全球化趋势下的人民币汇率体制改革与中国进出口贸易的相关性研究

发布时间：2018-09-03 20:35

【摘要】：全球化趋势是当代人类社会发展的一个显著特征,涉及经济、科技、社会以至价值观念和生活方式的趋同化。而中国自改革开放以来,大力发展了出口导向型经济,1978年中国进出口贸易总额206.4亿美元,仅占当时世界贸易总额的0.78%,在世界上无足轻重。2014年,中国进出口贸易总额达到4.3万亿美元,比1978年增长了208倍,成为世界第一货物贸易大国。在这一过程中,人民币汇率体制进行了四次大的改革①,这些改革直接带来了人民币汇率的波动,然而除了个别年份,中国进出口贸易总额基本每年都保持了较高的增长水平。由于改革开放初政府全面管制外汇,因此与很多国家不同,人民币汇率主要受央行政策影响,而央行政策又由国际形势和国内经济发展需要决定。在全球化趋势下,进出口贸易是汇率体制改革的经济外因,而货币政策则是汇率体制改革的经济内因。本研究报告分析人民币汇率改革进程和历年中国进出口贸易数据,结合巴拉萨一萨缪尔森效应②、蒙代尔不可能三角③理论,运用事件分析法展开分析,研究在全球化趋势下的人民币汇率体制改革与中国进出口贸易的相关性,以期找出促进中国经济和贸易增长的对策建议。
[Abstract]:The trend of globalization is a remarkable feature of the development of contemporary human society, involving the convergence of economy, science and technology, society and even values and lifestyles. Since the reform and opening up, China has vigorously developed an export-oriented economy. In 1978, China's total import and export trade amounted to US $20.64 billion, accounting for only 0.78 percent of the world's total trade at that time. China's total import and export trade reached 4.3 trillion US dollars, a 208-fold increase over 1978, and China became the world's largest trading country in goods. In this process, the RMB exchange rate system has undergone four major reforms. These reforms have directly brought about the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate. However, except for a few years, the total volume of China's import and export trade has basically maintained a relatively high growth level every year. At the beginning of reform and opening up, the government completely controlled foreign exchange rate, so unlike many countries, the RMB exchange rate is mainly influenced by the central bank policy, which is determined by the international situation and the needs of domestic economic development. Under the trend of globalization, the import and export trade is the economic external cause of the exchange rate system reform, while the monetary policy is the economic internal cause of the exchange rate system reform. This research report analyzes the process of RMB exchange rate reform and China's import and export trade data over the years, combining the Barraza-Samuelson effect 2, Mondale impossible Triangle 3 theory, using event analysis method to carry out the analysis. This paper studies the relationship between the reform of RMB exchange rate system and China's import and export trade under the trend of globalization in order to find out the countermeasures and suggestions to promote the growth of China's economy and trade.
【学位授予单位】：暨南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F832.6;F752.6

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