中国对美国出口贸易持续时间研究
发布时间：2018-11-10 19:53
【摘要】：20世纪末期随着科学技术的进步和交通运输技术的发展,世界贸易模式由原来的产业间、产业内分工贸易模式向产品内分工贸易模式转变。世界贸易模式变化对中美贸易产生了影响,中美贸易量和贸易结构发生了巨大变化。中国对美国出口产品贸易量和贸易结构的变化引发了一系列新的贸易问题,其中较为突出的便是中国对美国出口产品贸易持续时间问题。贸易持续时间的增加对不同类型的产品的影响不同,哪些因素对中国对美国出口贸易持续时间有影响,如何利用这些因素来调控中国对美国出口贸易持续时间以促进中国对美国出口产品质量提高和产业结构升级成为了当务之急。传统国际贸易理论主要从贸易对象、贸易结构等角度对国际贸易进行研究,但很少从贸易持续时间角度进行研究分析,因此传统国际贸易理论无法完全解释贸易持续时间问题。贸易持续时间理论是近年来新兴起的一个研究方向,贸易持续时间是指某一产品从首次进入目的国市场到退出目的国市场所耗费的时间。本文利用生存分析方法从贸易持续时间角度对中国对美国出口贸易持续时间进行研究。本文首先阐述分析了中美贸易模式,分析了中美贸易模式的形成和发展过程,引入要素禀赋理论和李嘉图扩展模型进行了理论解释。接着本文引出了贸易持续时间问题,剖析了中国对美国出口产品贸易持续时间的影响因素,从理论角度解释了贸易持续时间的增加并非对所有类型的产品都有利,应当区别对待。实证研究部分本文首先简要介绍了生存分析方法的概念、种类以及相关模型,接着对所搜集的数据进行删失处理后利用生存分析方法中的Kaplan—Merier模型对中国对美国出口产品的贸易持续时间进行描述性统计,利用指数模型和Weibull模型对中国对美国出口产品贸易持续时间的影响因素进行相关性检验,最后利用Xprobit模型进行稳健性检验。实证研究结果表明出口产品的要素禀赋类型、出口产品初始贸易额、出口产品单位价值、美国的经济状况和中国的经济状况对中国对美国出口产品的贸易持续时间均有显著影响。根据实证研究结果本文提出了相关政策建议,希望能为中国对美国出口贸易的持续稳定发展提供指导,也能为中国对美国出口贸易的相关研究提供理论依据。
[Abstract]:At the end of the 20th century, with the progress of science and technology and the development of transportation technology, the mode of world trade changed from the mode of intra-industry division of labor to the mode of intra-product division of trade. The change of world trade mode has influenced the trade between China and the United States, and the volume and structure of trade between China and the United States have changed greatly. The change of the volume and structure of China's exports to the United States has caused a series of new trade problems, among which the more prominent one is the duration of China's trade with the United States. The increase in the duration of trade has different effects on different types of products, and what factors have an impact on the duration of China's export trade to the United States, How to use these factors to regulate the duration of China's export trade to the United States to promote the quality of China's exports to the United States and upgrade the industrial structure has become a top priority. The traditional international trade theory mainly studies the international trade from the aspects of trade object and trade structure, but seldom studies and analyses from the angle of trade duration, so the traditional international trade theory can not fully explain the trade duration problem. Trade duration theory is a new research direction in recent years. Trade duration refers to the time spent by a product from entering the market of the destination country to withdrawing from the market of the country of destination for the first time. In this paper, the survival analysis method is used to study the duration of China's export trade to the United States from the perspective of trade duration. Firstly, this paper analyzes the trade model between China and the United States, analyzes the formation and development process of Sino-US trade model, and introduces the theory of factor endowment and Ricardo expansion model to explain the theory. Then this paper introduces the issue of trade duration, analyzes the factors that affect the duration of China's trade with the United States, and explains theoretically that the increase of trade duration is not beneficial to all types of products. It should be treated differently. In the part of empirical research, the concept, types and relevant models of survival analysis methods are introduced briefly. Then delete the collected data and use the Kaplan-Merier model in the survival analysis method to make descriptive statistics on the duration of China's trade with the United States export products. This paper uses index model and Weibull model to test the influence factors of China on the duration of American export trade. Finally, the Xprobit model is used to test the robustness. The empirical results show that the types of factor endowment of export products, the initial trade volume of export products, the unit value of export products, U.S. economic conditions and China's economic conditions have a significant impact on the duration of Chinese exports to the United States. According to the results of empirical research, this paper puts forward some relevant policy recommendations, hoping to provide guidance for the sustainable and stable development of China's export trade to the United States, as well as theoretical basis for the relevant research on China's export trade to the United States.
【学位授予单位】：南京师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F752.62
本文编号：2323448
[Abstract]:At the end of the 20th century, with the progress of science and technology and the development of transportation technology, the mode of world trade changed from the mode of intra-industry division of labor to the mode of intra-product division of trade. The change of world trade mode has influenced the trade between China and the United States, and the volume and structure of trade between China and the United States have changed greatly. The change of the volume and structure of China's exports to the United States has caused a series of new trade problems, among which the more prominent one is the duration of China's trade with the United States. The increase in the duration of trade has different effects on different types of products, and what factors have an impact on the duration of China's export trade to the United States, How to use these factors to regulate the duration of China's export trade to the United States to promote the quality of China's exports to the United States and upgrade the industrial structure has become a top priority. The traditional international trade theory mainly studies the international trade from the aspects of trade object and trade structure, but seldom studies and analyses from the angle of trade duration, so the traditional international trade theory can not fully explain the trade duration problem. Trade duration theory is a new research direction in recent years. Trade duration refers to the time spent by a product from entering the market of the destination country to withdrawing from the market of the country of destination for the first time. In this paper, the survival analysis method is used to study the duration of China's export trade to the United States from the perspective of trade duration. Firstly, this paper analyzes the trade model between China and the United States, analyzes the formation and development process of Sino-US trade model, and introduces the theory of factor endowment and Ricardo expansion model to explain the theory. Then this paper introduces the issue of trade duration, analyzes the factors that affect the duration of China's trade with the United States, and explains theoretically that the increase of trade duration is not beneficial to all types of products. It should be treated differently. In the part of empirical research, the concept, types and relevant models of survival analysis methods are introduced briefly. Then delete the collected data and use the Kaplan-Merier model in the survival analysis method to make descriptive statistics on the duration of China's trade with the United States export products. This paper uses index model and Weibull model to test the influence factors of China on the duration of American export trade. Finally, the Xprobit model is used to test the robustness. The empirical results show that the types of factor endowment of export products, the initial trade volume of export products, the unit value of export products, U.S. economic conditions and China's economic conditions have a significant impact on the duration of Chinese exports to the United States. According to the results of empirical research, this paper puts forward some relevant policy recommendations, hoping to provide guidance for the sustainable and stable development of China's export trade to the United States, as well as theoretical basis for the relevant research on China's export trade to the United States.
【学位授予单位】：南京师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F752.62
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