吉林省现代服务业与新型城镇化关系研究

发布时间：2018-07-03 13:33

本文选题：新型城镇化 + 现代服务业　；参考：《吉林财经大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：在城镇化发展这一主题上,国内外学者几乎达成了共识,即城镇化是经济社会发展的必然趋势。换个角度来说,研究城镇化这个主题,永不过时。中华上下五千年,曾有着辉煌的历史,但是在19世纪,中国跌进了一个低谷,直到新中国成立。在此一百多年间,以美英为首的欧美国家,通过工业革命,迅速发展,城市化早已开始起步,而新中国成立之初,国家的首要任务是解决人民的温饱,相比之下,城市化进程落后欧美两个世纪之多。改革开放之后,中国发生了翻天覆地的变化,随着工业化脚步的加快,城镇化也开始进入迅速发展,此时,第二产业发挥着决定性作用。进入21世纪之后,第三产业开始迅速发展,随着互联网的普及,以高新技术产业为首的现代服务业发展更如脱缰的野马,一发不可收拾。传统的三次产业结构面临重新洗牌,经济发展的驱动力开始从第二产业向第三产业过渡。“十二五”时期国家提出推进“三化”协调发展,“十八大”又提出实现“四化”同步,随着现代服务业的飞速崛起,有学者提出了“五化”的概念,即在“四化”的基础上增加了“服务化”,这也说明了现代服务业的发展已经成为城镇化建设的主力军。大力推进现代服务业的发展,是加快城镇化发展进程的重要战略举措。吉林省是传统的农业大省,同时也是重工业基地,在建国之初为国家的起步发展做出了不可磨灭的贡献。改革开放后,国家发展重心向东部沿海转移,受政策性因素影响,吉林省发展开始走下坡路,产业结构性矛盾开始慢慢体现。新世纪后,随着吉林省新型城镇化进程的发展,各种弊端积重难返,三次产业结构不合理、传统服务业发展水平低下、人才流失严重等问题制约着吉林省经济发展。随着社会经济的发展,现代服务业的产值与劳动力吸纳能力在逐年稳健增长,与此同时,新型城镇化进程也在不断推进。在吉林省新型城镇化的进程当中,现代服务业的发展起着怎样的作用,成为了当前研究的一个热点,具有良好的现实意义。本文选取2000年-2014年的数据,运用因子分析与层次分析相结合的方法,对吉林省新型城镇化和现代服务业两个系统进行评价,并通过建立VECM模型去揭示吉林省现代服务业与新型城镇化两个系统之间的关系,并依据结论,提出相应的政策建议,旨在促进吉林省现代服务业的发展,加快吉林省新型城镇化的脚步。主要结论有:吉林省现代服务业水平呈逐年增长态势、吉林省新型城镇化水平呈先降后升态势、吉林省现代服务业与新型城镇化存在长期稳定的均衡关系、吉林省现代服务业是新型城镇化的单向格兰杰原因。得到的主要对策建议有:通过空间聚集的方式促进城镇化发展、全面统筹区域间经济协调发展、优化服务业产业结构,提升服务业发展质量。
[Abstract]:On the subject of urbanization development, scholars at home and abroad almost reached a consensus that urbanization is the inevitable trend of economic and social development. In other words, studying the subject of urbanization will never be out of date. China had a glorious history of five thousand years, but in the 19 th century, China fell into a trough until the founding of New China. In the past 100 years or so, the European and American countries, led by the United States and Britain, have developed rapidly through the industrial revolution, and urbanization has already begun to start. At the beginning of the founding of New China, the country's primary task was to solve the problem of food and clothing for its people. The process of urbanization is as much as two centuries behind Europe and the United States. After the reform and opening up, China has undergone earth-shaking changes, with the pace of industrialization accelerated, urbanization began to enter into a rapid development, at this time, the secondary industry plays a decisive role. After entering the 21st century, the tertiary industry began to develop rapidly. With the popularization of the Internet, the development of modern service industry, led by high-tech industries, is more like a runaway Mustang. The traditional tertiary industrial structure is facing a reshuffle, and the driving force of economic development begins to transition from the secondary industry to the tertiary industry. During the 12th Five-Year Plan period, the state proposed to promote the coordinated development of the "three modernizations", and the 18th National Congress proposed to realize the "four modernizations" synchronously. With the rapid rise of the modern service industry, some scholars put forward the concept of "five modernizations". That is, on the basis of "four modernizations" added "service", which also shows that the development of modern service industry has become the main force of urbanization construction. Vigorously promoting the development of modern services is an important strategic measure to speed up the development of urbanization. Jilin Province is a traditional agricultural province and also a heavy industrial base. It made an indelible contribution to the initial development of the country at the beginning of the founding of the people's Republic of China. After the reform and opening up, the center of national development shifted to the eastern coast, affected by policy factors, Jilin Province began to decline in development, industrial structural contradictions began to slowly reflect. After the new century, with the development of the new urbanization process in Jilin Province, the long-term accumulation of various drawbacks is not easy to solve, the third industrial structure is unreasonable, the development level of traditional service industry is low, the brain drain is serious and so on, which restricts the economic development of Jilin Province. With the development of social economy, the output value of modern service industry and the ability of absorbing labor are increasing steadily year by year. At the same time, the process of new urbanization is advancing constantly. In the process of new urbanization in Jilin Province, the development of modern service industry has become a hot spot of current research and has a good practical significance. Based on the data from 2000 to 2014, this paper evaluates the two systems of new urbanization and modern service industry in Jilin Province by using the method of factor analysis and hierarchical analysis. Through the establishment of VECM model to reveal the relationship between the modern service industry and the new urbanization system in Jilin Province, and based on the conclusions, the corresponding policy recommendations are put forward to promote the development of modern service industry in Jilin Province. Speed up the pace of new urbanization in Jilin Province. The main conclusions are as follows: the level of modern service industry in Jilin Province is increasing year by year, the level of new urbanization in Jilin Province is decreasing first and then rising, and there is a long-term and stable equilibrium relationship between modern service industry and new urbanization in Jilin Province. Modern service industry in Jilin Province is the one-way Granger cause of new urbanization. The main countermeasures and suggestions are as follows: promoting the development of urbanization through spatial agglomeration, coordinating the development of inter-regional economy, optimizing the industrial structure of service industry and improving the quality of service industry development.
【学位授予单位】：吉林财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F719;F299.27

【参考文献】