP成员国的贸易现状,主要从我国对外贸易发展现状和我国与TPP成员国的贸易状况进行分析。第四部分着重分析美国在TPP原有框架内对我国对外贸易的潜在影响,主要是从相关产业出口、亚太地区贸易活动空间、对外贸易发展空间、对外贸易水平提升四个方面进行深层次阐述。第五部分析TPP搁浅对于我国外贸的潜在影响。第六部分为我国应对TPP的具体措施,针对TPP未来不同发展前景分别提出了应对措施。第七部分为结论展望,在对全文进行总结的基础上,进行展望。通过研究分析,TPP未来的命运主要面临两种情景。其一,TPP维持原有框架,美国并非真正退出TPP,只是意图将其暂时搁置,TPP未来大有可能重启谈判并达成共识。所以在这种情况下进行影响分析时,仍把美国视为TPP框架内,并进行重点分析。在此基础上,TPP作为一个以美国为首的发达国家联合部分发展中国家基于经济动机、政治动机等多方面考虑的区域经济一体化自贸协定,一旦其未来生效实施,将会对我国对外贸易造成不利影响,对我国农产品、初级产品、化学品以及机械运输等比较优势较小的产业会造成较大冲击,同时使我国自贸区建设和“一带一路”建设面临更多不确定性,而且TPP标准一旦成为国际通用的贸易标准,那么我国将面临更严峻的贸易形势。当然,TPP虽然会对我国对外贸易造成不利影响,但一定程度上对我国对外贸易发展也存在积极影响,在一定程度上有利于提升我国的对外贸易发展水平。对于潜在不利影响,中国的应对措施主要有三方面:第一,中国应不断加强出口产品的竞争力,促进产业结构升级,只有这样才能不断强化对其他国家的比较优势;第二,积极推进自贸区网络建设和实施“一带一路”战略,强化中国与固有自贸区伙伴的经贸合作;第三,着力构建内需拉动型经济增长模式,只有这样才能尽快摆脱我国过度依赖外部市场的发展弊端。其二,若美国完全放弃TPP,使得TPP进入后美国时代,由于TPP“群龙无首”,TPP即将搁浅。在此基础上,TPP搁浅对我国的影响是利大于弊。积极影响是:我国面临的经贸压力将显著减轻,同时有助于我国加快推进RECP和“一带一路”建设。消极影响在于TPP搁浅增加了我国应对非确定性全球贸易形势的难度,对此,中国需要做的就是等待时机,对外密切关注TPP动向,对“内精耕细作”,不断深化国内经济体制改革,在适当的时机可以选择加入TPP谈判。
[Abstract]:TPP was initially only New Zealand, Chile, Brunei, and Singapore's four initial member countries. Since the United States announced the formal accession to the TPP negotiations in November 2009, it directly raised the influence of TPP in the Asia Pacific region and stimulated the interest of other countries to participate in the TPP negotiations. Subsequently, Australia, Malaysia, Japan and other countries joined in the TPP negotiations, thus making TPP a result. The country rapidly expanded to 12 countries in October 5th.2015. At the ministerial meeting of the TPP Member States held in Atlanta, the United States, the United States, Japan, Canada, and the new 12 countries agreed on the TPP trade agreement, and the countries agreed to carry out the free trade. Then, in February 4, 2016, the new West Lan City of New Zealand, the 12 members of the economy and trade ministers signed the TPP Association. However, less than a year after the signing of the TPP, the fate of the new president of the United States came to a great change in the January.2017 year. Trump signed a presidential executive order to announce the withdrawal of TPP, which made TPP face more uncertainty. In the present case, TPP has a great impact on the Asia Pacific region and its uncertainties will also be on the Asia Pacific region. The development of trade in the region and the foreign trade of our country have formed a great challenge, and for our country, foreign trade has been one of the most important engines to promote the economic growth of our country, and the Asia Pacific region is very important in our foreign economic and trade network. Therefore, it is necessary to strengthen the research on the failure of TPP and the potential impact on China. This article is divided into seven parts. The first part mainly expounds the background and significance of the research, the literature review at home and abroad, the framework and methods of research, and the innovation points of this article. The second part analyses the theoretical basis and main characteristics of TPP, and focuses on the future development prospects of TPP. The third part analyses the current trade status of China and TPP member countries, mainly from the current situation of China's foreign trade development and the trade status of our country and TPP member countries. The fourth part focuses on the analysis of the potential impact of the United States on our foreign trade in the original TPP framework, mainly from the export of related industries and the empty trade activities in the Asia Pacific region. Between the space of foreign trade development and the promotion of foreign trade level in four aspects. The fifth part analyses the potential impact of TPP stranding on China's foreign trade. The sixth part is the specific measures to deal with TPP in China, and the seventh part is the conclusion of the future, and the full text is carried out in the full text. On the basis of the summary, the future fate of TPP is mainly faced with two scenarios. First, the TPP maintains the original framework, the United States is not really out of TPP, but the intention is to put it on hold temporarily. The future of TPP is likely to restart the negotiations and reach a consensus. Therefore, the United States is still regarded as TPP in the analysis of the impact of this situation. On this basis, TPP, as a United States led developing country, is a regional economic integration free trade agreement which is based on economic motivation and political motivation in many developing countries. Once its future comes into effect, it will have a negative impact on China's foreign trade and China's agricultural products. The relatively small industries, such as primary products, chemicals and mechanical transportation, will cause greater impact. At the same time, the construction of China's free trade area and the construction of "one area and one road" are facing more uncertainty. Once the standard of TPP becomes the international standard of trade, China will face a more severe trade situation. Of course, TPP will be right China's foreign trade has a negative impact, but to a certain extent it has a positive impact on the development of our foreign trade. To a certain extent, it is beneficial to the promotion of the development level of our foreign trade. For the potential adverse effects, China's countermeasures are mainly three aspects: first, China should constantly strengthen the competitiveness of export products and promote production. Only in this way can the industrial structure be upgraded to strengthen the comparative advantage to other countries; second, actively promote the construction of the free trade area network and implement the "area and one road" strategy, strengthen the economic and trade cooperation between China and the inherent Free Trade Zone partners; third, focus on building the model of domestic demand driven economic growth, only in this way can we get rid of our country as soon as possible. On the other hand, if the United States completely abandoned TPP and made TPP enter the post American era, because of TPP "no one", TPP is going to be stranded. On this basis, the impact of TPP on our country is greater than the disadvantages. The positive impact is that the economic and trade pressure in our country will be significantly reduced, and it will help our country to accelerate the RECP and to accelerate the development of TPP. The negative effect is that the TPP stranding has increased the difficulty of our country's response to the uncertain global trade situation. What China needs to do is to wait for the opportunity, to pay close attention to the trend of TPP, to make the "inner intensive cultivation", to deepen the reform of the domestic economic system, and to choose the TPP negotiations at the appropriate time.
【学位授予单位】：山东师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F744;F752

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