基于哈肯模型的电子废弃物回收系统演化机制的研究
发布时间：2018-07-16 18:25
【摘要】：近年来，空前繁荣的全球电子产品消费热潮产生大量的电子废弃物，电子废弃物回收处理的企业也越来越多，尤其是不正规的小作坊、小企业日益增加，这使正规企业的电子废弃物回收比率一直处于比较低的状态，而且电子废弃物回收处理的发展状况一直没有明显的提升与改善。为了改变这种低迷的现状，我们需要更加深入理解电子废弃物回收系统的内在演化机理，分析电子废弃物回收处理系统未来的发展趋势，以期为经济增效和技术进步提供参考。 本文从系统演化的角度出发，运用哈肯模型对电子废弃物回收系统进行建模，进而分析系统演进方式和演化机理。为了甄别出系统的序参量，，首先利用“投入产出”模型得出回收系统状态变量的指标集合，对各状态变量指标进行定义与说明，并搜集各指标的实际数据，运用熵权法计算出每个状态变量对应的综合评价值（也就是各指标的权重值）。按照计算出的综合评价值数据对状态变量在系统中的重要程度进行从大到小排序。选取综合评价值排名靠前，在系统中影响较大的三个状态变量：正规企业回收率、回收处理成本、综合处置率。 从电子废弃物回收系统的演化机理出发，构建出基于电子废弃物回收系统的哈肯模型。根据哈肯模型绝热近似的特性，以中国13个省市区的实际数据为样本，将熵权法得到的权重最高的三个状态参量任选两个带入模型进行试算验证，通过试算验证表明正规回收企业的回收率是控制电子废弃物回收系统演化的序参量。 最后，根据之前试算验证的结果，选取正规企业回收率为序参量，综合处置率为状态参量进行建模运算，结合中国13省市区的实际数据带入模型运算，可得我国电子废弃物回收系统的未来演化状态预测趋势，由模型预测可以发现：我国各省市的电子废弃物回收系统发展良莠不齐，总体发展趋势不容乐观，在未来8年时间里，各省市综合处置率将会出现明显下降，同时正规企业回收率一直处于平稳状态，并没有显著的提升。 所以，在提升正规企业回收率的同时也要重视综合处置率的提高，注重电子废弃物回收处理的产能提高。对不发达地区提高重视程度，建设偏远地区的电子废弃物回收处理基础设施。通过技术创新与结构升级来提高电子废弃物的回收处理能力，更好地发挥电子废弃物回收系统正规企业回收率与综合处置率的协同作用，推进电子废弃物回收处理系统从无序向有序演化。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the unprecedented boom in the global consumption of electronic products has produced a large amount of e-waste, and more enterprises are recycling and disposing of electronic wastes, especially in informal small workshops, and small enterprises are increasing day by day. This makes the electronic waste recovery ratio of the formal enterprises in a relatively low state, and the development of electronic waste recycling treatment has not been significantly improved. In order to change the present situation, we need to understand the internal evolution mechanism of e-waste recovery system and analyze the development trend of e-waste recovery system in the future, in order to provide reference for economic efficiency and technological progress. In this paper, from the point of view of system evolution, we use Harken model to model the electronic waste recovery system, and then analyze the evolution mode and evolution mechanism of the system. In order to identify the order parameters of the system, the index set of the state variables of the recovery system is obtained by using the "input-output" model, the indexes of each state variable are defined and explained, and the actual data of each index are collected. The entropy weight method is used to calculate the comprehensive evaluation value corresponding to each state variable (that is, the weight value of each index). The importance of state variables in the system is sorted from large to small according to the calculated data of comprehensive evaluation value. There are three state variables that have great influence in the system: recovery rate of formal enterprise, cost of recovery treatment and comprehensive disposal rate. Based on the evolution mechanism of electronic waste recovery system, a Harken model based on electronic waste recovery system is constructed. According to the characteristics of the Hacken model adiabatic approximation, taking the actual data from 13 provinces and municipalities in China as the sample, two of the three state parameters with the highest weight obtained by the entropy weight method are chosen to be brought into the model for trial calculation. The experimental results show that the recovery rate is the order parameter to control the evolution of the electronic waste recovery system. Finally, according to the results of pre-trial calculation, the formal enterprise recovery rate is selected as the order parameter, the comprehensive disposal rate is used as the state parameter to model the operation, and the actual data of 13 provinces and municipalities in China are combined with the actual data to be brought into the model operation. The prediction trend of the future evolution state of electronic waste recovery system in China can be obtained. From the model prediction, it can be found that the development of electronic waste recovery system in various provinces and cities of our country is mixed, the overall development trend is not optimistic, in the next 8 years, The comprehensive disposal rate of each province and city will decrease obviously, and the recovery rate of the formal enterprise will be stable, and there will be no significant improvement. Therefore, in order to improve the recovery rate of the formal enterprises, we should pay attention to the improvement of the comprehensive disposal rate and the productivity of the recycling and disposal of electronic wastes. We should pay more attention to the undeveloped areas and build the electronic waste recovery and treatment infrastructure in remote areas. Through technological innovation and structural upgrading to improve the capacity of e-waste recovery and treatment, and better play the e-waste recovery system of the formal enterprise recovery and comprehensive disposal rate of synergy, Promote the electronic waste recovery and treatment system from disorder to orderly evolution.
【学位授予单位】：杭州电子科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：X705;F713.2
本文编号：2127255
[Abstract]:In recent years, the unprecedented boom in the global consumption of electronic products has produced a large amount of e-waste, and more enterprises are recycling and disposing of electronic wastes, especially in informal small workshops, and small enterprises are increasing day by day. This makes the electronic waste recovery ratio of the formal enterprises in a relatively low state, and the development of electronic waste recycling treatment has not been significantly improved. In order to change the present situation, we need to understand the internal evolution mechanism of e-waste recovery system and analyze the development trend of e-waste recovery system in the future, in order to provide reference for economic efficiency and technological progress. In this paper, from the point of view of system evolution, we use Harken model to model the electronic waste recovery system, and then analyze the evolution mode and evolution mechanism of the system. In order to identify the order parameters of the system, the index set of the state variables of the recovery system is obtained by using the "input-output" model, the indexes of each state variable are defined and explained, and the actual data of each index are collected. The entropy weight method is used to calculate the comprehensive evaluation value corresponding to each state variable (that is, the weight value of each index). The importance of state variables in the system is sorted from large to small according to the calculated data of comprehensive evaluation value. There are three state variables that have great influence in the system: recovery rate of formal enterprise, cost of recovery treatment and comprehensive disposal rate. Based on the evolution mechanism of electronic waste recovery system, a Harken model based on electronic waste recovery system is constructed. According to the characteristics of the Hacken model adiabatic approximation, taking the actual data from 13 provinces and municipalities in China as the sample, two of the three state parameters with the highest weight obtained by the entropy weight method are chosen to be brought into the model for trial calculation. The experimental results show that the recovery rate is the order parameter to control the evolution of the electronic waste recovery system. Finally, according to the results of pre-trial calculation, the formal enterprise recovery rate is selected as the order parameter, the comprehensive disposal rate is used as the state parameter to model the operation, and the actual data of 13 provinces and municipalities in China are combined with the actual data to be brought into the model operation. The prediction trend of the future evolution state of electronic waste recovery system in China can be obtained. From the model prediction, it can be found that the development of electronic waste recovery system in various provinces and cities of our country is mixed, the overall development trend is not optimistic, in the next 8 years, The comprehensive disposal rate of each province and city will decrease obviously, and the recovery rate of the formal enterprise will be stable, and there will be no significant improvement. Therefore, in order to improve the recovery rate of the formal enterprises, we should pay attention to the improvement of the comprehensive disposal rate and the productivity of the recycling and disposal of electronic wastes. We should pay more attention to the undeveloped areas and build the electronic waste recovery and treatment infrastructure in remote areas. Through technological innovation and structural upgrading to improve the capacity of e-waste recovery and treatment, and better play the e-waste recovery system of the formal enterprise recovery and comprehensive disposal rate of synergy, Promote the electronic waste recovery and treatment system from disorder to orderly evolution.
【学位授予单位】：杭州电子科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：X705;F713.2
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