广东省出口贸易的影响因素分析

发布时间：2018-11-17 16:39

【摘要】：纵观过去三十多年,我国的经济发展水平和出口贸易总值在改革开放以后发展尤其迅猛,显然,出口与经济发展之间存在一定的相关关系,提高出口量可以有效推进经济的增长。研究影响出口贸易的主要因素,并利用这些因素与出口总额建立计量模型分析各个因素对出口贸易的不同影响大小,对于完善出口贸易相关政策、确保出口贸易的可持续发展、推动国民经济稳定增长及提高一国的经济实力和国际竞争力均有重大意义。本文首先分析了广东省发展现状,在此基础上选取进口总额、科技与研发投资额、外资流入额、贸易合作方的GDP、广东省劳动力投入、我国出口商品价格指数、年平均汇率作为影响出口贸易的主要因素;根据散点图分析变量相关关系,剔除部分相关关系不明显的变量;再通过对序列的平稳性检验剔除部分不平稳变量后,利用剩余变量建立多元线性回归模型,并运用协整检验验证了变量之间存在长期均衡关系,结果表明伙伴国GDP对出口影响最为显著,其次为进口。进口、外商直接投资、伙伴国GDP变动—个百分点,分别会带来出口变动0.63、0.26、1.36个百分点。本文在分析出口贸易影响因素的基础上,将广东省的出口贸易与江苏省、山东省进行对比分析,分析结果显示广东省出口规模大于江苏省、山东省,加工贸易对贸易总额的贡献举足轻重,而且外资企业是出口主体的中坚力量;外贸依存度方面,广东省高于江苏省、山东省,导致其对国际市场变动尤其敏感;江苏省、山东省市场结构优于广东省。贸易摩擦方面,三个省的贸易摩擦形势比较严峻。文章最后根据目前对外贸易的特点,提出一些合理化对策。
[Abstract]:Throughout the past 30 years and more, the level of economic development and the total value of export trade in China have developed rapidly after the reform and opening up. Obviously, there is a certain correlation between export and economic development. Increasing exports can effectively boost economic growth. This paper studies the main factors influencing export trade, and uses these factors and total export volume to establish econometric model to analyze the different influence of each factor on export trade, which can improve the export trade related policies and ensure the sustainable development of export trade. It is of great significance to promote the steady growth of national economy and improve the economic strength and international competitiveness of a country. Based on the analysis of the present situation of Guangdong Province, this paper selects the total import amount, the investment in science and technology and R & D, the inflow of foreign capital, the labor input of GDP, Guangdong Province, and the export commodity price index of China. The annual average exchange rate is the main factor affecting export trade; According to the scattered plot analysis of variable correlation, eliminate the partial correlation of variables is not obvious; After eliminating some non-stationary variables, the multivariate linear regression model is established by using the residual variables, and the long-term equilibrium relationship between the variables is verified by cointegration test. The results show that GDP of partner countries has the most significant impact on exports, followed by imports. Imports, foreign direct investment, and partner countries' GDP changes-a percentage point, respectively, will bring export movements of 0.63or 0.261.36 percentage points. Based on the analysis of the influencing factors of export trade, this paper compares the export trade of Guangdong Province with that of Jiangsu Province and Shandong Province. The results show that the export scale of Guangdong Province is larger than that of Jiangsu Province and Shandong Province. The contribution of processing trade to the total amount of trade is very important, and foreign-funded enterprises are the backbone of the main body of export. In terms of dependence on foreign trade, Guangdong Province is higher than Jiangsu Province and Shandong Province, which is especially sensitive to the changes of international market, and the market structure of Jiangsu Province and Shandong Province is superior to that of Guangdong Province. In terms of trade friction, the situation of trade friction in the three provinces is relatively severe. Finally, according to the characteristics of foreign trade at present, some rational countermeasures are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：辽宁大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F752.62

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