货币供给量与物价关系的理论与实证分析

发布时间：2018-07-06 10:42

本文选题：货币供给量 + 消费者价格指数　；参考：《首都经济贸易大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：一直以来,在经济学界存在一个共识:货币量的变化会造成物价的波动,而物价的波动则也会反作用于货币量。从传统的货币理论(MV=QP)也可以看出,如若设定其他条件(货币流通速度)一定,那货币供给量确实会与物价保持同向变动的关系。但纵观近年来我国经济市场,却出现了与上述理论不符的非常规现象。从1991年至今,我国货币供给量M2呈不断上升的态势。1991年时,M2数量为19349.9万亿,而到了2016年,这个数值增长了80倍,达到1550122.31万亿。但奇怪的是,货币供给量M2的飞速发展并未带来消费者价格指数CPI的同向发展。我国CPI在这26年的平均增速为4.3%。我国的这种反常现象,很值得深入研究。因此本文采用格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应分析、方差分解等方法,分别对长期(1991年-2016年)和短期(2007年-2016年)的广义货币供给量增长率及CPI增长率进行实证检验。发现,在长期,货币供给量M2与CPI依旧保持着显著的相关性。但在短期,货币供给量的增长并不能完全体现在CPI的增长上。并在此基础上,对短期内货币供给量与CPI的关系继续研究,采用VAR模型方法,从脉冲响应函数和方差分解角度分析两者在短期内的动态关系。通过对以上结论的分析指出由于准货币数量的增长、虚拟经济的快速膨胀以及房地产市场的过热,造成了短期内货币供给量与CPI关系的弱化,并对此提出了相应的政策建议。
[Abstract]:There is a consensus in the field of economics all the time: the change of monetary quantity will cause the fluctuation of price, and the fluctuation of price will counteract the quantity of money. It can also be seen from the traditional monetary theory (MV / QP) that if other conditions (velocity of money circulation) are set, the quantity of money supply will indeed keep the same direction of change with the price. However, in recent years, there is an unconventional phenomenon which is inconsistent with the above theory in China's economic market. Since 1991, China's money supply M2 has been on the rise. In 1991, the amount of M2 was 19349.9 trillion, but in 2016, it increased eighty-fold to 1550122.31 trillion. Oddly enough, the rapid growth of M2 did not lead to the same trend of consumer price inflation. China's CPI in the 26-year average growth rate is 4.3. This abnormal phenomenon in our country is worthy of further study. Therefore, Granger causality test, impulse response analysis and variance decomposition are used to test the growth rate of generalized money supply and CPI growth rate in the long term (1991-2016) and short-term (2007-2016), respectively. It is found that, in the long run, money supply M 2 and CPI still maintain a significant correlation. But in the short term, money supply growth can not be fully reflected in CPI growth. On this basis, the relationship between money supply and CPI in the short term is further studied, and the dynamic relationship between the two in the short term is analyzed by using the VAR model method from the perspective of impulse response function and variance decomposition. Through the analysis of the above conclusions, it is pointed out that due to the increase of quasi monetary quantity, the rapid expansion of fictitious economy and the overheating of real estate market, the relationship between money supply and CPI is weakened in the short term, and the corresponding policy suggestions are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：首都经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F822.2;F726

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