国际垂直专业化分工视角下生产者服务贸易与中间品贸易互动关系研究

发布时间：2018-09-04 13:36

【摘要】：随着经济全球化和产品分割技术的深入发展,特定产品的全部生产过程被分割为不同组成部分,形成了以生产区段、工序和环节为对象的国际垂直专业化分工体系,导致全球范围内中间产品贸易额大幅上升。生产者服务是中间品贸易必不可少的中间投入,也是将分散的生产布局联结起来的重要纽带,生产者服务贸易与中间品贸易内含着一种互动机制。在国际垂直专业化分工背景下,生产者服务贸易与中间品贸易相互关系如何?两者发展能否形成良性互动关系?对这些问题的解答直接关系到我国国际分工地位的改善以及对外贸易的可持续发展。在理论分析基础上,对生产者服务贸易与中间品贸易互动关系进行了模型和机制分析。并据此提出如下假设：(1)中间品进出口贸易对生产者服务进出口贸易存在正向影响;(2)生产者服务贸易进口依赖度对中间品出口贸易存在负向影响；(3)生产者服务贸易国际竞争力对中间品出口贸易存在正向影响。基于上述假设并借鉴前人做法,选取我国加工贸易进出口变量作为中间品贸易水平替代变量,构建三个向量误差修正模型(VECM),对1997-2013年生产者服务贸易与加工贸易数据进行实证检验,并运用格兰杰因果关系检验以及冲击反应函数分析变量之间的短期动态关系。研究结果表明：(1)加工贸易进出口与生产者服务进出口贸易之间存在正向长期均衡关系,加工贸易进出口额的对数增加1%,生产者服务贸易进出口额的对数上升0.9242%;加工贸易进出口是生产者服务进出口贸易的格兰杰原因,后者则并非前者的格兰杰原因;加工贸易进出口对生产者服务贸易进出口的扰动第一期的响应值为0,第十期响应达到最大值0.5,生产者服务贸易进出口对加工贸易进出口的扰动第一期响应值约为0.6,第五期达到最大值0.9；(2)加工贸易出口与生产者服务贸易进口依赖度之间存在负向长期稳定关系,生产者服务贸易进口依赖度的对数增加1%,加工贸易出口额的对数下降0.9707%;生产者服务贸易进口依赖度是加工贸易出口的格兰杰原因,后者则不是前者的格兰杰原因;加工贸易出口对生产者服务贸易进口依赖度扰动的第一期响应值为0,之后在-0.2左右水平上保持相对稳定,生产者服务贸易进口依赖度对加工贸易出口的扰动第一期响应值约为1.2,第二期响应达到最大值1.4左右；(3)加工贸易出口和生产者服务贸易国际竞争力之间存在正向长期稳定关系,生产者服务贸易国际竞争力对数每上升1%,加工贸易出口额对数上升0.0531%；加工贸易出口与生产者服务贸易国际竞争力之间存在双向格兰杰因果关系：加工贸易出口对生产者服务贸易国际竞争力扰动的正向响应在第五期达到最大值1.0后持续下降,生产者服务贸易国际竞争力对加工贸易出口扰动的响应在第三期达到最大值0.5,之后则呈现负向响应。最后,从推动生产者服务业与制造业的融合发展,积极承接国际服务外包业务,促进投资和贸易自由化,加强两者互动发展的体制机制建设等方面提出进一步促进两者良性互动发展的政策建议。
[Abstract]:With the development of economic globalization and product segmentation technology, the whole production process of a particular product is divided into different parts, forming an international vertical specialization division of labor system with production sections, processes and links as the object, resulting in a substantial increase in the volume of intermediate products trade worldwide. Indispensable intermediate input is also an important link linking the decentralized production layout. producer service trade and intermediate goods trade contain an interactive mechanism. under the background of international vertical specialization, what is the relationship between producer service trade and intermediate goods trade? Can the development of the two forms a positive interactive relationship? On the basis of theoretical analysis, this paper analyzes the model and mechanism of the interaction between producer service trade and intermediate goods trade, and puts forward the following assumptions: (1) import and export of intermediate goods trade to producer service import and export. There is a positive impact on trade; (2) the degree of dependence on imports of producer services trade has a negative impact on export trade of intermediate goods; (3) the international competitiveness of producer services trade has a positive impact on export trade of intermediate goods. Three Vector Error Correction Models (VECM) are constructed to test the data of producer service trade and processing trade from 1997 to 2013. Granger causality test and impact response function are used to analyze the short-term dynamic relationship between the variables. The results show that: (1) Import and export of processing trade and producer service import. There is a positive long-term equilibrium relationship between export trade and processing trade. The logarithm of import and export of processing trade increases by 1% and that of producer service trade increases by 0.9242%; processing trade import and export is the Granger cause of producer service import and export trade, while the latter is not the Granger cause of producer service import and export; processing trade import and export is the service of producer. The response value of the first phase of trade disturbance is 0, the tenth phase is 0.5, the first phase is 0.6, and the fifth phase is 0.9. (2) There is a negative long-term stable relationship between the export of processing trade and the import dependence of producer service trade. The logarithm of producer's dependence on import of service trade increases by 1%, and the logarithm of processing trade exports decreases by 0.9707%; producer's dependence on import of service trade is the Granger cause of processing trade exports, while the latter is not the Granger cause of the former; the first-stage response of processing trade exports to the disturbance of producer's dependence on import of service trade The first phase response value of producer's dependence on import of service trade to the disturbance of processing trade export is about 1.2, and the second phase response value is about 1.4. (3) There is a positive long-term stable relationship between processing trade export and producer's international competitiveness of service trade. The logarithm of international competitiveness of trade in services increases by 1%, and the logarithm of export value of processing trade increases by 0.0531%. There is a two-way Granger causality between export value of processing trade and international competitiveness of producer trade in services: the positive response of export value of processing trade to the disturbance of international competitiveness of producer trade in services reaches the maximum value of 1.0 in the fifth period. The international competitiveness of producer trade in services has reached a maximum of 0.5 in the third phase, and then showed a negative response. Finally, from promoting the integration of producer services and manufacturing, actively undertake international service outsourcing, promote investment and trade liberalization, and strengthen the interaction between the two. And put forward policy suggestions to further promote the positive interaction between them.
【学位授予单位】：中国海洋大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F752.68

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