CAFTA贸易效应及贸易趋势研究

发布时间：2018-07-07 13:56

本文选题：中国东盟自由贸易区 + 贸易创造效应　；参考：《沈阳工业大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：CAFTA作为目前世界上最大的自由贸易区对东盟、中国及世界经济和世界人民的生活都产生巨大影响。然而，中国与东盟成员国不仅获得发展的机遇，同样面对不可避免的阻碍和挑战。目前，中国东盟自由贸易区经历了“黄金十年”，将步入更高层次、更高要求、更高水平的“钻石十年”。所以，深化研究CAFTA所产生的贸易效应及发展趋势是十分必要的，这对于中国和东盟的经贸发展来说至关重要。论文以关税同盟、自由贸易区理论为基础，分析CAFTA的贸易创造效应和贸易转移效应，运用引力模型对效应的产生进行实证检验。第三章简单介绍中国东盟自由贸易区的贸易现状。第四章通过理论分析与实证检验得到：一、中国东盟自由贸易区存在贸易创造效应和贸易转移效应；二、贸易创造效应大于贸易转移效应；三、CAFTA的正的贸易效应并不大，，双边需要积极发挥中国东盟自由贸易区的作用。对论文研究结果进行分析，寻求目前中国东盟自由贸易区的建设和发展中面对的困难和挑战。分析结果表明：目前，中国东盟自由贸易区的发展存在不可避免的阻碍，包括东盟国家经济发展水平的差异性、CAFTA成员的政治关系紧张性及制度的不完善等阻碍。第五章对于改善并解决阻碍因素提出了一些合理的建议：首要任务是增强彼此的信任，消除东盟成员国的疑虑；中国援助东盟落后国家基础设施建设，可以帮助缩小东盟国家之间的经济水平差距；尽快解决争端机制的弊端，为双边企业提供公平公正，可靠可信的贸易争端解决办法；促进贸易自由化，继续减少非关税壁垒，中国东盟自由贸易区的未来的贸易将会有更大的发展。
[Abstract]:CAFTA, as the largest free trade area in the world at present, has a great impact on ASEAN, China, world economy and the life of people all over the world. However, China and ASEAN members not only get opportunities for development, but also face inevitable obstacles and challenges. At present, China-ASEAN Free Trade area has gone through a golden decade, will enter a higher level, higher requirements, a higher level of "Diamond decade." Therefore, it is necessary to deepen the research on the trade effect and development trend of CAFTA, which is very important for the economic and trade development between China and ASEAN. Based on the theory of customs union and free trade area, this paper analyzes the trade creation effect and trade transfer effect of CAFTA, and makes an empirical test on the generation of the effect by using the gravity model. The third chapter briefly introduces the current situation of trade of China-ASEAN Free Trade area. The fourth chapter through theoretical analysis and empirical test: first, there are trade creation effect and trade transfer effect in China-ASEAN Free Trade area; second, trade creation effect is larger than trade transfer effect; third, the positive trade effect of CAFTA is not great. The two sides need to give full play to the role of China-ASEAN Free Trade area. This paper analyzes the research results and seeks the difficulties and challenges in the construction and development of the China-ASEAN Free Trade area. The results show that: at present, the development of China-ASEAN Free Trade area has inevitable obstacles, including the differences in the level of economic development of ASEAN countries and the political tension of CAFTA members and the imperfections of the system. The fifth chapter puts forward some reasonable suggestions to improve and solve the obstacles: the first task is to enhance mutual trust and remove the doubts of ASEAN member countries, and China will assist the infrastructure construction of the backward ASEAN countries. It could help to narrow the gap in economic levels among ASEAN countries; resolve the drawbacks of dispute mechanisms as soon as possible; provide fair, just and credible solutions to trade disputes for bilateral enterprises; promote trade liberalization and continue to reduce non-tariff barriers, The future trade of China-ASEAN Free Trade area will have greater development.
【学位授予单位】：沈阳工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F752.7

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