基于引力模型的中国汽车出口影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-06-26 08:28

本文选题：引力模型 + 汽车出口　；参考：《山西财经大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：作为我国重要的国民经济支柱产业,汽车产业对带动我国经济发展正发挥着越来越重要的作用。目前我国汽车产销量均突破2800万量,国内出现产销两旺的市场状况,但我国汽车出口量在2012年突破100万辆高峰后却呈逐年下滑趋势。暴露出我国汽车产业科技水平低、出口市场集中、低价竞争等问题,严重影响我国汽车产业的国际化进程。本文基于对我国汽车出口现状的剖析,结合汽车出口中存在的问题,运用引力模型实证分析了我国汽车出口的影响因素,据此对企业出口规模进行潜力测算,并进一步借鉴发达国家汽车出口的成功经验,对促进我国汽车出口提出相关政策和建议。文中选取进口国人均GDP、贸易依存度等多个因素作为解释变量,截取2006-2015年间美国、韩国、埃及等31个国家的时间面板数据进行引力模型的实证研究,结果显示进口国人均收入与双边贸易政策对我国汽车出口影响最为突出。进口国人均收入水平越高,我国向其出口的汽车数量越多;并且我国对有双边贸易政策的国家汽车出口数量要显著高于没有双边贸易政策的贸易国。出口潜力测算进一步显示出我国在美国、日本、韩国、意大利、俄罗斯等国家“出口不足”,意味着我国汽车企业在这些国家面临着竞争激烈的市场环境,汽车产品的国际竞争力不足。在阿尔及利亚、伊朗、委内瑞拉等发展中国家出现“过度出口”现象,容易引发进口国贸易保护“情绪”,贸易保护壁垒的潜在威胁较大。最后对日本、韩国、德国的相关汽车出口政策及成功经验进行研究,从中总结出适用于我国汽车产业的技术研发、政策扶持等方面的成功经验。本文认为,我国汽车出口应在借鉴国外成功经验的基础上,重点通过制定科学长远的海外发展战略,逐步规范出口秩序和提升出口效率,以及以研发投入和市场需求为导向的技术创新,特别是通过提高质量、服务来提高品牌形象。此外,从国家层面来说,仍需加强财税支持、金融扶持,完善出口公共服务,以此来促进中国汽车的出口。
[Abstract]:As an important pillar industry of national economy, automobile industry is playing a more and more important role in driving the economic development of our country. At present, China's automobile production and sales volume exceeds 28 million, and the domestic market is booming. However, after the peak of 1 million cars in 2012, China's automobile export volume has been declining year by year. The problems such as low level of science and technology, concentrated export market and low price competition in China's automobile industry have seriously affected the internationalization process of China's automobile industry. Based on the analysis of the present situation of China's automobile export and the problems existing in the automobile export, this paper empirically analyzes the influencing factors of our country's automobile export by using the gravity model, and then calculates the potential of the enterprise's export scale. Furthermore, the paper draws lessons from the successful experiences of the developed countries, and puts forward some relevant policies and suggestions to promote the automobile export of our country. This paper selects several factors such as per capita GDP, trade dependence and other factors as explanatory variables, intercepts the time panel data from 31 countries such as the United States, South Korea, Egypt and so on from 2006 to 2015 to carry out an empirical study of gravity model. The results show that the import country's per capita income and bilateral trade policy have the most prominent influence on China's automobile export. The higher the level of per capita income in importing countries, the more cars China exports to them, and the higher the number of automobile exports to countries with bilateral trade policies is higher than that of trading countries without bilateral trade policies. The measurement of export potential further shows that China's "export shortage" in the United States, Japan, South Korea, Italy, Russia and other countries means that Chinese automobile enterprises are facing a competitive market environment in these countries. The international competitiveness of automobile products is insufficient. In Algeria, Iran, Venezuela and other developing countries, the phenomenon of "excessive exports" is likely to trigger the "sentiment" of importing countries' trade protection, and the potential threat of trade protection barriers is greater. Finally, this paper studies the relevant automobile export policies and successful experiences of Japan, South Korea and Germany, and summarizes the successful experiences in technology research and development, policy support and so on, which are suitable for China's automobile industry. This paper holds that China's automobile export should gradually standardize export order and improve export efficiency by formulating a scientific and long-term overseas development strategy on the basis of drawing up successful foreign experiences. And R & D investment and market demand oriented technological innovation, especially through improving quality, service to improve brand image. In addition, at the national level, we still need to strengthen fiscal and tax support, financial support, and improve the export of public services to promote the export of Chinese cars.
【学位授予单位】：山西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F426.471;F752.62

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