山东省金融发展与对外贸易关系实证研究

发布时间：2018-11-17 19:20

【摘要】：区域金融发展与对外贸易关系的研究，是近年来经济界热门的研究话题之一。在世界经济全球化、一体化的过程中，金融和对外贸易逐渐成为现代经济发展过程中的核心和动力，，金融发展和国际贸易相互联系、渗透和促进，共同推进全球统一大市场的形成。山东省作为我国第三经济大省，金融发展一直处于落后状态。金融业的发展水平成为山东省经济进一步腾飞时发育不全的翅膀，影响了山东省经济的可持续健康发展。2013年8月7日，山东省提出了金融改革“22条”，金融发展的步伐已经迈开。以处于经济结构转型期的山东省作为研究对象，分析其金融发展与对外贸易的内在联系，符合山东省现阶段的经济发展形势和金融发展要求，具有重要的现实意义。本文对金融发展理论、对外贸易理论进行整理，在前人文献的基础上总结出金融发展对对外贸易的促进作用和金融抑制对对外贸易产生的阻碍作用。从纵向分析和横向对比两个角度，对山东省金融发展的规模和效率、山东省对外贸易发展的规模和结构进行了动态描述，发现从纵向上看，山东省金融发展的规模逐步扩大，金融发展效率进一步提高，山东省对外贸易发展迅速，长期存在较大的贸易顺差，在山东省的对外贸易商品结构中，工业制成品的比重远远高于初级产品，出口商品结构正慢慢优化。但在与江苏省和浙江省的横向对比分析中，发现江苏省和浙江省的金融规模远远高于山东省，并且差距越来越大；对于金融发展效率，浙江省的金融发展效率在不断的提高，山东省的金融发展效率呈下降态势，并且差距在不断扩大，江苏省的金融发展效率在三省中属于落后地位。通过对山东省金融发展与对外贸易总量的关系和山东省金融发展与对外贸易结构的关系分别进行单位根检验、协整检验和格兰杰实证检验，选取金融相关比率、保险市场发展水平和信贷转化率三个指标来衡量山东省的金融发展情况，用对外贸易依存度指标来衡量对外贸易总量，用工业制成品出口额占总出口额的比重来反映对外贸易结构情况，发现金融发展与对外贸易总量和对外贸易结构有着长期均衡的关系，金融发展水平的提高，能够带动对外贸易总量的增加和对外贸易结构的改善。在此基础上，本文提出了政策建议，山东省要进一步推动金融改革，加快金融化进程，从而推动山东省对外贸易的发展以及经济增长。
[Abstract]:The research on the relationship between regional financial development and foreign trade is one of the hottest research topics in economic circles in recent years. In the process of globalization and integration of the world economy, finance and foreign trade have gradually become the core and motive force in the process of modern economic development, and financial development and international trade are interlinked, infiltrated and promoted. Jointly promote the formation of a global unified market. Shandong Province, as the third largest province of economy, the financial development has been in a backward state. The level of development of the financial industry has become the wings of the development of Shandong Province, which has affected the sustainable and healthy development of the economy of Shandong Province. On August 7, 2013, Shandong Province put forward the "22 articles" of financial reform. The pace of financial development has begun. Taking Shandong Province, which is in the transition period of economic structure, as the object of study, it is of great practical significance to analyze the internal relationship between its financial development and foreign trade, which accords with the current economic development situation and financial development requirements of Shandong Province. In this paper, the theory of financial development and the theory of foreign trade are sorted out, and on the basis of previous literature, the author summarizes the promoting effect of financial development on foreign trade and the hindrance of financial repression to foreign trade. From the angle of vertical analysis and horizontal contrast, this paper describes dynamically the scale and efficiency of Shandong's financial development and the scale and structure of Shandong's foreign trade development. It is found that the scale of Shandong's financial development is gradually expanding from a vertical point of view. The efficiency of financial development has been further improved, and Shandong's foreign trade has developed rapidly, with a large trade surplus for a long time. In Shandong's foreign trade commodity structure, the proportion of manufactured products is far higher than that of primary products. The structure of export commodities is slowly being optimized. But in the horizontal comparative analysis with Jiangsu Province and Zhejiang Province, it is found that the financial scale of Jiangsu Province and Zhejiang Province is much higher than that of Shandong Province, and the gap between them is getting bigger and bigger. With regard to the financial development efficiency, the financial development efficiency of Zhejiang Province is constantly improving, and the financial development efficiency of Shandong Province is declining, and the gap is widening. The financial development efficiency of Jiangsu Province is in the backward position among the three provinces. Through the unit root test, cointegration test and Granger empirical test on the relationship between the financial development of Shandong Province and the total volume of foreign trade and the relationship between the financial development of Shandong Province and the structure of foreign trade, the financial correlation ratio is selected. The level of development of the insurance market and the conversion rate of credit are three indicators to measure the financial development of Shandong Province, and the total amount of foreign trade is measured by the index of dependence on foreign trade. The structure of foreign trade is reflected by the proportion of industrial manufactured exports to total exports. It is found that the financial development has a long-term equilibrium relationship with the total volume of foreign trade and the structure of foreign trade, and the level of financial development has improved. It can lead to the increase of the total amount of foreign trade and the improvement of the structure of foreign trade. On the basis of this, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions. Shandong Province should further promote financial reform and accelerate the process of financialization, so as to promote the development of foreign trade and economic growth of Shandong Province.
【学位授予单位】：山东师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F832.7;F752.8

【参考文献】