贵州出口产品部门碳排放的关联效应研究
发布时间：2018-07-15 22:42
【摘要】：据全球碳预算2016年报告显示,目前全球范围内CO_2排放总量迅速增加,由1978年的193.22亿吨增加到2015年363亿吨(1)。“应对气候变化,实现低碳循环发展”正在逐渐成为当今世界发展的主题。据统计,中国2014年的CO_2排放总量已经高达97.61亿吨,成为全球温室气体排放最大的国家之一。碳排放量的高速增长让全球目光不约而同地锁定中国,中国面临的减排压力与日俱增。聚焦贵州,作为当前我国重要能源基地,本省煤炭产量丰富,但是长期以来形成的粗放生产方式,导致单位产品的能源消耗强度及污染排放量相对较严重。基于此,本文试图选取西部的贵州、中部的河南、东部的山东,运用Matlab R2016b软件与投入产出模型相结合的方式,基于其各自最新的2012年投入产出数据以及能源消耗数据,从产业和贸易融合的视角,利用产品部门影响力和感应度系数分析法,最终构建出出口产品部门隐含碳排放模型及关联系数指标模型。期望通过三个省份的横向对比,探寻其异同,最终为贵州通过出口产品结构调整来降低碳排放提供一些数据支撑及政策建议。通过本文实证研究发现:1.碳排放强度方面。(1)综合考虑出口总产值之后,通过计算单位产值平均直接和隐含碳排放强度,发现贵州无论是2.4551吨/万元的平均直接碳排放强度还是5.7094吨/万元的平均隐含碳排放强度的排名均位居三个省份之首;(2)三个省份中不管是直接碳排放量,还是隐含碳排放的比重,第二产业都是最大的,并且和第一、三产业相差十分悬殊。贵州更甚,第二产业的直接和隐含碳排放占比都超过了99%。2.影响力系数方面。(1)出口产品部门影响力系数方面,贵州相较于其他两个省份,系数大于1的部门有15个,主要集中于第二产业中的制造业,电气、机械及器材制造业,交通运输设备制造业,燃气生产和供应业分别占据影响力前三名;(2)出口产品部门隐含碳排放影响力系数方面,贵州相较于其他两个省份,系数大于1的部门为10个,也全部集中在第二产业。非金属制品业,石油加工及核燃料加工业,化学工业隐含碳排放影响力系数高居前三位。3.感应度系数方面。(1)出口产品部门感应度系数方面,贵州相较于其他两个省份,系数大于1的部门的个数为9个,均属于第二产业,排名前三的分别为:纺织业,其他制造业,金属矿采选业;(2)出口产品部门碳排放感应度系数方面,贵州相较于其他两个省份,系数大于1的产品部门的个数有7个,均为第二产业,排名前三的分别为:其他制造业,纺织业,金属矿采选业。基于上述实证事实,贵州若想在贸易开放条件下寻求一条低碳发展道路,可以基于各出口部门的碳排放关联度水平,主要从合理调整出口产品结构、注重经济政策和产业政策有机结合、加强出口企业低碳管理、培育贸易竞争新优势等方面着手。
[Abstract]:According to the 2016 Global carbon Budget report, total CO2 emissions are increasing rapidly worldwide, from 19.322 billion tonnes in 1978 to 36.3 billion tonnes (1) in 2015. To deal with climate change and realize low-carbon cycle development "is gradually becoming the theme of world development." According to statistics, China's total CO2 emissions reached 9.761 billion tons in 2014, making it one of the largest greenhouse gas emitters in the world. The rapid growth of carbon emissions has set the world's sights on China, which is under increasing pressure to reduce emissions. As an important energy base in China, Guizhou province is rich in coal production, but the extensive production mode has been formed for a long time, which leads to the relatively serious energy consumption intensity and pollution emissions per unit product. Based on this, this paper tries to select Guizhou in the west, Henan in the middle and Shandong in the east, and combine Matlab R2016b software with input-output model, based on their latest input-output data in 2012 and energy consumption data. From the perspective of industry and trade integration, the implied carbon emission model and the correlation coefficient index model of export product sector are constructed by using the method of product sector influence and sensitivity coefficient analysis. It is expected that through the horizontal comparison of the three provinces the similarities and differences will be explored and finally some data support and policy suggestions will be provided for Guizhou to reduce its carbon emissions through the restructuring of export products. Through this empirical study, we find that: 1. In terms of carbon emission intensity. (1) after considering the total export value, the average direct and implied carbon emission intensity per unit of output value is calculated. It is found that Guizhou ranks first among the three provinces in terms of the average direct carbon emission intensity of 2.4551 tons / 10,000 yuan or the average implied carbon emission intensity of 5.7094 tons / 10,000 yuan. (2) No matter direct carbon emissions in the three provinces, Or the proportion of implied carbon emissions, the second industry is the largest, and the first and third industries are very different. Even more, the share of direct and implied carbon emissions in the secondary sector is more than 99. 2. (1) in terms of the impact coefficient of the export products sector, there are 15 sectors with a coefficient greater than 1 in Guizhou compared to the other two provinces, mainly concentrated in the manufacturing, electrical, mechanical and equipment manufacturing industries in the secondary industry. Transportation equipment manufacturing industry, gas production and supply industry respectively occupy the top three influential factors. (2) in terms of implied carbon emission impact coefficient in export products sector, Guizhou has 10 sectors with a coefficient greater than 1 compared with the other two provinces. All are also concentrated in the secondary industry. Non-metallic products industry, petroleum processing and nuclear fuel processing industry, chemical industry implied carbon emissions impact coefficient in the top three. 3. In terms of sensitivity coefficient. (1) in terms of sensitivity coefficient of export products sector, compared with the other two provinces, the number of departments with coefficients greater than 1 in Guizhou is 9, all of them belong to the secondary industry, the top three are respectively: textile industry, other manufacturing industries, (2) compared with the other two provinces, Guizhou has seven product sectors with a coefficient greater than 1, all of which are secondary industries, the top three of which are: other manufacturing industries. Textile industry, metal ore mining and separation industry. Based on the above empirical facts, if Guizhou wants to seek a low-carbon development road under the condition of open trade, it can adjust the structure of export products mainly from the level of carbon emission correlation of various export sectors. Pay attention to the organic combination of economic policy and industrial policy, strengthen low carbon management of export enterprises, cultivate new competitive advantage of trade and so on.
【学位授予单位】：贵州财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：X22;F752.62
[Abstract]:According to the 2016 Global carbon Budget report, total CO2 emissions are increasing rapidly worldwide, from 19.322 billion tonnes in 1978 to 36.3 billion tonnes (1) in 2015. To deal with climate change and realize low-carbon cycle development "is gradually becoming the theme of world development." According to statistics, China's total CO2 emissions reached 9.761 billion tons in 2014, making it one of the largest greenhouse gas emitters in the world. The rapid growth of carbon emissions has set the world's sights on China, which is under increasing pressure to reduce emissions. As an important energy base in China, Guizhou province is rich in coal production, but the extensive production mode has been formed for a long time, which leads to the relatively serious energy consumption intensity and pollution emissions per unit product. Based on this, this paper tries to select Guizhou in the west, Henan in the middle and Shandong in the east, and combine Matlab R2016b software with input-output model, based on their latest input-output data in 2012 and energy consumption data. From the perspective of industry and trade integration, the implied carbon emission model and the correlation coefficient index model of export product sector are constructed by using the method of product sector influence and sensitivity coefficient analysis. It is expected that through the horizontal comparison of the three provinces the similarities and differences will be explored and finally some data support and policy suggestions will be provided for Guizhou to reduce its carbon emissions through the restructuring of export products. Through this empirical study, we find that: 1. In terms of carbon emission intensity. (1) after considering the total export value, the average direct and implied carbon emission intensity per unit of output value is calculated. It is found that Guizhou ranks first among the three provinces in terms of the average direct carbon emission intensity of 2.4551 tons / 10,000 yuan or the average implied carbon emission intensity of 5.7094 tons / 10,000 yuan. (2) No matter direct carbon emissions in the three provinces, Or the proportion of implied carbon emissions, the second industry is the largest, and the first and third industries are very different. Even more, the share of direct and implied carbon emissions in the secondary sector is more than 99. 2. (1) in terms of the impact coefficient of the export products sector, there are 15 sectors with a coefficient greater than 1 in Guizhou compared to the other two provinces, mainly concentrated in the manufacturing, electrical, mechanical and equipment manufacturing industries in the secondary industry. Transportation equipment manufacturing industry, gas production and supply industry respectively occupy the top three influential factors. (2) in terms of implied carbon emission impact coefficient in export products sector, Guizhou has 10 sectors with a coefficient greater than 1 compared with the other two provinces. All are also concentrated in the secondary industry. Non-metallic products industry, petroleum processing and nuclear fuel processing industry, chemical industry implied carbon emissions impact coefficient in the top three. 3. In terms of sensitivity coefficient. (1) in terms of sensitivity coefficient of export products sector, compared with the other two provinces, the number of departments with coefficients greater than 1 in Guizhou is 9, all of them belong to the secondary industry, the top three are respectively: textile industry, other manufacturing industries, (2) compared with the other two provinces, Guizhou has seven product sectors with a coefficient greater than 1, all of which are secondary industries, the top three of which are: other manufacturing industries. Textile industry, metal ore mining and separation industry. Based on the above empirical facts, if Guizhou wants to seek a low-carbon development road under the condition of open trade, it can adjust the structure of export products mainly from the level of carbon emission correlation of various export sectors. Pay attention to the organic combination of economic policy and industrial policy, strengthen low carbon management of export enterprises, cultivate new competitive advantage of trade and so on.
【学位授予单位】：贵州财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：X22;F752.62
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